Ariel I. Ahram - War and Conflict in the Middle East and North Africa

1 Cover

2 Title Page War and Conflict in the Middle East and North Africa ARIEL I. AHRAM polity

3 Copyright Page

4 Abbreviations

5 Acknowledgments

6 Map

7 Introduction Which Mena? Why Mena? How to Read This Book Notes

8 Part I: Context 1 Accounting for War in the Middle East and North Africa First Cut: Frequency of War Second Cut: Conflict Types Third Cut: Conflict Magnitude Conclusion Notes 2 The MENA Security Predicament MENA’s Wars and Levels-of-Analysis Problems A Historical Sociology of War and Conflict in MENA Conclusion: A View from Beirut Notes

9 Part II: Conflict Traps Notes 3 Oil as Conflict Trap A Social History of Mena’s Oil Curse Oil and International Wars The Oil Price Cycle and Mena’s Regional Conflict Oil and Internal Wars Case Study: Oil and War in Libya Conclusion Notes 4 Identity as Conflict Trap Group Identities and States in the Middle East Ethnic Groups and the Equilibrium of Cooperation Why Ethnic War? Case Study: Making Ethnic War in Syria Conclusion Notes 5 Geopolitics as Conflict Trap Geopolitics as Practice and Discourse The Geopolitics of Colonialism Cold War Geopolitics and America’s Ascent Case Study: Pax Americana, Counterterrorism, and the Greater West Asian Crisis Conclusion Notes 6 Fragmentation, Integration, and War in the 2010s Proxy Wars and the Politics of Distant Proximities From Local Disputes to Civil War Libya Syria Yemen Networks Unwound A Thirty Years’ War? Notes 7 Peace and Peacemaking Defining Peace and Pursuing It The Evolution of MENA’s Peace Infrastructure Arab–Israeli Conflicts and the Question of Peace The Future of Peace, 2011 and Beyond Conclusion Notes

10 Conclusion Notes

11 Bibliography

12 Index

13 End User License Agreement

1 Chapter 1 Table 1.1Conflict-affected countries by fatalities, top twenty countries, 1989–2017 Table 1.2State, non-state, and one-sided violence in MENA, 1989–2017 Table 1.3Ten countries with the most terrorist events in 2018

2 Chapter 3 Table 3.1Marginal cost to produce one barrel of oil (or gas equivalent) in US dollars (20…

3 Chapter 4 Table 4.1Minority groups in MENA

4 Chapter 5 Table 5.1Soviet and Eastern European military technicians in late developing countries Table 5.2MENA states among the world’s top fifty arms importers, 1950–89 Table 5.3US drone strikes in Yemen, 2000–June 2019 Table 5.4MENA states among the world’s top fifty arms importers, 1990–2018

5 Chapter 7 Table 7.1International peace operations in MENA, 1948–2019

1 Introduction Figure 0.1MENA’s share of global battle deaths in 2017

2 Chapter 1 Figure 1.1Percentage of conflict in MENA countries Figure 1.2Number of conflicts by year Figure 1.3Years at war for MENA countries, 1945–2017 Figure 1.4Interstate conflicts, MENA v. the world Figure 1.5Internal wars, MENA v. the world Figure 1.6Internationalized civil wars, MENA v. the world

3 Chapter 3 Figure 3.1MENA share of global oil production Figure 3.2Oil and gas income per capita (2005) Figure 3.3Top MENA oil producers (millions of barrels)

4 Chapter 4 Figure 4.1Fractionalization in selected MENA countries

5 Chapter 5 Figure 5.1US troop deployment by region, 1950–2013 Figure 5.2US troops deployed to MENA as percentage of forces worldwide, 1980–2016 Figure 5.3Sources of MENA arms imports, 2010–17

6 Chapter 6 Figure 6.1Battle-related deaths in Syria, March 2011–January 2020 Figure 6.2Deaths by parties responsible, Syria, March 2011–January 2020 Figure 6.3Change in light emissions by province, Syria, 2011–17

1 Cover

2 Contents

3 Title Page War and Conflict in the Middle East and North Africa ARIEL I. AHRAM polity

4 Copyright Page

5 Abbreviations

6 Acknowledgments

7 Map

8 Introduction

9 Begin Reading

10 Conclusion

11 Bibliography

12 Index

13 End User License Agreement

1 iii

2 iv

3 viii

4 ix

5 x

6 xi

7 1

8 2

9 3

10 4

11 5

12 6

13 7

14 8

15 9

16 11

17 13

18 14

19 15

20 16

21 17

22 18

23 19

24 20

25 21

26 22

27 23

28 24

29 25

30 26

31 27

32 28

33 29

34 30

35 31

36 32

37 33

38 34

39 35

40 36

41 37

42 38

43 39

44 40

45 41

46 42

47 43

48 44

49 45

50 46

51 47

52 48

53 49

54 50

55 51

56 53

57 54

58 55

59 57

60 58

61 59

62 60

63 61

64 62

65 63

66 64

67 65

68 66

69 67

70 68

71 69

72 70

73 71

74 72

75 73

76 74

77 75

78 76

79 77

80 78

81 79

82 80

83 81

84 82

85 83

86 84

87 85

88 86

89 87

90 88

91 89

92 90

93 91

94 92

95 93

96 94

97 95

98 96

99 97

100 98

101 99

102 100

103 101

104 102

105 103

106 104

107 105

108 106

109 107

110 108

111 109

112 110

113 111

114 112

115 113

116 114

117 115

118 116

119 117

120 118

121 119

122 120

123 121

124 122

125 123

126 124

127 125

128 126

129 127

130 128

131 129

132 130

133 131

134 132

135 133

136 134

137 135

138 136

139 137

140 138

141 139

142 140

143 141

144 142

145 143

146 144

147 145

148 146

149 147

150 148

151 149

152 150

153 151

154 152

155 153

156 154

157 155

158 156

159 157

160 158

161 159

162 160

163 161

164 162

165 163

166 164

167 165

168 166

169 167

170 168

171 169

172 170

173 171

174 172

175 173

176 174

177 175

178 176

179 177

180 178

181 179

182 180

183 181

184 182

185 183

186 184

187 185

188 186

189 187

190 188

191 225

192 226

193 227

194 228

195 229

196 230

197 231

198 232

199 233

200 234

201 235

202 236

203 237

204 238

205 239

206 240

207 241

208 242

209 243

210 244

211 245

212 246

213 247

214 248

215 249

216 250

217 251

218 252

219 253

220 254

221 255

222 256

223 257

224 258

225 259

226 260

227 261

228 262

229 263

230 264

ARIEL I. AHRAM

polity

Copyright © Ariel I. Ahram 2020

The right of Ariel I. Ahram to be identified as Author of this Work has been asserted in accordance with the UK Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988.