Джон Шеттлер - Condition Zebra - The Next War - 2025

“Well, we’ve also put the Ceptors on the newer Type 26. What in blazes are we going to do about this? We can’t very well rip those missiles out of all those VLS bays, can we?”

“It’s something we’ll have to think about. Our Type 31 does just a little better with the American ESSM. We may have to make a crash effort to use that system.”

“Could it be done?”

“Chili did it with the three older Type 23’s we sold them. The Yanks shipped them everything they needed, including the Mark 41 VLS bays and ESSM fire controller.”

“The missile won’t fit into the CAMMs bay?”

“Sea Ceptor is 3.2 meters long and weighs 99 kilograms. The ESSM is 3.6 meters long and weighs 280 Kilograms.”

“Three times the weight?” Admiral Cooper inclined his head. “Would that be a problem?”

“It wasn’t one for Chile. Sir, we’ve got four Type 23’s in home waters, and we might start with them if we can get the necessary missiles and equipment from the United States.”

“Very well…. Look into it. But this won’t do us much good now in the Indian Ocean. What’s the latest from Singapore?”

“There was another big attack on the RSN frigates standing the watch now, mostly with the older Chinese YJ-83 cruise missiles. It was quite intense, but it was defeated without further losses. Those ships have the Aster 15.”

“Indeed. Is that a consideration for our frigates?”

“Possibly, but we would have the same size and weight problem. Aster 15 is 310 Kilograms, and it needs a full cell for every missile. If we go with the American system, we can quad pack four ESSM’s into one cell.”

“And it can stop these YJ-18’s?”

“Yes sir. It has the necessary speed, and with a bigger warhead. The missile can even be used effectively against patrol craft and other small boats, and the ESSM has twice the range of our new Sea Ceptors.”

Admiral Cooper nodded. “A pity that nobody thinks these things through before we get into a situation like this. I suppose this is as much my fault as that of anyone else. At the moment, with the ships already deployed, we must play the hand we have dealt, but surely exercise more caution, and see that the frigates are defended.”

“They’re still capable, sir,” said Admiral Oliver. “It’s only been this one enemy missile that they’ve been unable to track and kill. I would suggest we use them in tight around our carriers, and for ASW purposes, but by no means should they ever be picketed forward of the main body. If a forward screen is posted, that job will have to go to the destroyers.”

“See that Admiral Wells is notified of this, Mister Oliver. He’s about to lock horns with the Chinese off Madagascar, is he not?”

“Yes sir. It seems that has just about come to the boil. I’ll get a message off immediately.”

“Interesting,” said Vice Admiral James Wells. “This is a rather pointed warning from Whale Island.”

“Yes sir, and I’ll vouch for it. Sea Ceptor is a fine weapon system, but it has one blind spot—missiles at high supersonic speeds.” Commodore John Charles “Jack” Westfield, Commander of TF Vengeance , had joined Captain Grant off the Victorious for a meeting of the senior officers.

“For that we need the Aster system,” said Westfield, “or the American ESSM installed on our new Type 31’s.”

“There’s talk of trying to retrofit that missile on our other frigates.”

“That won’t happen soon,” said Grant. “I can say the same about the Sea Ceptor. Frankly, without the Type 45 destroyers, we would be in trouble here if they have a good number of destroyers out there with the YJ-18.”

“Very well, then we’ll abide by this cruising order. The frigates form the inner screen, destroyers out on point. We’ll just have to fill the hole in our overall defensive scheme with the F-35’s. Those will be our forward pickets, not ships.”

“Good enough,” said Westfield. “Admiral, what’s the plan?”

Wells walked them over to the lighted map table, pointing at the northern tip of Madagascar. “We thought they were going to mass here, north of the island,” he said. “But in the last 24 hours they’ve fallen back off the coast of Tanzania and Kenya.”

“Air cover,” said Captain Grant. “If they stay off Madagascar, then they have just this one small airfield at Toamasina, and this one here at Andrakaka on Madagascar. They may joust with us from those fields, but if I were the Chinese, I’d want to be off the East African coast, closer to the bigger bases there.”

“Right,” said Wells. “They’ll have four fields there, Dar es Salam and Zanzibar in Tanzania, and Mombasa and Lamu in Kenya. Most of their air strength will be at Dar es Salam and Mombasa. Intelligence estimates they have no more than 20 aircraft on Madagascar, but perhaps twice that in East Africa below the Horn. Yet it’s the naval threat that we’ll have to deal with. They haven’t shown any real ability to use their air force to interdict sea traffic. Their destroyers and frigates are another matter. We’ll be opposed by at least twenty ships, and an unknown number of submarines.”

“A fleet the size of the one they pressed on Singapore,” said Captain Grant.

“Yes, but with many more destroyers here. At Singapore, the Chinese used their carrier Zhendong to good effect, and reports indicate our F-35’s were matched by the Chinese J-31. I doubt if we’ll see that plane here, but they will have the J-20, so the pilots will have to be sharp. Here, they’ll be relying on their destroyers, and land based air assets. Hence this withdrawal towards East Africa. From a position there, they can still get support from their bases in northern Madagascar.”

“Just how many enemy destroyers will we be looking at, sir?”

“Fourteen, which means they outnumber us two to one in that category. The advantage we have, of course, is three carriers, and that means we’ll have to use them as strike assets, not simply for air superiority. I’ll want flights armed with both SPEAR and Storm Shadow, and at the ready.”

“Will we retain our present TF assignments, sir?” asked Grant.

“Correct,” said Wells. “I considered grouping all three carriers in one TF, but once identified, it would become the primary target, so we’ll continue to operate in separate formations as presently established. Now then, gentlemen, they’ve had a good long while to get sorted out, so this is likely to heat up soon once we come into range. We will be facing an Admiral Sun Wei, coming up through the ranks in their South Seas Command. Unfortunately, not much is known about the man, though he was a strong proponent of Chinese expansion into the Indian Ocean. Now he sleeps in the bed they made.”

“Time we woke them up, sir,” said Captain Grant, always ready for a scrap at sea.

“Indeed, but let’s us be careful what we wish for here. Five years ago one might come across the occasional article in defense related sites concerning China’s slow and quiet entry into the Indian Ocean. It started with Djibouti, then Hambantoa on Sri Lanka, and look at them now. They’re even roosting out in the Seychelles at Victoria Harbor! Now we see what it was all bending towards. Here we are, with half the Royal Navy, and we’ll have to fight our way forward from this point on. Our mission is a simple one, sea control. Without it, the Yanks can’t reinforce Saudi Arabia as planned, and that situation could erupt at any time. We’ll begin by putting our land attack ordnance on the Madagascar bases to clear our left and rear as we advance. May God be with us, gentlemen, and remember, destroyers forward—frigates in the second rank.”