Simulation and Wargaming

1 Cover

2 Title Page Simulation and Wargaming Edited by Charles Turnitsa Regent University Virginia Beach, USA Curtis Blais Naval Postgraduate School MOVES Institute Monterey, USA Andreas Tolk The MITRE Corporation Charlottesville, USA

3 Copyright Page

4 Dedication

5 Foreword

6 Preface

7 List of Contributors

8 Author Biography

9 Prologue to Wargaming and Simulation – An Introduction to the Viewpoints and Challenges Introduction A Simulationist’s Perspective A Wargamer’s Perspective Conclusion

10 Part I: Introduction 1 An Introduction to Wargaming and Modeling and Simulation Introduction Terminology An Abbreviated History of Wargames and Simulations Wargames and Computer‐Based Combat Simulations: From the Cold War to Today Wargames Today Simulations Today Campaign Analysis Conclusion

11 Part II: Historical Context 2 A School for War – A Brief History of the Prussian Kriegsspiel Introduction Kriegsspiel Prehistory A School for War – the Prussian Kriegsspiel The Prussian Kriegsspiel 1824/28 – 1862 The Golden Age – 1862 to c. 1875 The Changing Kriegsspiel – c. 1875 to 1914 Kriegsspiel Beyond Borders – 1871 to 1914 Conclusion Works Cited 3 Using Combat Models for Wargaming The Nature of Combat Models Europe’s Plan to Simulate the Entire Planet China Exclusive: China’s “Magic Cube” Computer Unlocks the Future A Model to Predict War Afghanistan Stability/COIN Dynamics – Security 18 The Nature of Wargames The Players – Who Might Be Involved? The CRT – How Do We Adjudicate Political, Economic, Information and Other Non‐Kinetic Actions? How DO WE ADJUDICATE KINETIC INTERACTIONS (Which, in This Case, We Hope Do Not Occur!)? Organizational Behaviors Issue in Wargames (and Combat Models) yyyyn

12 Part III: Wargaming and Operations Research 4 An Analysis‐Centric View of Wargaming, Modeling, Simulation, and Analysis Background and Structure Relationships, Definitions, and Distinctions A Model‐Game‐Model Paradigm Case Study: Deterrence and Stability on the Korean Peninsula Implications for Simulation References 5 Wargaming, Automation, and Military Experimentation to Quantitatively and Qualitatively Inform Decision‐Making Introduction Wargaming Automation Challenges in M&S Perspective Stage‐Wise Experimentation in CAW Computer‐Assisted Wargaming Classification Conclusion References 6 Simulation and Artificial Intelligence Methods for Wargames Introduction Modeling of Complex Activities Model of Operation A Collection of Values of the Function h(g) Deterrence Phase COA Evaluation Summary References 7 Combining Wargaming and Simulation Analysis Introduction Current Efforts Underway Methodology Frameworks or Schemas to Support Portfolios Comparability Emergence Triangulation Mathematical Models Experimentation Conclusion References 8 The Use of M&S and Wargaming to Address Wicked Problems Why Are We Doing This? Framing the Problem M&S Support to Wargames Pathologies and How to Avoid Them Combining Wargaming and M&S

13 Part IV: Wargaming and Concept Developing and Testing 9 Simulation Support to Wargaming for Tactical Operations Planning Introduction Operational Planning and Wargaming What are the Benefits of Simulation Support to COA Wargaming? Principles of Technology Support to Wargaming for Operations Planning Enabling Technologies SWAP Conclusion and Way Forward References 10 Simulation‐Based Cyber Wargaming Motivation and Overview Introduction Cyber Simulation Mission Analysis Tool Wargames Commercial Wargames Future Work Summary References 11 Using Computer‐Generated Virtual Realities, Operations Research, and Board Games for Conflict Simulations Introduction Public Software (C:MA/NO) User‐Tailored Software (VBS3) Artificial Intelligence for Solving Tactical Planning Problems Wargaming Support Conclusion References

