Акоп Назаретян - Нелинейное будущее

Zimmerli W. Who is to blame for data pollution? On individual moral responsibility with technology // Philosophy and technology II. Information technology and computers in theory and practice. Dortrecht etc.: D. Reidel, 1986: 291-305.

At the 1st page of the cover you find Alex Pinkin’s picture ‘The two hoses of Mega-History’

At the 4th page – Ivan Maximov’s picture ‘ The stairs of Universal evolution’

Why have social forecasts been so often unsuccessful? Opening remarks ………… 5

Introduction. The 21st century: A nonlinearity gradient ………………………….... 28

Part I. Trends & Mechanisms of Universal Evolution: An Essay on Mega-History………………………………………………………….... 39

Section 1.1. From Olduvai Gorge to Silicon Valley………………………………. 39

Ch.1.1.1. Vectors of social history…………………………………………….. 39

§1.1.1.1. Panhuman history: Realities & ideological representations……….. 40

§1.1.1.2. “Progress” & “happiness”: Are the emotional-evaluation criteria of historical development reliable? ………………………... 56

§1.1.1.3. Three vectors of social evolution: Technology – demography – organization………………………………………………………… 63

§1.1.1.4. The forth vector of evolution: Information & intelligence. “The end of geography”……………………………………………. 69

§1.1.1.5. The fifth vector of evolution: Restrictions in physical violence. Bloodshed Ratio as a cross-cultural index………………………….. 85

§1.1.1.6. The techno-humanitarian balance and the sixth vector of evolution: Virtualization……………………………………………102

§1.1.3.2. Evolutionary dynamics: The Law of requisite variety & the Law of hierarchical compensations……………………………..247

Section 1.2. From the Big Bang to the Olduvai…………………………………….265

Ch.1.2.1. Mega-evolution: Planetary & cosmic contexts of human history…………………………………………………......265

§1.2.1.1. The constructs of World, Global & Universal (Big) history………..265

§1.2.1.2. Versions of Universal history……………………………………….271

§1.2.1.3. Universal history, cybernetics & synergetics……………………….277

Ch.1.2.2. Continuity of the evolutionary mechanisms………………………..283

§1.2.2.1. Collisions of sustainable non-equilibrium in the biosphere………...283

§1.2.2.2. Expansion of evolutionary hyperbole, and – again on the counterfactuals……………………………………………………...290

§1.2.2.3. The cosmological arrow of time…………………………………….295

Part II. Humanitarian determinants of the future………………………………...301

Section 2.1. The midst of the 21st century: The Singularity Puzzle……………....301

Ch.2.1.1. “The laws of nature” & creative mind……………………………..301

§2.1.1.1. The Snooks-Panov Vertical. Mind as an agent of universal evolution…302

§2.1.1.2. The two key questions for strategic forecasting……………………306

Ch.2.1.2. The challenges of the 21st century…………………………………..320

§2.1.2.1. What is meant by “Global crisis”? …………………………………320

§2.1.2.2. Humanist culture and human biology………………………………322

§2.1.2.3. “Knowledge-enabled destruction”………………………………….325

§2.1.2.4. Attractors & scenarios………………………………………………329

Section 2.2. The world-vision paradigm for survival……………………………...344

Ch.2.2.1. Ideology vs . civilization?…………………………………………….344