Håkan Jankensgård - The Black Swan Problem

1 Cover

2 Title Page

3 Copyright

4 Dedication

5 Prologue Note

6 Acknowledgements

7 CHAPTER ONE: The Swans Revisited THE NATURE OF RANDOMNESS THE MOVING TAIL THE ROLE OF EXPECTATIONS WHAT MAKES US SUCKERS? THE RELATIVITY OF BLACK SWANS MEET THE PREPPERS NOTES

8 CHAPTER TWO: Corporate Swans THE BOARD'S PERSPECTIVE SWANS ATTACK STRATEGY SWANS THE SWAN WITHIN THE GROWTH FETISH THE FEAR FACTOR THE CHIEF EXECUTIVE SWAN SWANS ON THE RISE NOTES

9 CHAPTER THREE: The Black Swan Problem TAIL RISK AND FIRM VALUE UNDERSTANDING WIPEOUTS STRATEGY DISRUPTION ALL YOU ZOMBIES THE AFFORDABILITY ISSUE THE CONUNDRUM NOTES

10 CHAPTER FOUR: Greeting the Swan RANDOMNESS REDUX THE ROADS NOT TAKEN FUNCTIONAL STUPIDITY THE SWANMAKERS ON TOOLS AND MODELS A SWAN RADAR FOR THE BOARD NOTES

11 CHAPTER FIVE: Taming the Swan DRAWING THE LINE DISTANCE TO WIPEOUT RISK CAPITAL STRESS TESTING RESILIENCE VS ENDURANCE QUANTITATIVE MODELS LIQUIDITY IS KING NOTES

12 CHAPTER SIX: Catching the Swan ANTIFRAGILITY RESTORING THE TRUE PATH BUYING ON THE CHEAP OPPORTUNITY CAPITAL FLIGHT TO SAFETY RISK AS STRATEGY NOTES

13 CHAPTER SEVEN: Riding the Swan RISK SHIFTING A BEAUTIFUL STRATEGY FUEL FOR GROWTH NARCISSISM REDEEMED A TAIL OF TWO COMPANIES END OF THE RIDE SWANS TO THE RESCUE? NOTES

14 Epilogue Note

15 Index

16 End User License Agreement

1 Chapter 1 TABLE 1.1 The prepper's list

2 Chapter 4TABLE 4.1 Value chain vulnerability

3 Chapter 7TABLE 7.1 Leverage and growth

1 Chapter 2FIGURE 2.1 Corporate Swan rates 1955–2020

2 Chapter 3FIGURE 3.1 Collateral damageFIGURE 3.2 The risk management paradox

3 Chapter 4FIGURE 4.1 The Swan radar

4 Chapter 5FIGURE 5.1 Risk CapacityFIGURE 5.2 Resilience‐endurance matrixFIGURE 5.3 Shift in risk profile (risk measure over time)

5 Chapter 6FIGURE 6.1 Strategic cash

6 Chapter 7FIGURE 7.1 Riding the Swans

1 Cover

2 Table of Contents

3 Title Page

4 Copyright

5 Dedication

6 Prologue

7 Acknowledgements

8 Begin Reading

9 Epilogue

10 Index

11 End User License Agreement

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HÅKAN JANKENSGÅRD

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