146 Shai Danziger, Jonathan Levav, Liora Avnaim-Pesso . Extraneous Factors in Judicial Decisions // Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
147 http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/notrocketscience/2011/04/11/ justice-is-served-but-more-so-after-lunch-how-food-breaks-sway-the-decisions-of-judges/#.VYaU80Yk-So.
148 http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2014–06–10/news/chi-dna-links-murder-and-rape-of-holly-staker-11-to-second-murder-8-years-la-ter-20140610_1_holly-staker-dna-evidence-dna-match.
149 Интервью взято автором.
150 http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/breaking/ct-juan-rivera-shoes-met-20141210-story.html#page=1.
151 См. лекцию Стива Джонса: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=for_ WIKgdWg. See also Owen Barder: http://www.owen.org/blog/4018.
152 Включая Карла Поппера и Фридриха Хайека.
153 Tim Harford . Adapt: Why Success Always Starts with Failure. N. Y.: Little, Brown, 2011.
154 Paul Omerod, wn, 2011lway
155 Terence Kealey . The Economic Laws of Scientific Research. N. Y.: Palgrave Macmillan, 1996.
156 Taleb Nassim Nicholas . Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder, N. Y.: Penguin, 2013. (На рус. яз.: Талеб Н. Н . Антихрупкость. М.: КоЛибри, Азбука-Аттикус, 2013. Перевод Н. Караева.)
157 См.: Jonah Lehrer . The Decisive Moment. Edinburgh: Canongate, 2007. P. 47.
158 Daniel Kahneman . Thinking, Fast and Slow. N. Y.: Penguin, 2012. (На рус. яз.: Канеман Д. Думай медленно… решай быстро. М., 2013. Перевод А. Андреева, Ю. Деглиной и Н. Парфеновой.)
159 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-27579790.
160 Peter Sims. Little Bets: How Breakthrough Ideas Emerge from Small Discoveries. N. Y.: Random House Business, 2012.
161 Там же.
162 Ryan Babineaux, John Krumboltz . Fail Fast, Fail Often: How Losing Can Help You Win. N. Y.: Tarcher, 2014.
163 David Bayles, Ted Orland . Art and Fear: Observations on the Perils (and Rewards) of Artmaking. N. Y.: Image Continuum Press, 2001.
164 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vY3OtMBCEKY.
165 Eric Ries . The Lean Startup: How Constant Innovation Creates Radically Successful Businesses. N. Y.: Portfolio/Penguin, 2011.
166 Там же.
167 Там же.
168 Jim Collins, Morten T. Hansen . Great by Choice: Uncertainty, Chaos and Luck – Why Some Thrive Despite Them All. N. Y.: Random House Business, 2011.
169 Peter Sims. Little Bets.
170 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-27579790.
171 В беседе с автором.
172 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1470513/.
173 Данные проекта Disability Adjusted Life Years, оценка результатов продолжается.
174 Toby Ord . The Moral Imperative toward Cost-Effectiveness in Global Health // Center for Global Development. 2013. March.
175 http://lesswrong.com/lw/h6c/taking_charity_seriously_toby_ord_talk_ on_charity/.
176 https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/.
177 Scared Straight! («Испугаться и исправиться»), док. фильм, реж. Арнольд Шапиро, 1978 г.
178 «Испугаться и исправиться», комментарий Питера Фалька.
179 См.: James Finckenauer. Scared Straight: The Panacea Phenomenon Revisited. L.: Waveland Pv. Inc, 1998.
180 Peter W. Greenwood. Changing Lives: Delinquency Prevention as Crime Control Policy. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2007.
181 Цит. по фильму «Испугаться и исправиться».
182 Диаграммы взяты (с адаптацией) из Test, Learn Adapt © Crown, 2012 June, лицензировано на условиях Открытой правительственной лицензии. Воспроизводится с разрешения правообладателя.
183 Ben Goldacre . Bad Science. N. Y.: Harper Perennial, 2009.
184 Mark Henderson . The Geek Manifesto: Why Science Matters. N. Y.: Bantam Press, 2012.
185 См.: Ben Goldacre . Bad Pharma: How Drug Companies Mislead Doctors and Harm Patients. N. Y.: Faber & Faber, 2014.
186 Я благодарен Джиму Манци за то, что он изложил эти аргументы в своей книге Uncontrolled (N. Y.: Basic Books, 2012).
187 Jonathan Sheperd . The Production and Management of Evidence for Public Service Reform in Evidence and Policy.
188 Интервью взято автором.
189 James Finckenauer . Scared Straight.
190 Интервью взято автором.
191 Там же.
192 Там же.
193 См.: James Finckenauer, Scott O. Lilienfeld . Scientifically Unsupported and Supported Interventions for Childhood Psychopathology: A Summary // Pediatrics. Vol. 115. 2005. № 3. P. 761–764; а также Daniel P. Mears . Towards Rational and Evidence-based Crime Policy // Journal of Criminal Justice. Vol. 35. 2007. № 6. P. 667–682.
194 Приз Сильвермана.
195 http://reclaimingfutures.org/juvenile-justice-reform-scared-straight-facts-vs-hype.
196 A. Petrosino, C. Turpin-Petrosino, M. E. Hollis-Peel, J. G. Lavenberg . Scared Straight and Other Juvenile Awareness Programs for Preventing Juvenile Delinquency: A Systematic Review.
197 http://www.nytimes.com/2007/03/23/nyregion/23solve.html.
198 http://www.northjersey.com/news/neighbor-sentenced-in-decades-old-ridgefield-park-murder-1.1238173.
199 Воспроизводится с разрешения Эстер Дюфло.
200 https://www.ted.com/speakers/esther_duflo.
201 Jeffrey Sachs . The End of Poverty: How We Can Make It Happen in Our Lifetime (N. Y.: Penguin, 2005).
202 William Easterly . The White Man’s Burden: Why the West’s Efforts to Aid the Rest Have Done So Much Ill and So Little Good. N. Y.: Penguin Books, 2007.
203 Tim Harford . Adapt: Why Success Always Starts with Failure. N. Y.: Little, Brown, 2011.
204 https://www.ted.com/speakers/esther_duflo.
205 Abhijit Banerjee, Esther Duflo . Poor Economics: A Radical Rethinking of the Way to Fight Global Poverty. N. Y.: Penguin, 2012.
206 Alan G. Robinson, Sam Stern . Corporate Creativity: How Innovation and Improvement Actually Happen. Oakland, CA: Berrett-Koehler, 1998.
207 См.: Jim Manzi . Uncontrolled.
208 https://hbr.org/2009/02/how-to-design-smart-business-experiments.
209 Интервью взято автором.
210 Stephen J. Dubner and Steven D. Levitt . Think Like a Freak: How to Think Smarter About Almost Everything. L.: Allen Lane, 2014.
211 См. прекрасное эссе Эрика Риса: http://www.startuplessonslearned. com/2010/04/learning-is-better-than-optimization.html.
212 Эндрю Чэнь, ведущий блога о технологиях, замечательно доказал это в серии постов. Например: http://andrewchen.co/know-the-difference-between-data-informed-and-versus-data-driven/.
213 Интервью взято автором.
214 C. Nemeth, M. Personnaz, B. Personnaz, J. Goncalo . The Liberating Role of Conflict in Group Creativity: A Cross-Cultural Study // European Journal of Social Psychology. Vol. 34. 2004. P. 365–374. Подробнее см.: http://psychology.berkeley.edu/people/charlan-jeanne-nemeth#sthash. bVcF2wGG.dpuf.
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