C. Fred Bergsten - The United States vs. China

1 Cover

2 Title Page THE UNITED STATES VS. CHINA The Quest for Global Economic Leadership C. Fred Bergsten polity

3 Copyright Copyright © C. Fred Bergsten 2022 The right of C. Fred Bergsten to be identified as Author of this Work has been asserted in accordance with the UK Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988. First published in 2022 by Polity Press Polity Press 65 Bridge Street Cambridge CB2 1UR, UK Polity Press 101 Station Landing Suite 300 Medford, MA 02155, USA All rights reserved. Except for the quotation of short passages for the purpose of criticism and review, no part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior permission of the publisher. ISBN-13: 978-1-5095-4736-4 A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library. Library of Congress Control Number: 2021944914 The publisher has used its best endeavors to ensure that the URLs for external websites referred to in this book are correct and active at the time of going to press. However, the publisher has no responsibility for the websites and can make no guarantee that a site will remain live or that the content is or will remain appropriate. Every effort has been made to trace all copyright holders, but if any have been overlooked the publisher will be pleased to include any necessary credits in any subsequent reprint or edition. For further information on Polity, visit our website: politybooks.com

4 Preface Notes

5 Abbreviations

6 Part I The Setting 1 A New Global Economic Order? The Rise of China The United States as Incumbent Power The Systemic Alternatives The Current System The China Challenge The New Systemic Shocks Recent Systemic Competition Recent Systemic Cooperation The Policy Options The Domestic Front Notes 2 Why Global Economic Leadership Matters Global Public Goods Types of Global Economic Leadership The Benefits and Costs of Global Economic Leadership The Rise and Fall of American Global Economic Leadership The Major Leadership Failures The Trump Abdication China’s Global Economic Leadership Record Notes

7 Part II The Superpowers 3 China’s Leadership Capabilities Economic Size Economic Quality Trade Foreign Direct Investment Foreign Exchange Reserves Development Finance Technology Human Capital Growth Projections China’s Achilles Heels Authoritarian Politics Perceptions and Realities Conclusion Notes 4 China’s Aspirations The Complexity of Chinese Views Inflection Points: The Global Financial Crisis and the Coronavirus Pandemic Revisionist or Revolutionary? The Best of Both Worlds The Costs of Global Economic Leadership Conclusion Notes 5 America’s Leadership Capabilities The US Economy Decoupling Economic and Security Issues US Vulnerabilities A Long-Term Erosion? Conclusion Notes 6 America’s Will to Lead The Costs of Leadership The Domestic Politics of Global Economic Leadership Who is the United States? Is US Leadership Still Necessary? Conclusion Notes

8 Part III The Systemic Alternatives 7 The Leadership Vacuum: A G-0 World? A Stable or Unstable G-0? What for the Future? Potential G-0 Leaders Toward a Stable G-0 Conclusion Notes 8 G-1: Chinese Economic Pre-Eminence The Path to a “G-1” The Key Principles of the System The Chinese Alternatives The Role of the State Law and Politics Conclusion Notes 9 Effective Co-Leadership: A US–China G-2 A G-2 Today? The Case for a G-2 The Hurdles to a G-2 An Operational G-2 Potential Institutional Initiatives Conclusion 10 Toward Conditional Competitive Cooperation A New International Economic Order? Restoring the Alliances Trade Reform International Monetary Reform An International Institutional Integration Initiative A Proposed US Strategy Domestic Reform Conclusion Notes

9 References

10 Index

11 End User License Agreement

1 Chapter 1 Figure 1.1US policy options toward China

2 Chapter 3 Figure 3.1How much does China exceed US GDP at PPP exchange rates? Figure 3.2When does China exceed US GDP at market exchange rates? Figure 3.3How much does China exceed US GDP at market exchange rates? Figure 3.4Shares of world growth Figure 3.5The power index: China and the hegemonic coalition Figure 3.6Global trade projections Figure 3.7Stock of foreign direct investment: 2018

3 Chapter 5 Figure 5.1Power index @ 2019 Figure 5.2GDP @ 2019

1 Chapter 1 Table 1.1IMF quotas: Projections to 2050 on current IMF formula

2 Chapter 2 Table 2.1The United States and the hegemonic coalition: 2018

3 Chapter 3 Table 3.1GDP at purchasing power parity: 2019 Table 3.2GDP at market exchange rates: 2019 Table 3.3Growth rates of total factor productivity Table 3.4Per capita GDP at purchasing power parity: 2019 Table 3.5Per capita GDP at market exchange rates: 2019 Table 3.6The power index (GDP × GDP per capita) Table 3.7National wealth per World Bank Table 3.8National wealth per United Nations Table 3.9The power index: China and the hegemonic coalition Table 3.10The share of trade in GDP Table 3.11World trade (exports plus imports): 2019 Table 3.12Trade growth: 1980–2018 Table 3.13Growth of foreign direct investment Table 3.14Foreign exchange reserves: end of 2019 Table 3.15R&D expenditures Table 3.16World Bank Human Capital Project: 2020 Table 3.17Estimates of long-term China growth

4 Chapter 5 Table 5.1Patent applications

1 Chapter 1 Box 1.1(When) Will the IMF and World Bank move to China?

2 Chapter 2 Box 2.1The Nixon shocks Box 2.2President Obama and TPP

1 Cover

2 Table of Contents

3 Title Page

4 Copyright

5 Preface

6 Abbreviations

7 Begin Reading

8 References

9 Index

10 End User License Agreement

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