Анджела Стент - Putin's World - Russia Against the West and with the Rest

There already have been several indictments of Americans. General Flynn has pleaded guilty to making false statements to the FBI, and two other Trump associates have pleaded guilty to lying about their contacts with Russians. Paul Manafort—facing multiple counts of conspiracy to launder money and failing to register as a foreign agent—was convicted in one trial and initially pleaded guilty and agreed to cooperate with the Mueller investigation to avoid a second trial. 38Mr. Mueller has assembled a team of top money-laundering experts and appears to be focusing on financial ties between Russians and people around Trump.

The US public remains sharply divided over Russiagate. A majority of Americans (59 percent) think senior members of Donald Trump’s administration definitely or probably had improper contacts with Russia during the presidential campaign, and most believe Mr. Mueller will conduct an impartial investigation. But while 71 percent of Democrats believe the Russia probe is “very important” to the nation, only 19 percent of Republicans believe it is. 39Trump has denied any collusion, has mostly refused to acknowledge Russian interference, and has not ordered his intelligence agencies to take any action to counter Russian cyber and social media activities, which continued in 2018. Indeed, he has disparaged the FBI and other intelligence agencies throughout these investigations.

Putin has repeatedly dismissed the idea of interference, challenging his audience at the 2016 Valdai Discussion Club meeting: “Does anyone seriously imagine that Russia can somehow influence the American people’s choice? America is not some kind of ‘banana republic,’ after all, but is a great power. Do correct me if I am wrong.” 40

What did Trump believe he could accomplish with Putin once he entered the White House? On the campaign trail, he gave a few hints. Russia, he said, was a key ally in fighting a common enemy: terrorism. Russia would help solve the Syrian Civil War. It could be helpful with North Korea. And closer US-Russia relations would draw Russia away from its partnership with China. Similarly, Russia might act as a brake on Iran’s nuclear and regional ambitions. As K. T. McFarland, who served for four months as deputy national security adviser, wrote in a leaked e-mail after Obama imposed sanctions on Russia in December, “Russia is the key that unlocks the door,” adding that the Trump administration should be able to maneuver Russia away from allies such as Iran. 41This idea—that Russia might be a genuine partner in anti-terrorism and in other global issues—was widespread among Trump’s inner circle. But the belief that Russia could be turned away from its deepening partnership with China revealed a profound misunderstanding of the reality of the Sino-Russian relationship. The development of close ties to China was one of Putin’s previous foreign policy successes, which he would hardly jeopardize for closer ties with an unpredictable United States.

The Russians welcomed Trump’s election. People celebrated in Moscow bars, and state-run media were fulsome in their praise. Putin called to congratulate Trump, expressing hope that they should move beyond the “absolutely unsatisfactory state of bilateral relations” and cooperate on “the broadest possible range of issues.” 42A group of wealthy Russians attended the inauguration, and one of them posted a picture on Facebook of him clutching inauguration memorabilia, writing, “I believe that President Donald Trump will open a new page in American History.” It was clear that the delegation of Russian businessmen were hoping Trump’s election would lead to a thaw in US-Russia relations and would open up new business opportunities for them after Trump lifted the sanctions imposed by Obama. 43

During the first four months of his administration, Trump spoke several times with Putin, mainly about Syria, counterterrorism, and North Korea. His first meeting with high-level officials came in May, when he received Foreign Minister Lavrov and Ambassador Kislyak in the Oval Office. He had just fired the head of the FBI, James Comey, whom he considered disloyal because of his pursuit of the Russia investigation. (Mueller then took over the investigation.) Although US media were barred from the meeting, the Russians managed to get their photographer in, so pictures soon emerged of Trump laughing with his Russian guests, with all three men in a jovial mood. Trump said they had had a “very, very good meeting.” It was subsequently revealed that he had disclosed highly classified information to the Russians—emanating from Israel—about terrorists trying to use computers to blow up planes. 44

It was not until July 2017 that the two presidents finally met. During their first encounter at the G-20 meeting in Hamburg, Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump looked relaxed, smiled at each other, and had “positive chemistry,” according to former secretary of state Rex Tillerson. 45The meeting went on much longer than planned, and First Lady Melania Trump was sent in after two and a half hours to remind them that it was time to wrap it up. Trump was effusive in his praise for the Russian leader: “We had some very good talks—we look forward to a lot of very positive things happening for Russia, for the United States, and for everybody concerned. And it’s an honor to be with you.” Putin returned the compliment: “I am delighted to be able to meet you personally, Mr. President.” 46Putin praised his American interlocutor: “Mr. Trump’s television image is very different from the real person; he is a very down to earth and direct person, and he has an absolutely adequate attitude towards the person he is talking with.” 47

During the meeting, the two leaders discussed the conflict in Syria, and when the issue of Russian interference in the 2016 US election was raised, Putin denied that this had occurred. As far as the public was concerned, that was the only Trump-Putin meeting. But it turned out that later that evening, when the dinner was finished, Trump went over to Putin—who had been sitting next to Mrs. Trump—and had a one-hour conversation with him. What was unusual about this was that Trump did not take his interpreter with him, so the only other witness to the meeting was the Russian interpreter, and there is no record of what was said—at least for the US side. 48After the Hamburg meeting, Trump spoke to a journalist from a major newspaper and told him, “I had Putin eating out of my hands.”

All the anomalies of this singular relationship were on display during those few hours in Hamburg: a US president determined to secure a good relationship with a leader he had consistently praised throughout his election campaign and after he entered the White House, despite the mounting evidence of Russian interference in the 2016 election; and a Russian ex-KGB leader intent on reaching out to and flattering the American president, at the same time as he excoriated the United States for a range of sins.

Trump had only one more meeting with Putin during his first year in office—this on the margins of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Vietnam. According to their joint statement, released after the pull-aside, they reiterated their determination to defeat ISIS in Syria, to maintain their military deconfliction channels in the Syrian war, and to seek a political solution to the crisis. 49

If Trump had hoped, as he said on the campaign trail, to make an early visit to Moscow, this was not to be. With the Russia investigations swirling and criticism for the praise he had given Putin during their first meeting, he was hamstrung. But Putin continued to leave the door open for better ties. During his speech at the 2017 Valdai Discussion Club forum, after blasting the United States for a range of sins, he chided those in the audience who questioned Trump’s performance in office: “He is being disrespected in the country. This is a deplorable, negative aspect of the American political system. You can argue, but you cannot show disrespect.” 50