Нейт Сильвер - Сигнал и шум. Почему одни прогнозы сбываются, а другие – нет

Возможно, Байес также был арианцем, последователем учения раннехристианского проповедника Ария, который считал Иисуса Христа небесным сыном Бога, а не одним из выражений Бога (как считает в наши дни большинство христиан).

Thomas Bayes, «Divine Benevolence: Or an Attempt to Prove That the Principal End of the Divine Providence and Government Is the Happiness of His Creatures». http://archive.org/details/DivineBenevolenceOrAnAttemptToProveThatThe.

Thomas Bayes, «Divine Benevolence: Or an Attempt to Prove That the Principal End of the Divine Providence and Government Is the Happiness of His Creatures». http://archive.org/details/DivineBenevolenceOrAnAttemptToProveThatThe.

Thomas Bayes, «Divine Benevolence: Or an Attempt to Prove That the Principal End of the Divine Providence and Government Is the Happiness of His Creatures». http://archive.org/details/DivineBenevolenceOrAnAttemptToProveThatThe.

The Late Rev. Mr. Bayes, Communicated by Mr. Price, in a Letter to John Canton, M. A. and F. R. S., «An Essay Towards Solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances», Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London , 53, pp. 370–418; 1763. http://www.stat.ucla.edu/history/essay.pdf.

Donald A. Gillies, «Was Bayes a Bayesian?», Historia Mathematica , 14, no. 4, pp. 325–346, November 1987. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/0315086087900656.

David Hume, «Cause and Effect” in An Enquiry Concerning Human Understanding (1772) (Hackett Publishing Company, 1993). http://www.marxists.org/reference/subject/philosophy/works/en/hume.htm.

Некоторые христиане считают, что байесовская вероятность более совместима с их мировоззрением. Согласно теореме Байеса, если вы присвоите 100 %-ную априорную вероятность гипотезе о существовании христианского бога, то никакие доказательства в мире не заставят вас отступить от своих позиций. Вполне возможно, что Байес это понимал. В своем вступлении к эссе Байеса Ричард Прайс упоминал, что, по его мнению, теорема Байеса помогает подтвердить «существование Божества». Дополнительную информацию по этой теме можно найти: Steve Bishop, «Christian Mathematicians – Bayes, God & Math: Thinking Christianly About Mathematics», Education, March 22, 2012 г. http://godandmath.com/2012/03/22/christian-mathematicians-bayes/.

«Fundamental Atheism», Free Atheist Church. https://sites.google.com/site/freeatheistchurch/fundamental-atheism.

Sharon Bertsch McGrayne, The Theory That Would Not Die: How Bayes’ Rule Cracked the Enigma Code, Hunted Down Russian Submarines, and Emerged Triumphant from Two Centuries of Controversy (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, Kindle edition), 427–436.

E. O. Lovett, «The Great Inequality of Jupiter and Saturn», Astronomical Journal , 15, 351 (1895), pp. 113–127.

McGrayne, The Theory That Would Not Die , Kindle location 19.

Pierre-Simon Laplace, «A Philosophical Essay on Probabilities» (1902), pp. 6–8.

Bret Schulte, «How Common Are Cheating Spouses?» U. S. News & World Report , March 27, 2008. http://www.usnews.com/news/national/articles/2008/03/27/how-common-are-cheating-spouses.

«Breast Cancer Risk by Age», Breast Cancer Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, last updated August 13, 2010. http://www.cdc.gov/cancer/breast/statistics/age.htm.

«Understanding Breast Exam Results – False Negative – False Positive Results», RealAge.com. http://www.realage.com/womens-health/breast-exam-results.

S. Eva Singletary, Geoffrey L. Robb, and Gabriel N. Hortobagyi, «Advanced Therapy of Breast Disease», B. C. Decker, May 30, 2004.

Gina Kolata, «Panel Urges Mammograms at 50, Not 40», New York Times , November 16, 2009. http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/17/health/17cancer.html.

Dan M. Kahan, et al., «The Polarizing Impact of Science Literacy and Numeracy on Perceived Climate Change Risks», Nature Climate Change , May 27, 2012. See Supplementary Information: http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/extref/nclimate1547-s1.pdf.

Если отсчитать 25 тыс. дней до 11 сентября 2001 г., мы окажемся примерно в 1942 г.

John P. A. Ioannidis, «Why Most Published Research Findings Are False», PLOS Medicine , 2, e124, August 2005. http://www.plosmedicine.org/article/info:%20doi/10.1371/journal.pmed%20.0020124.

Brian Owens, «Reliability of ‘New Drug Target’ Claims Called into Question», NewsBlog, Nature , September 5, 2011. http://blogs.nature.com/news/2011/09/reliability_of_new_drug_target.html.

McGrayne, The Theory That Would Not Die , Kindle location 46.

Paul D. Stolley, «When Genius Errs: R. A. Fisher and the Lung Cancer Controversy», American Journal of Epidemiology , 133, 5, 1991. http://www.epidemiology.ch/history/PDF%20bg/Stolley%20PD%201991%20when%20genius%20errs%20-%20RA%20fisher%20and%20the%20lung%20cancer.pdf.

Alan Agresti and David B. Hitchcock, «Bayesian Inference for Categorical Data Analysis», Statistical Methods & Applications , 14 (2005), pp. 297–330. http://www.stat.ufl.edu/~aa/articles/agresti_hitchcock_2005.pdf.

John Aldrich, «R. A. Fisher on Bayes and Bayes’ Theorem», Bayesian Analysis , 3, no. 1 (2008), pp. 161–170. http://ba.stat.cmu.edu/journal/2008/vol03/issue01/aldrich.pdf.

McGrayne, The Theory That Would Not Die , Kindle location 48.

Tore Schweder, «Fisherian or Bayesian Methods of Integrating Diverse Statistical Information?» Fisheries Research , 37, 1–3 (August 1998), pp. 61–75. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165783698001271.

Данные о первичных выборах 2008 г. демократической партии, RealClearPolitics.com. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nh/new_hampshire_democratic_primary-194.html.

Nate Silver, «Rasmussen Polls Were Biased and Inaccurate; Quinnipiac, SurveyUSA Performed Strongly», FiveThirtyEight , New York Times, November 4, 2010. http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/11/04/rasmussen-polls-were-biased-and-inaccurate-quinnipiac-surveyusa-performed-strongly/.