George Friedman - The Next Decade

Four things are needed. First, a nation that has an unsentimental understanding of the situation it is in. Second, leaders who are prepared to bear the burden of reconciling that reality with American values. Third, presidents who understand power and principles and know the place of each. But above all, what is needed is a mature American public that recognizes what is at stake and how little time there is to develop the culture and institutions needed to manage the republic cast in an imperial role. Without this, nothing else is possible. The situation is far from hopeless, but it requires an enormous act of will for the country to grow up.

Every author of every book is indebted to many people whose thoughts and writings his own rest upon. My more immediate debts are to Rodger Baker, Peter Zeihan, Colin Chapman, Reva Bhalla, Kamran Bokhari, Lauren Goodrich, Eugene Chausovsky, Nate Hughes, Marko Papic, Matt Gertken, Kevin Stech, Emre Dogru, Bayless Parsley, Matt Powers, Jacob Shapiro, and Ira Jamshidi. Each of them helped make this book better than it might have been otherwise. I would also like to thank Ben Sledge and T. J. Lensing for producing the maps—not, I’ve learned, an easy task. My thanks to the Army and Navy Club Library in Washington, D.C., for all its help.

My special thanks to Jim Hornfischer, my literary agent, for his support and encouragement; to my editor at Doubleday, Jason Kaufman, for his unrelenting confidence in me and his always helpful criticism; and to Rob Bloom. Bill Patrick helped turn my turgid prose into much better prose. Susan Copeland kept me on track and organized. I am grateful to everyone at STRATFOR, including our readers, for their lively support and criticism. And, above all, I thank my wife, Meredith, as always, my rock and my guide.

George Friedman is the founder and CEO of STRATFOR, the world’s leading publisher of global geopolitical intelligence. He is frequently called upon as a media expert and is the author of six books, including the New York Times bestseller The Next 100 Years , and numerous articles on national security, geopolitics, and the intelligence business. He lives in Austin, Texas.

The Next 100 Years

America’s Secret War

The Future of War

The Intelligence Edge

The Coming War with Japan

Political Philosophy of the Frankfurt School

Copyright © 2011 by George Friedman

All rights reserved. Published in the United States by Doubleday, a division of Random House, Inc., New York, and in Canada by Random House of Canada, Limited, Tonronto.

www.doubleday.com

DOUBLEDAY and the DD colophon are registered trademarks of Random House, Inc.

All maps created by STRATFOR

Jacket design by Emily Mahon

Jacket photograph © Chad Baker/Getty Images

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Friedman, George.

The next decade / George Friedman.

p. cm.

1. World politics—21st century—Forecasting. I. Title.

D863.F75 2011

909.83’1—dc22 2010043116

eISBN: 978-0-385-53295-2

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