Salvador Macip - Modern Epidemics

52 49

53 50

54 51

55 52

56 53

57 54

58 55

59 56

60 57

61 58

62 59

63 60

64 61

65 62

66 63

67 64

68 65

69 66

70 67

71 68

72 69

73 70

74 71

75 72

76 73

77 74

78 75

79 76

80 77

81 78

82 79

83 80

84 81

85 82

86 83

87 84

88 85

89 86

90 87

91 88

92 89

93 90

94 91

95 92

96 93

97 94

98 95

99 96

100 97

101 98

102 99

103 100

104 101

105 102

106 103

107 104

108 105

109 106

110 107

111 108

112 109

113 110

114 111

115 112

116 113

117 114

118 115

119 116

120 117

121 118

122 119

123 120

124 121

125 122

126 123

127 124

128 125

129 126

130 127

131 128

132 129

133 130

134 131

135 132

136 133

137 134

138 135

139 136

140 137

141 138

142 139

143 140

144 141

145 142

146 143

147 144

148 145

149 146

150 147

151 148

152 149

153 150

154 151

155 152

156 153

157 154

158 155

159 156

160 157

161 158

162 159

163 160

164 161

165 162

166 163

167 164

168 165

169 166

170 167

171 169

172 171

173 172

174 173

175 174

176 175

177 176

178 177

179 178

180 179

181 180

182 181

183 182

184 183

185 184

186 185

187 186

188 187

189 188

190 189

191 190

192 191

193 192

194 193

195 194

196 195

197 196

198 197

199 198

200 199

201 200

202 201

203 202

204 203

205 204

206 205

207 206

208 207

209 208

210 209

211 210

212 211

213 212

214 213

215 214

216 215

217 216

218 217

219 218

220 219

221 220

222 221

223 222

224 223

225 224

226 225

227 226

228 227

229 228

230 229

231 230

232 231

233 232

234 233

235 234

236 235

237 236

238 237

239 238

240 239

241 240

242 241

243 242

244 243

245 244

246 245

247 246

248 247

249 248

250 249

251 250

252 251

253 252

254 253

255 254

256 255

257 256

258 257

259 258

260 259

261 260

262 261

263 262

264 263

265 264

266 265

267 266

268 267

269 268

270 269

271 270

272 271

273 272

274 273

275 274

276 275

277 276

278 277

279 278

280 279

281 280

282 281

283 282

284 283

285 284

286 285

287 286

288 287

289 288

290 289

291 290

292 291

293 292

294 293

295 294

Salvador Macip

Translated from Catalan by Julie Wark

polity

© Salvador Macip Maresma, 2020

Revised, updated and expanded text by Salvador Macip from his work Les grans epidèmies modernes originally published in Catalan by La Campana. Translation rights arranged by Asterisc Agents. All rights reserved.

This English edition © 2021 by Polity Press

This book has been supported by the Institut Ramon Llull

Polity Press

65 Bridge Street

Cambridge CB2 1UR, UK

Polity Press

101 Station Landing

Suite 300

Medford, MA 02155, USA

All rights reserved. Except for the quotation of short passages for the purpose of criticism and review, no part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of the publisher.

ISBN-13: 978-1-5095-4658-9

A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library.

The publisher has used its best endeavours to ensure that the URLs for external websites referred to in this book are correct and active at the time of going to press. However, the publisher has no responsibility for the websites and can make no guarantee that a site will remain live or that the content is or will remain appropriate.

Every effort has been made to trace all copyright holders, but if any have been overlooked the publisher will be pleased to include any necessary credits in any subsequent reprint or edition.

For further information on Polity, visit our website: politybooks.com

For my mother:

Thank you for all these years of unconditional support

The smallest unit of life – a single bacterial cell – is a monument of pattern and process unrivalled in the universe as we know it.

Lynn Margulis and Dorion Sagan, Microcosmos: Four Billion Years of Microbial Evolution (University of California Press, 1986)

But there is something terrifying about the fact that nothing can stop the implacable evolution of these viruses as they test, through mindless mutation, ever more strategies to facilitate their survival, a survival that just may represent disease and death for us humans.

C. J. Peters and Mark Olshaker, Virus Hunter: Thirty Years of Battling Hot Viruses around the World (Anchor Books, 1997)

My thanks to colleagues who guided my first steps in the fascinating world of studying microorganisms: Dr Luca Gusella, Dr Arantxa Horga, Dr Adolfo García-Sastre and Dr Luis Martínez-Sobrido. And more thanks for the deliberations and conversations that have ended up appearing in this book. A thousand thanks to Dr Jordi Gómez i Prat, Dr Marta Giralt, Dr Joan Fontdevila and Dr Ana Fernández Sesma for their help, their selfless supervision, and for letting me interview them. Another thousand to C. J. Peters, L. Margulis, D. Sagan, D. H. Crawford, D. Grady, G. Kolata and M. Siegel for their books on the subject, which have been my references.

My gratitude to Gonzalo Pontón for his contribution in giving shape to this project, to Pau Centellas and Carlota Torrents for their part in bringing into being what finally ended up as a book, to Emili Rosales and Ramón Perelló for enabling the project grow, to Isabel Martí and Josep Maria Espinàs for their guidance in polishing it, and to John Thompson and Elise Heslinga for helping me turn it into a much better book.

As always, my thanks to Yolanda, Pol, Antoni-Jordi, Josefina and Ana for being at my side, for helping me in difficult moments, and for being unsparing with their criticism.

In spring 2009, there was an outbreak in Mexico of an influenza pandemic that spread unstoppably around the world in just a few weeks. Many people were taken by surprise as they hadn’t imagined that, with all the advances in medicine today, we could still feel so helpless when faced with such a common virus. Yet, scientists had been predicting it for quite some time. When the first edition of this book was published, over a decade ago, by which time that pandemic had started to abate, I was interviewed by some newspapers and repeated the same thing several times: it was indisputable that there would be another pandemic in a few years’ time, and we had better prepare in case the virus that would be circulating then turned out to be more aggressive than A(H1N1), the so-called ‘swine flu’ virus, which was creating so many problems. Such long-term prophecies are easy to make because, if you are wrong, no one remembers, so you don’t get taken to task about it afterwards. But, in this case, it wasn’t prediction but certainty. All the experts I had spoken to or read while writing this book agreed that it was inevitable. Everyone who had sufficiently studied the matter came to the same conclusion: it wasn’t a matter of waiting to see if it would happen but when it would happen.