Джон Шеттлер - Condition Zebra - The Next War - 2025

So by now I should be well on my way to Diego Garcia, but any move there will leave a strong enemy fleet sitting astride my communications back to Cape Town, and closing the sea lanes I was sent here to open. Now I have but two viable options. I could sail west, threatening the Chinese bases in East Africa, which is one of my principle objectives. That would draw the enemy fleet north from Madagascar to oppose me, but it would also allow them to use whatever air power they have in east Africa.

I don’t like it.

Option two is to head due south and throw down the gauntlet again against this Chinese Admiral. I would stay well east of Madagascar, which then takes their East African air power out of the fight. I suppose they might try hopping it over to the island, which means I would need my Tomahawks to finish the job on those bases. Yes, that sounds like my best play. It’s either that, or I must fall back on Diego Garcia, which any sane man would do after the beating we just took. But no, I won’t slink off and lick my wounds. Very well, I will inform Whale Island as to my intentions, and unless I get countervailing orders, we move as soon as we have provisioned.

They were as ready as they could be. The emergency airlift from Diego Garcia to Victoria had brought in much needed supplies, and they helped themselves to diesel fuel in Port Victoria. Now it was time to move south and find the Chinese Fleet. It was a very big ocean, and the Merlin Crowsnest AEW Helo had but a 200 mile radar range, so Wells decided to use his F-35’s to form a forward radar picket as before. His first order of business was making sure the Chinese could not ferry air assets to the other bases in Madagascar, and for this he planned another surprise Tomahawk strike. With a 1600 mile range, they could fly paths to avoid the suspected position of the enemy fleet, and then turn to strike the bases from an unexpected direction. It would keep them well out of range of the enemy SAM’s, but the only rub was that the actual position of the Chinese fleet was as yet unknown.

DDG Daring had 16 TACTOM’s, and frigate Birmingham was an experimental configuration of a type 23 for land attack, carrying 24 more TACTOM’s in a Mark 41 VLS Bay. That put 40 arrows in the quiver of Admiral Wells, and he started using them at 06:00. Some would inadvertently fly paths that took them too close to the Chinese, and would fall victims to their HQ-9’s, but this only served to clue Wells as to the location of the enemy ships.

Only two were shot down, revealing the enemy position, and nine more swept south then cut across the wide rugged island of Madagascar heading for Narinda Bay on the east coast. They were completely undetected, hugging the terrain as they came in, and began striking targets all over that airfield. The communications jamming station the Chinese had set up was destroyed, and the aircraft hangars damaged and set on fire, destroying two rare J-11 fighters and a Z-8 helicopter. Four missiles targeting the west coast base of Toamasina hit the runway access points and naval docks. When it was over, nothing could fly from either airfield, and Madagascar was neutralized as an operating base for the foreseeable future.

So the second round has begun, thought Admiral Sun Wei. They have tested me, and most likely localized my position when we took down those two cruise missiles. And they are once again attempting to ruin our bases on Madagascar. My problem now is that I do not know where they are. I have two submarines picketed 125 miles to the north, but they report nothing. The base at Andrakaka is still not functional, and so I can only wait for satellite reports.

Yet there is one thing more I might do… Our planes in East Africa are 700 miles away now, but what if I called for a J-10 to mount nothing but reserve fuel, as if for a ferry operation. It could come out here, and linger for some time, using its radars like an AEW plan to help me locate the British fleet.

It was an excellent idea, and so he ordered the field at Dar es Salam to send one fighter due east, and another to move to Narinda Bay and see if the condition of that airfield permitted a landing. The first would get to a position 250 miles northeast of his fleet when it came under attack by enemy fighters and was destroyed. It was a callous thing to do, ordering that lone pilot out into harm’s way like that, but it had at least given the Admiral some clue. The British had to be operating further east of the point of that interception, though he was still in the dark as to exactly where.

This British Admiral learns quickly, he thought. He is staying far from our East African bases, denying me air cover and useful reconnaissance. Finding his ships may not be easy this time, as the YJ-18 is somewhat particular on downrange ambiguity when it comes to targeting. I cannot kill what I cannot see, but I must assume the enemy is already one step ahead, and knows exactly where I am….

The Admiral was struggling to forge the first link in his kill chain, find the enemy, and the loss of his J-10 told him this battle may not be easy. At 12:45, radar reports began to slowly get traces of enemy ship contacts. They had a lot of uncertainty, but over the next few minutes, those rectangles compressed to a point some 330 miles due east of his position. He could see two British helicopters were up, one very near the surface contact group, and another midway between his ships and the enemy. In his mind, he could hear the blacksmith hammering on that first link. Now was the time to test those contacts, and see if he could get a target solution with a long range YJ-100.

Sun Wei waited, and finally locked on, sending two YJ-100’s off the Type 055 destroyer Nanchang . If he at least got them close to the target, the screening ships would have to respond, which meant they would go to active radars. That could help him further refine his contacts. At 500 miles an hour, his missiles would be 15 minutes getting to the enemy, but Sun Wei was a very patient man.

As it happened, the two F-35’s on radar picket had gone bingo fuel, and were already heading back to the carrier. So when the Merlin AEW helo picked up those two Vampires, Admiral Wells also collected some good intelligence. The enemy had turned on a heading of 90 degrees, and now he had fired two missiles…. So he at least had the scent, and was probably trying to flush out the quarry with this small jab. He would order Captain Kemp to send up the next two F-35’s and deal with the missiles before they got close.

Flight Whalesign 3 was up a minute later, and winging its way west. It took three Meteors, but the two planes dispatched those YJ-100’s easily enough, spoiling Admiral Sun Wei’s plan.

Frustrated, the Admiral signaled Dar es Salam to send two J-20s and a KJ-200 AEW plane. That at least had the range to get out here, and it could post itself right behind his ships, well within their protective SAM envelope. With drop tanks, those J-20’s could also reach his fleet, then he would be prepared to order them to use their radars to nail down the enemy location, and this time, if the F-35’s interfered, his Falcon Eagles could fight. He ordered his fleet to come ten degrees right, and all ahead full.

Admiral Wells now contemplated his options. With every fighter still armed for air superiority and missile defense, he had no air strike card to play at this hour. But he had three ships that could fight at this range, which was just under 300 nautical miles. He knew his enemy would soon be coming into range with all their YJ-18’s, and seeing that they had increased speed to 25 knots made him feel like a horde of enemy cavalry had just gone from a canter to the gallop. The only thing preventing them from firing now, he knew, was that they may not be able to get good target locks this far out.