Джон Шеттлер - Condition Zebra - The Next War - 2025

The more Sun Wei considered this, the more he realized that his fleet was now playing with the hand they had been dealt before the war. While he knew he had one good attack left with his excellent destroyers, once those missiles were fired, he did not know when he would be able to sortie again in any real strength, unless he moved to Aden, where the Red Sea war supplies were stockpiled.

The British were beaten, now fleeing south at 20 knots. Their one attack with Tomahawks and a few higher speed missiles had been easily parried. His fleet was now sitting 900 miles southeast of his East African bases, and he knew that his primary mission was to control and block the sea lanes on either side of Madagascar.

This he had done, and it was clear to him, and most likely clear to the Royal Navy as well, that they could not drive him off. A fleet in being is a powerful deterrent, he thought. And I must not forget the Americans. The last satellite report showed they have a Carrier Strike Group somewhere south of Jakarta. That poses no immediate danger, being 3000 miles away at the moment, but given the strategic situation now, it is my belief that the American Navy will move first to Diego Garcia, and then into the Arabian Sea. In that instance, it is very likely that I will receive orders to move my destroyers north towards the Horn of Africa, where we would link up with our squadrons posted at Djibouti and Aden. Then we face the United States Navy, and I must have missiles for that fight.

So as much as I might wish to crush the British now with the hundred cruise missiles I still have here, this fleet must live to fight another day….

The Admiral turned to his adjutant, his mind made up.

“Order the J-20’s to orbit in place. They may return to their bases when fuel status makes this necessary. Then inform all ship Captains that we are turning for home port. This battle has been won, and we must prepare for action in the days and weeks ahead. I will address the ship’s compliment tomorrow. That is all.”

Admiral Wells had been walking slowly back and forth on the bridge of Prince of Wales , a steady pacing that was not agitated, but reflective, measured. It was then that Captain Kemp came up to report that the last F-35 radar picket had just reported the Chinese fleet had turned.

“Turned? On what heading, Captain?”

“285 degrees northwest, sir.”

He gave the Admiral a searching look, waiting. The fleet had been running south, for Wells had it in his mind to try and reach the French Port Louis on Mauritius. That island was about 450 miles east of Madagascar, and from there he could at least watch the sea lane east of that big island with some authority. But his fleet had no teeth. Missiles would have to be flown in again from Diego Garcia, mostly SAM’s to give this fleet some ability to defend itself.

I could arm my F-35’s with SPEARS, enough being left for one more strike, but we still need those planes for fleet defense. They are my only shield now if we are attacked again. If I turn for Diego Garcia, there will be missiles waiting for me there. That’s where the Yanks are heading, and god knows we need them. So that’s where we will need to be, and soon. This Chinese Admiral could turn about and renew his pursuit at any time. Are they really going home?

“Captain,” he said. “The fleet will come about to a heading of 170 northeast. We’re going to Diego Garcia.”

As he watched the big bow of Prince of Wales begin that turn Wells knew he may have just been spared the ignominious fate of commanding the worst disaster in Royal Navy history. Ten ships were lost, and his flagship also bruised. His destroyers were empty, and the SAM’s on his frigates were useless. If the Chinese had hit him with another big salvo….

Yet he was going to escape. I was a near run thing, he thought, yes, a very near run thing, but we’re going to live to fight again.

A Joint US/UK enterprise, Diego Garcia was truly one of the most strategic military bases in the world. A reef atoll, it had a large deep water lagoon that could harbor ships of any size, and in great numbers. The weather was good, as cyclones never formed in this region, and there was also a 4000 meter runway that could handle everything up to the size of a B-52.

When Wells brought in his weary fleet at 06:00 on the 24th of November, he was heartened to know that the Royal Navy kept a permanent task force on station there, consisting of the light carrier Ark Royal , Type 31 frigate Brazen , and two Type-23 frigates, Kenya and one named for its permanent home base, Diego Garcia . Those two ships had gotten the word from Whale Island that they were to receive modifications, a modular system that would give them the American RIM-162 ESSM.

It came from the older Mark 29 launchers, which were deck mounted and wholly self-contained. This precluded the need for complex wiring for targeting radars, and so two eight cell launchers were placed on Diego Garcia and Kenya , giving each frigate 16 ESSM’s in addition to their 32 Sea Ceptors. It wasn’t much, but those missiles could mean the difference between life or death for the ship when targeted by a high speed supersonic missile like the YJ-18. After testing at sea, the system was shown to work well, and so as soon as Wells put into port, he asked the American Commandant if his last two frigates could also be updated with the Mark 29. As it happened, there were several more of those launchers in storage, as the US had removed them from ships in earlier upgrades to their own vessels.

The wisdom of US naval designers was now being proved in the crucible of this war. The LHA Makin Island was also here, with Destroyers Meade and McClelland , and Wells was impressed by the power they could bring to sea. Their Mark 41 VLS cells could be loaded with a wide range of missiles, and these ships were each mounted with 40 Tomahawk MMT’s, 24 of the new US Standard Missile-6, and quad packed ESSM’s numbering 96 missiles.

“Now there’s a destroyer worth the name,” said Wells after touring Meade . “Our Daring class are fine ships, but they were built in a long and welcome stretch of peacetime for us at sea. In that interval, they seemed enough to do the job for us, but these American destroyers are literally twice as powerful. They were built for war, just like those of our adversaries.”

Wells observed that the US LHA carrier had been given both the ESSM as a medium range defense, and then the shorter range RIM-116, good out to ten miles. Having those two circles of defense around it made the ship much more survivable.

“If we can take a leaf from the US designers, we would be making a step in the right direction,” said Wells. “Let’s get Norfolk and Kent refitted with those Mark 29 ESSM launchers as soon as possible. And we must move mountains to get Prince of Wales fully operational, particularly those elevators that took damage when we were hit.

“Yes sir,” said Captain Kemp, a short, sandy haired man. “The engineers are right on that. We’ll get it sorted out. At least it was good to know that Prince of Wales can take a punch.”

“Indeed,” said Wells. “Let’s make it so she doesn’t have to take another. The Americans will be here soon, and that should buck up morale.”

“Yes sir, the Roosevelt group is 450 miles to the east, and with three more of these destroyers, and two of their cruisers. They should arrive in about 18 hours. After that, we’ll have the combined Australian/US support group—27 ships, sir, and ten warships in that group. The rest are hauling war supplies and US Marines.”