James Rickards - The Death of Money

GDP of, 93, 96

gold accumulation by, 12, 61, 226–30, 282–84, 296

gold as percentage of reserves of, 279

gold-to-GDP ratio of, 157, 281–82

IMF commitment of, 202

income inequality in, 106

inflation in, 3

infrastructure spending in, 98–101, 107–8

investment in European Union (EU), 126–27

investment/malinvestment in economy of, 95–101, 107–110

iron rice bowl principle in, 93

one-child policy, 95, 102

rebalancing of economy from investment to consumption and, 98, 107–110

shadow finance system in, 101–4

state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in, 97–98, 107

Taiping Rebellion, 91

unrestricted warfare doctrine and, 44–45

U.S.-Iran financial war and, 56, 57

Warlord Period, 91

Warring States period, 90

China Daily , 52

China Investment Corporation (CIC), 51

China National Petroleum Corporation, 97

China Petrochemical Corporation (SINOPEC), 97

China Railway Corporation, 255

China State Shipbuilding Corporation, 97

China Telecom, 97

Churchill, Winston, 116, 223

Citibank, 28, 30–31, 262

Citigroup, 196

civilizational collapses, 5

Clinton, Bill, 210

cluster paradigm, 192–93, 194, 198

CNN, 36, 37

codetermination, 123–24

Cohen, David, 54

Coinage Act of 1792, 217

Cold War, 46, 231

collapse

civilizational, 5

financial, 265–67

of international monetary system, 5

market, 11–12

warning signs of, 295–98

collateral swaps, 188

College of Europe, 116

commodities, 217

Communist Dynasty, 90, 91–92

complexity theory, 6, 269–70

financial collapse and, 265–67

market collapse and, 11–12

phase transitions in, 172, 265, 289–90

computational complexity theory, 71

confidence, in U.S. dollar, 253–56, 291

confirmation bias, 26

continuity of government operations, 63

contract theory of money (contractism), 165–67, 169

corporate tax rates, 122

correlations, 4–5

Cosco, 133

Counter-Reformation, 115

credit, in premoney economies, 255

creditism, 168–69

credit risk, 218

criticality, 270

Croatia, 136

Croseus, King, 217

“Crunch Time: Fiscal Crises and the Role of Monetary Policy” (Mishkin), 286–87

Crusades, 115

currency war, 159

cyberattacks, 59–60

cyclical downturns, 197–98

Cyprus, 200, 290

Dam, Kenneth W., 209–10

Da Silva, Tekoa, 236

Davoudi, Parviz, 151

“Day After, The” (Ambinder), 63

debasement, of money, 172

debt, 171–80, 290–91

Federal Reserve monetary policy’s relation to, 176–77, 180–89

Federal Reserve Notes as, 167

monetization of, 287–88

sustainable, 171–72, 176–80

tests for acceptable government spending, 173–76

of United States, 171–73

Debt-Deflation Theory of Great Depressions, The (Fisher), 246–47

debt-to-GDP ratio, 159–60, 173

deflation, impact of, 9, 258–59

of Japan, 159, 259, 261

of United Kingdom, 159

of United States, 159, 173, 259

defensive aspects of financial war, 46

deficits, 172–73, 176–80

deflation, 9–11, 76–83, 243–52, 256–64

banking system, impact on, 9, 259

Bernanke’s response to, 76, 77

Chinese imports and, 76

debt-to-GDP ratio and, 9, 258–59

deleveraging after housing market collapse and, 76–77

government debt repayment and, 9, 258

Greenspan’s response to, 76

versus inflation, in depression of 2007 to present, 243–52, 260, 290–91

in Japan, 160–61, 260–62, 264

post-2000 deflationary bias, 76

SDR issuance to prevent, 213–14

tax collection and, 9, 259–60

unemployment and, 77

De Gasperi, Alcide, 116

degree distribution, 265–66

de Léry, Jean, 115

deleveraging, 76–77, 246

DeMint, Jim, 205

Democrats, 175–76, 179, 180, 294

Deng Xiaoping, 93, 97

depressions

defined, 244

deflation in, 246–47

Great Depression, 84, 85, 125–26, 155, 221–22, 223–24, 234, 244, 245

Long Depression, in Japan, 160

of 1920, 246–47

regime uncertainty and, 125–26

2007 to present, 3, 76, 87, 126, 197, 243–52, 260, 290–91

derivatives, 80–81

gold as not constituting, 217–18

mortgage-related, 290

risk posed by, 11–12

size of positions in, 11

Deutsche Bank, 32–33

Deutsche Bundesbank, 232

devaluations, 158, 200

of dollar, U.S., 1, 10–11, 235

Gold Bloc devaluations, 222

Great Depression and, 223

digital currencies, 254

dollar, U.S., 161

alternatives to, 254

Beijing Consensus and, 120–21

confidence in, 253–56, 291

contract theory of, 165–67, 169

deflation as threat to, 9–11

demise of, potential paths of, 292–95

devaluation of, 1, 10–11, 235

financial war as threat to, 6–7

geopolitical threats to, 12–13

gold convertibility abandoned, in 1971, 1, 2, 5, 209, 220, 235, 285

inflation as threat to, 7–9

King Dollar (sound-dollar) policy, 118, 176–77, 210, 211

loss of confidence in, in 1970s, 1–2, 5

market collapse as threat to, 11–12

MARKINT as means of detecting attacks on, 40

pegging to, effect of, 155

SDRs as potential reserve currency replacement for, 211–14, 292–93

threats to, 5–13

Volcker’s efforts to save, 2

Washington Consensus and, 118–20

dollar index

in 1978, 1, 253–54

in 1995, 2, 253–54

in 2011, 2–3, 253–54

in 2013, 253–54

SDR issuance and weakness in, 210–11

Dr. Strangelove (film), 63

Draghi, Mario, 172, 211, 236

Dubai, 55, 58, 128, 153

Dubai World collapse, 128, 153

Duncan, Richard, 168

earmarked accounts, in gold, 276

easy-money policy of Federal Reserve, 3–4, 157–59, 260, 262, 264

exporting of inflation through exchange rate mechanism and, 75, 155

unintended consequences of, 78–83

weak response to, in liquidity trap, 247

wealth effect and, 72, 73

Economic Advisory Recovery Board, 252–53

Economist, The, 43–44, 134

Egypt, 156

Eichengreen, Barry, 207, 242

Einhard, 113

Eisenhower, Dwight, 174–75

electronic barter market, 254–55

El-Erian, Mohamed, 289

enemy hedge fund scenario, 47–51

equilibrium models, 4, 62

Estonia. See BELLs (Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania)

euro, 112, 113, 117–18

Chinese investment in, 126–27

future of, 133–37

skeptics of, analytic failures of, 129–32

sovereign debt crisis of 2010 and, 128–30

U.S. money market fund investment in, 127

Eurobonds, 136–37

Europe, 112–18. See also European Union (EU)

Charlemagne’s Frankenreich, 112, 113–14

post–World War II steps to unification, 116–18

warfare and conquest in, history of, 115–16

European Atomic Energy Community (Euratom), 116–17

European Central Bank (ECB), 117, 172

European Coal and Steel Community (ECSC), 116, 117

European Communities (EC), 117

European Economic Community (EEC), 116–17

European Rate Mechanism (ERM), 153

European Union (EU), 113, 121–37

Berlin Consensus and, 121–27

Chinese investment in, 126–27

demographics of, 134–35

expanding membership of, 136

fiscal and banking reforms, since 2011, 135–36

future of, 132–37

IMF commitment of, 202

precursor organizations and founding of, 116–18

sovereign debt crisis of 2010 and, 128–30