Джон Шеттлер - Condition Zebra - The Next War - 2025

As the thunder of those last two explosions faded, Wells breathed a sigh of relief. Yes, he had lost another bloody frigate, but he had just enough of a defense left to hold the line, and now those 40 missiles that had been killed by the F-35’s before the YJ-18’s entered their final mad dash truly mattered.

“Tell the fighters to get that bloody AEW plane out there,” he ordered. “Boats away for search and rescue on Lancaster . Captain Kemp, what have we got left that can reach the Chinese?”

“Just twelve Sea Hawks, sir, and twenty SSM’s in the Argos Fire .”

“Let them fly. Let’s see if we can put them on the defensive, and buy some time to get fighters rearmed. How many planes are ready?”

“Only three, sir. The rest will turn over in a couple hours.”

“Very well. I’ll want a report from all destroyers on SAM counts.”

That was the crucial factor now in the mind of Admiral Wells—defense. How could he stop the bleeding, the loss of one ship after another? It would not take long to get that SAM update, and the news was grim. Daring had 15 Aster-30’s remaining, and Dragon only four. Broadsword had eight ESSM’s left. The two Type 42 destroyers still had plenty of Sea Darts, but being rail launched missiles, they could not volley fire like a VLS capable ship. That was a thin shield, particularly given the alert at 16:30 that the enemy had launched a second strike. Wells learned that only Argos Fire had any substantial defensive capability left. In modifying the ship, Fairchild & Company had doubled down on the VLS bays, so it still had 77 Asters available.

Commander Dean got the order to take Argos Fire west of the main fleet, and form a single ship screen. The carriers had but four fighters ready, but they would launch. These measures had to be enough, thought Wells. We simply cannot suffer any further losses here, and after this engagement, I must think on how to get this fleet to a safe harbor.

At 16:45, a lone F-35 had been given direct orders to ignore the incoming Vampires and forage ahead on military speed to get the Chinese KJ-200. It raced west, easily finding the AEW plane, and put two Meteors on it to end its brief watch. It was a very significant blow, because small circles of uncertainty now appeared around the last reported positions of all the British ships. The second enemy strike still had 42 missiles inbound, but now they had lost their long range radar picket, and the missiles would only fly towards the last reported position of their targets until they got close enough to use their own short range sensors.

When Wells learned the AEW plane had been killed, he clenched his fist, hoping he might have finally blinded the Chinese Fleet. Were there any more J-20’s about? If so, none had been detected in the last twenty minutes.

The air alert sounded. The first Vampires began to break the horizon. The last of the F-35’s exhausted their missiles to take down as many as they could. It was now 37 Vampires against whatever was left in those VLS cells, and much would ride on the Argos Fire , along with that ghost of a chance that the enemy may have lost their target fix. As the Vampires tracked in, many were north of the fleet, but some were close enough to turn and retarget. The SAM’s were leaping off every deck that had them, but the defense was just not good enough to stop a pair of leakers from getting past the destroyers. They found the frigate Birmingham , and Prince of Wales , their tails bright with fire as they attacked.

A hail of gunfire failed to stop them, and Admiral Wells felt his flagship shudder with the hit. Seconds later, he saw the Birmingham simply explode in ruin.

Fire, death, more blood in the sea, and another ship ravaged and sent to the bottom. Birmingham would die a quick death, consumed by flames, but at over 65,000 tons, Prince of Wales had weathered the blow she took. Damage was moderate, and flight operations would be inhibited, but that didn’t matter at that moment. The carrier would not have planes ready to fly again for a little over an hour, and that hour now meant everything.

The fleet still had Sea Darts in good numbers, but only 19 SAM’s of any other type that might kill a YJ-18. There were still two of the original five frigates alive, and they each had 32 Sea Ceptors that might defend against slower moving missiles. It was a critical situation that saw the fleet on the razor’s edge of oblivion. Wells knew that the only thing saving them for the moment was the fact that their enemy could no longer accurately fix their position… but that could change.

The Admiral shook his head, knowing deep down that the Royal Navy had been beaten here. It took every fighter we had to defend the fleet, he thought. They got over 50 kills on those incoming Sizzlers, and I can only imagine the havoc that would have reigned if those fallen missiles had been out there to come at us. I was lucky here to get off just losing the two frigates that went under. Prince of Wales is wounded, but still alive, yet she can only make 20 knots. We must disengage immediately, but can I find a safe port?

This is going to be a near run thing….

Admiral Sun Wei had called for more air support, and four J-20’s had sucked their drop tanks dry to get out nearly 900 miles. As he had done before, he could use them to find the British ships, but the planes could not linger very long before needing to turn for home. They might also run afoul of unseen enemy fighters, as the first two brave pilots who died hours earlier. This time, no KJ-200 followed the J-20’s, as only one remained at Mombasa, and the Air Force refused to release it for operations.

In spite of his clear victory here, he now had several stark facts before him that would weigh heavily on his mind as he contemplated how to proceed. He was not worried about his SAM defenses, as his destroyers still had over 200 HQ-9B’s available. On offense, his VLS bays still held a little over 100 missiles that could reach the enemy, most being the YJ-100 now, a slow subsonic cruise missile. But he also had 40 more YJ-18’s, the missile he had tormented the British with to gain this victory.

His problem was one that many Generals and Admirals before him had faced—logistics. To make his second sortie, he had used most of the missile inventories that had been stockpiled in East Africa. He had sent a message home to inquire about replacements, but the fact was that China had little in the way of long range military air transport. Only two planes had the necessary range, the Y-9 and the new Y-20 heavy lift plane.

The Y-9 was China’s answer to the American C-130, and could carry a payload a little over 20 tons, but there were only ten built. Cruise missiles are much bigger and heavier than many realized. One YJ-18 missile had a weight of 2300 kilograms, which was 2.3 tons. So you could only put nine or ten such missiles on a single Y-9 transport plane, and it would take every plane China built to airlift enough YJ-18’s to replace those he had fired in this battle.

The new Y-20 heavy cargo lifter could do better, but the Admiral had been told those planes were not available. Only five of these had been built, and only recently delivered. The Air Force was simply not willing to risk them in the long flight over the Arabian Sea, especially since the Americans had basing rights in Oman. This meant that a strategic airlift into Mombasa would not be likely in the near future. He might badger the Air force and shake lose two or three planes, but otherwise, missile replenishment cargos would have to first go by rail through Pakistan to the big port of Karachi, and then by sea to any other destination. If they could make the hazardous journey from Karachi to Djibouti, which was 1575 miles, then they could go by rail again to Mombasa. To do any of this would take time, first to get the higher authorities to approve the missile transport operation, and then to conduct it. It was not going to happen.