Pierre Massotte - Complex Decision-Making in Economy and Finance

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Pertinent to modern industry, administration, finance and society, the most pressing issue for firms today is how to reapproach the way we think and work in business. With topics ranging from improving productivity and coaxing economic growth after periods of market inactivity, Complex Decision-Making in Economy and Finance offers pragmatic solutions for dealing with the critical levels of disorder and chaos that have developed throughout the modern age. This book examines how to design complex products and systems, the benefits of collective intelligence and self-organization, and the best methods for handling risks in problematic environments. It also analyzes crises and how to manage them. This book is of benefit to companies and public bodies with regards to saving assets, reviving fortunes and laying the groundwork for robust, sustainable societal dividends. Examples, case studies, practical hints and guidelines illustrate the topics, particularly in finance.

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5 Conclusion: Different Types of CrisesC.1. The crises mesh C.2. Changing economic and industrial cultures

6 List of Abbreviations

7 References

8 Index

9 End User License Agreement

List of Tables

1 Chapter 5Table 5.1. Different interaction strategies between market entities

2 Chapter 10Table 10.1. The higher and lower orders

3 Chapter 16Table 16.1. Anomaly indicators

List of Illustrations

1 Chapter 1 Figure 1.1. An industrial MRP system with its feedback loops Figure 1.2. A flexible production system Figure 1.3. A dynamic industrial system with nonlinear interactions Figure 1.4. Positioning of paradigms in production management

2 Chapter 2 Figure 2.1. Two approaches to managing complex systems (from Pierre Massotte – H...

3 Chapter 4Figure 4.1. Cognitive agent modelFigure 4.2. Model of a reactive agentFigure 4.3. Structures of agent modelsFigure 4.4. The InteRRap hybrid agent model

4 Chapter 5Figure 5.1. Negotiation protocol with non-alternative offers between two agents

5 Chapter 6Figure 6.1. Conceptual architecture of a complex adaptive system

6 Chapter 7Figure 7.1. Cognitive agent modelFigure 7.2. Hierarchical structureFigure 7.3. Heterarchical structure

7 Chapter 8Figure 8.1. A “cellular manufacturing system”Figure 8.2. Hybrid structure

8 Chapter 10Figure 10.1. Representation of the CINSYS diagram: contentsFigure 10.2. Representation of the CINSYS diagram: contentsFigure 10.3. Semantic representation of the vertical axisFigure 10.4. Other semantic representation of the vertical axisFigure 10.5. Progressive structuring of nonlinear systemsFigure 10.6. Static system and scalable systemFigure 10.7. Semantic representation of the horizontal axisFigure 10.8. Semantic representation of the first diagonal axisFigure 10.9. Semantic representation of the second diagonal axisFigure 10.10. Hyperbolic representation of component-interaction duality Figure 10.11. RAGTIME evaluation Figure 10.12. RAGTIME evaluation

9 Chapter 11Figure 11.1. Dynamic pricing based on a supply–demand diagram (source: https://e...Figure 11.2. Carbon generation. For color versions of the figures in this book, ...Figure 11.3. Location of benzonitrile molecules in the Taurus Molecular Cloud 1 ...Figure 11.4. Complexification from anthracene to the “hexabenzocoronene” (comple...Figure 11.5. A representation of the fullerene molecule C60 and nanotube (credit...Figure 11.6. Image of a self-structuration in the universe. For color versions o...Figure 11.7. List of civilizations that disappeared along time (credit: Nigel Ha...Figure 11.8. Product life cycle including collapsed evolution (source: https://w...Figure 11.9. Complexity of the mortgage market (source: [WIK 19a]). For color ve... Figure 11.10. Marginal return of increasing complexity [TAI 88]

10 Chapter 12Figure 12.1. Example of a physical/fractal organization. For a color version of ...Figure 12.2. Reduced complexity through simulation analysis and complex graph th...Figure 12.3. Evolution of social innovation and emergence in any field of applic...

11 Chapter 14Figure 14.1. Peak oil production (source: Dr. C.J. Campbell/Petroconsultants)Figure 14.2. Simplified model for studying a complex energy system. The models u...

12 Chapter 15Figure 15.1. Inversion of yield curve over time. The graph shows the potential f...

13 Chapter 17Figure 17.1. Distinction between estimates and expectations in a crisis situatio...

14 Chapter 18Figure 18.1. The five dimensions of a company’s flexibility (5 M table) Figure 18.2. The effects of the crisis of confidence Figure 18.3. Banks’ exposure to subprime mortgages Figure 18.4. The effects of subprime on banks and the stock market Figure 18.5. The effects of subprime at the level of individuals, with their ban... Figure 18.6. Direct effects related to banksFigure 18.7. The effects of changes in securities

15 Chapter 19Figure 19.1. Hypercube whose corners (or vertices) are the 2n points in RnFigure 19.2. Feedback loops (source: http://www.businessdictionary.com/definitio...Figure 19.3. Example of positive feedback loopFigure 19.4. The positive feedback loop of population growthFigure 19.5. The main worldwide risks and their links. For color versions of the...Figure 19.6. Dollar hegemony. For color versions of the figures in this book, se...Figure 19.7. The IMF Special Drawing Rights basket of reserve currencies. For co...Figure 19.8. Reserve currency statusFigure 19.9. Nominal GDP for 2017. For color versions of the figures in this boo...Figure 19.10. Major currencies against gold 1900–2018. For color versions of the...Figure 19.11. The dollar sweeping aside everything. For color versions of the fi...

Guide

1 Cover

2 Table of Contents

3 Begin Reading

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