Анджела Стент - Putin's World - Russia Against the West and with the Rest

Schroeder and Putin had much in common. They both were outsiders from poor backgrounds and both had climbed their way up the political ladder with ambition and intelligence. They both had studied law, developed a healthy skepticism about those in power, and appreciated the good life and wealth—having been deprived of it when they were young. 41

The German government soon responded to Russian overtures, and the relationship recovered from the difficulties of 1999. Both sides spoke of their “strategic partnership,” designed to integrate Russia into Europe and strengthen the rule of law. Indeed, Germany put a great deal of effort into crafting structures that would encourage Russia’s integration. These ranged from official bilateral commissions to encouragement of the private sector to enter Russia. But Berlin also focused on creating a group of civil society stakeholders. Putin and Schroeder founded the Petersburg Dialogue, whose regular meetings aimed to bring together a wide range of Germans and Russians from politics, the private sector, and academia. Although Schroeder had criticized Kohl for the over-personalized nature of the Germany-Russia relationship during Yeltsin’s tenure, he now admitted that “without President Putin little gets done in Russia.” 42

The terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center in New York on September 11, 2001, gave an additional impetus to German-Russian relations. Putin’s support for the United States reflected what appeared to be a strategic choice in siding firmly with the West against international terrorism. Shortly after the attacks, he traveled to Germany and made a historic speech in the newly restored glass-domed Berlin Reichstag, which is full of historical symbolism—including the graffiti on the walls left by triumphant Soviet soldiers as they completed their conquest of Berlin in 1945. Speaking in German, he regretted that he had not warned the West more directly about the possibility of such a catastrophic attack, made a direct connection between Al-Qaeda and Chechen separatists, and pledged support in the international fight against terrorism.

The Schroeder government reciprocated this view. Germany developed a strong stake in its bilateral economic and political relationship with Russia and viewed itself as Russia’s major advocate within the European Union. Schroeder believed that Putin was a modernizer who deserved personal support. The initial US-Russia rapprochement had soured by the end of 2002, as Putin came to believe that the Bush administration had not given Russia what it deserved after it supported the US in its war in Afghanistan. As the White House moved closer to attacking Iraq, Putin turned to Schroeder, both leaders wary of US military plans. Russian and German criticism of US plans eventually crystallized into a joint front (with France) against the war. Reacting to the anti-war troika, a US official complained that “Chirac and Schroeder turned against us and they recruited Putin.” 43This “coalition of the unwilling” did not develop into the alliance Putin might have wished for, but it ensured that Russia was not isolated in its opposition to the war.

Thereafter, until the end of Schroeder’s tenure in office, the bilateral relationship flourished. Roughly 200,000 Russians had come to live and work in Germany since 1992, moving between the two countries and building a network of personal and business ties. Venues for civil society interaction grew, as did the number of stakeholders in the relationship. Despite criticism in the German media of Putin’s moves toward a more centralized and less competitive political system and his muzzling of independent broadcast media, the chancellor continued to defend him.

Both Mikhail Gorbachev and Boris Yeltsin had the misfortune to be in power when oil prices were very low. This exacerbated Russia’s economic problems. Putin, however, was more fortunate. Oil prices rose steadily from 2000 to 2008, the Russian economy grew at a robust 7 percent per year, and Russian-German economic relations flourished. Energy became a key factor in the Russia-Germany relationship. The most significant aspect of Putin’s first two terms as president was the rise of Russia as an energy superpower.

During Schroeder’s tenure, Germany imported about 36 percent of its natural gas supplies through pipelines from Russia, although the figure was proportionately much higher in some parts of the country, especially Bavaria. After the 2004 Orange Revolution, when relations between Moscow and Kyiv were tense, Gazprom intensified its discussions with German companies about building a pipeline under the Baltic Sea to bypass Ukraine. The Nord Stream deal was signed in 2005, and the pipeline opened in 2011. From Gazprom’s point of view, it would solidify and possibly increase European—and especially German—reliance on Russian gas at a time of high energy prices as well as bypass Ukraine. It is the most visible—and controversial—legacy of the close ties between Schroeder and Putin. Today, in addition to his role in Nord Stream, Schroeder is the chairman of the board of Rosneft, Russia’s largest oil company, run by Igor Sechin, rumored to be one of the most powerful men in Russia.

At one of Angela Merkel’s early meetings with Putin, she came to understand with whom she was dealing. On a visit to Sochi in 2007 to discuss energy issues, she was sitting with him in his elegantly furnished residence overlooking the Black Sea. Suddenly his black Labrador Koni bounded into the room and jumped up on her. Merkel had previously been bitten by a dog and was known to fear dogs, a fact that surely had not been lost on her ex-KGB host. As she looked on uncomfortably, Putin smiled. Merkel was furious. She later commented to the press on this incident: “I understood why he has to do this to prove he is a man. He’s afraid of his own weakness. Russia has nothing, no successful politics or economy. All they have is this.” 44

Angela Merkel became Germany’s first woman chancellor in 2005. But she had won a narrow victory over Gerhard Schroeder and went into coalition with his Social Democratic Party (SPD), choosing Frank-Walther Steinmeier as her foreign minister. Her initial instinct was to toughen German policy toward Russia and move away from the Schroeder-Putin “bromance,” but she also understood the realities of Germany’s international situation. Germany relies heavily on exports—with a population of eighty million, its exports rank third in the world after the United States and China. As a geo-economic power, where trade is seen as a vital aspect of national security, Germany traditionally has defined its interests largely in terms of commercial realpolitik, viewing the pursuit of its economic interests as the ultimate test of the success of its foreign policy. 45Shortly after assuming office, Merkel met with representatives of German industry, who made it clear they expected her to continue to pursue close ties with Russia and support their business interests there.

Indeed, the new German government sought to further improve ties with Russia. During Merkel’s first term in office, Steinmeier was determined to continue the SPD’s policy of engagement with Russia and to create programs that would integrate Russia more closely into Europe. His ministry proposed a new policy of Annaeherung durch Verflechtung (Rapprochement Through Integration), an updated version of Willy Brandt’s original formulation of Change Through Rapprochement some four decades earlier. The premise was still that Russia would eventually change for the better if Germany engaged in a constant dialogue with it and took its interests seriously.

Germany encouraged Russia’s fuller participation in the G-8, postponing its own chairmanship by a year to give Russia the chair in 2006. Putin appreciated the gesture. The G-8 summit in Saint Petersburg that year was a major milestone for Russia, demonstrating that it had recovered from the economic collapse and political weakness of the 1990s and was once again a player. Moreover, Putin relished the attention being paid to his home city.