14 Part V: Emerging Technologies 12 Virtual Worlds and the Cycle of Research The Cycle of Research as a Communications Framework Bridging the Wargaming – Simulation Gap Virtual World Beginnings Elgin Marbles – An Analytic Game Analytical vs. Narrative Games Virtual Worlds as a Virtual Reality Operational Wargames Distributed LVC Wargames The Future 13 Visualization Support to Strategic Decision‐Making Introduction Interactive Visualizations Methodology Considerations Model Construction Example: The MITRE Simulation, Experimentation and Analytics Lab (SEAL) Enterprise Integration Community of Practice Summary References 14 Using an Ontology to Design a Wargame/Simulation System Motivation and Overview Introduction A Modern Conflict Ontology Creating a Simulation/Wargame from the Ontology Conclusion References 15 Agent‐Driven End Game Analysis for Air Defense Motivation and Overview Introduction Related Studies Agent‐Directed Simulation and AdSiF Aims and Performance Measurement Types of End Game Analysis Online Analysis and Scenario Replication Design An Air Defense Scenario: Scenario View Discussions References

15 Epilogue

16 Index

17 End User License Agreement

1 Chapter 4Table 1 Some different purposes for wargaming and related exercises.Table 2 Relative attributes of models and games.Table 3 Questions to ask and not ask of human gaming.Table 4 Modern complications in an escalation ladder concept.Table 5 Simplified escalation ladders for North Korea (Red) and for South K...Table 6 Generic top‐level structure of cognitive decision model.Table 7 Assessment of game experiment.Table 8 Important factors in model or game.

2 Chapter 5Table 1 Commonalities and differences of constructive simulation in the exp...Table 2 Wargaming classification terms and their hierarchy.

3 Chapter 6 Table 1Parameters of decisive points of state A in deterrence phase. Table 2Parameters of decisive points of state B in deterrence phase. Table 3Parameters of decisive points of state C in deterrence phase. Table 4Parameters of decisive points of state D in deterrence phase. Table 5The main probabilistic characteristics of the COA‐ according to the MCA....

4 Chapter 7Table 1 SWOT framework – possible schema.Table 2 Different techniques to support decision‐making.

5 Chapter 10Table 10.1 Generic cyber effects in CANS/AFSIM.

6 Chapter 15Table 15.1 The predicates.Table 15.2 Air defense effectiveness measure inputs.Table 15.3 The scenario assets.Table 15.4 Fly durations. Table 15.5Target engagement times.Table 15.6 Target elimination distances.Table 15.7 Target detection times and detection numbers.

1 Chapter 4Figure 1 A portfolio of methods and tools (all can be seen as M&S).Figure 2 An idealized system view of theory, modeling, and experimentation....Figure 3 Model‐test‐model paradigm for using human gaming.Figure 4 A precedent: the RAND strategy assessment system.Figure 5 A highly simplified pol‐mil model.Figure 6 Multilevel factor tree assessment of options.Figure 7 Features of even a “Simple” cognitive model considering pre‐emption...Figure 8 Modeling the military value of a pre‐emptive option.Figure 9 Postulated damage data from red attacks. Note: the notional values ...

2 Chapter 5Figure 1 Illustrating stage‐wise experimentation through a decision tree (He...Figure 2 Event development in an exercise consists of constant communication...Figure 3 A structure for transforming a CAE into an ACAW for experimentation...Figure 4 Incorporating design of experiments in JTLS (Hernandez et al. 2018)...Figure 5 Attributes of military experiment related to CAW.

3 Chapter 6Figure 1 Simple excerpt from a campaign planning concept (course of action –...Figure 2 MCA package class layers.Figure 3 Visualization Layer Classes.Figure 4 Graphical model of an analyzed conflict situation.Figure 5 The illustration of functions f, g (positive or negative influences...Figure 6 The sample analysis of conflict escalation.