David Espindola - The Exponential Era

1 Cover

2 Title Page

3 Copyright Page

4 ABOUT THE AUTHORS

5 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

6 FOREWORD

7 Introduction The Threat of Being Amazoned and Uberized Elephants Dancing to a Faster Tempo Where Is My Crystal Ball? Trillion‐Dollar Platforms Changing Wheels While the Car Is Running Dealing with Chaos Uncertainty Must Be Managed The Premise Behind SPX How This Book Is Organized

8 SECTION ONE CHAPTER 1: The New Context for Our Future The Future Is Not Your Brain's Priority Exponentials Make Fools of Humans The Phases of Exponential Progression The Exponential Explosion Moore's Law: The Observation that Changed the World CHAPTER 2: Exponential Platforms: Convergences and Megatrends Megatrends Exponential Platforms CHAPTER 3: Animals of the Exponential Kingdom Flash Boiled Frogs Disruptive Unicorns Fast and Furious Gazelles Dancing Elephants Dominating Gorillas

9 SECTION TWO CHAPTER 4: Introducing SPX: Strategic Planning for the Exponential Era Convergence Research and Strategic Planning The Manifesto that Changed How Software Is Built Iterative Experiments in a Feedback Loop Thinking Like a Designer Getting Inside the Opponent's Head with OODA A New Approach to Strategic Planning Traditional Strategic Planning versus SPX CHAPTER 5: Detecting Early Signals If It Is Obvious to Everyone, It Has No Value Research and Observation Removing Barriers to Information Flow Access Is the Name of the Game Dealing with Uncertainty Conducting Research Predictive Analytics Timing Analysis CHAPTER 6: Learning from Experiments Divergence and Convergence Starting with Divergence Moving into Convergence Short Experiments Risks and Opportunities Identification Embracing Chaos and Bad News CHAPTER 7: Capabilities – The Essential Fuel to Ride the Exponential Curve Determine Capabilities Develop Risk–Opportunity–Capability Map Develop Priority List CHAPTER 8: Feedback‐Based Strategic Decisions Determine Scale and Scope Explore Highest Priorities Gather Data and Feedback Scale or Terminate Initiatives CHAPTER 9: Leading a Culture of Change Exploration versus Exploitation – the Innovator's Dilemma Amplifying Flow Through the Organization Mobilizing the Organization Through an Inflection Point Knowing When to Quit Executive Engagement Culture and Behaviors

10 SECTION THREE CHAPTER 10: The Exponential Human – Social and Ethical Challenges in a Chaotic World The Workless Society Education Reinvented Global Synchronous Communications New Ethics for a New Era For My Children

11 A DISCUSSION ABOUT THE USE OF THE TERM EXPONENTIAL

12 NOTES AND REFERENCES

13 INDEX

14 End User License Agreement

1 Chapter 0 Table I.1 Sample list of products shut down by Google.

2 Chapter 2Table 2.1 Convergence of exponential platforms shaping megatrends

3 Chapter 4Table 4.1 Traditional strategic planning versus SPX.

1 Chapter 0 Figure I.1 Inflection point. Figure I.2 Series of consecutive S curves.

2 Chapter 1 Figure 1.1 A closer look at the elbow of the exponential curve Figure 1.2 Cost per human genome Figure 1.3 Moore's law: transistors per microprocessor

3 Chapter 4Figure 4.1 SPX: Strategic planning for the Exponential Era.

4 Chapter 5Figure 5.1 Patent filing activity in the United States for 3D printing per t...Figure 5.2 First SPX loop: identify and monitor horizons.Figure 5.3 Timing analysis of converging technologies.

5 Chapter 6Figure 6.1 Second SPX loop: Generate Insights.

6 Chapter 7Figure 7.1 Third SPX loop: formulate a rough plan.Figure 7.2 Risk–opportunity–capability (ROC) map.

7 Chapter 8Figure 8.1 Fourth SPX loop: implement; scale, or terminate initiatives.

1 Cover Page

2 The Exponential Era

3 The Exponential Era

4 The Exponential Era

5 Copyright

6 Dedication

7 ABOUT THE AUTHORS

8 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

9 FOREWORD

10 Table of Contents

11 Begin Reading

12 A DISCUSSION ABOUT THE USE OF THE TERM EXPONENTIAL

13 NOTES AND REFERENCES

14 Index

15 WILEY END USER LICENSE AGREEMENT

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Praises for The Exponential Era

“ The Exponential Era turns strategic planning from a stagnant limited application exercise to an active thoughtful process that can yield benefits for all companies and executives. Every company leader can find a gem in The Exponential Era to apply to their business big or small.”

Michael Splinter, Chairman of the Board, NASDAQ and Retired Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Applied Materials

“I count this among the very best business books I have read. The authors have managed to synthesize a vast array of thinking and methodologies and deployed them in a practical and easily understood planning process (SPX) that addresses today’s exponential pace of change … and they have thrown in a bonus chapter on disruptions we should all be prepared for in the future.

Strategic Planning for the Exponential Era (SPX) holds great promise to address the extreme challenge of identifying future opportunities and ensuring that all ingredients are in place to launch the products and services that customers will love at just the right future moment.

Highly recommended for today’s business leaders. Espindola and Wright have delivered an extremely valuable guide to the future of business planning … and that future is now!”