James Barrington - Foxbat

North Korea’s one million or so soldiers are organized into 170 brigades and divisions that include special operations groups, artillery, tank and infantry units, and about sixty of these are permanently located south of a line running between Pyongyang and Wonsan. The country has deployed well over half of its forces close to the DMZ, and about seventy per cent of its front-line troops – some 700,000 men, 2,000 tanks and 8,000 artillery pieces – are permanently based within a hundred miles of the Demilitarized Zone. Many of these units are located in underground or hardened facilities, almost a North Korean trademark, of which there are more than four thousand close to the DMZ.

And it’s not just troops on the ground. The North Korean Navy, a significant force in its own right, has positioned the majority of its surface vessels and submarines in forward bases on both coastlines of the peninsula, near to the DMZ. Forty per cent of the country’s 800 fighter aircraft are also based very close to the border. Without repositioning a single soldier, vehicle or aircraft, the DPRK is capable of launching a major attack on South Korea within a matter of hours.

But Pak Je-San had no intention of doing any such thing: his plan was a good deal more subtle, and should, he hoped, take the Americans and the South Koreans completely by surprise and negate their carefully constructed defensive strategy. Details of the constantly evolving Oplan 5027 have been known within Pyongyang and the country at large for well over a decade. In fact, news statements in the North Korean media frequently refer to it by name.

The mountainous terrain of the Korean Peninsula would largely dictate the way any invasion must be conducted, as was equally obvious to the planners in Washington and Seoul. The advance towards Seoul by ground forces would have to proceed down the Chorwon, Kaesong-Munsan and Kumwa corridors, crossing the Imjin or Han rivers, and the troops would then be facing well-prepared defences, including the South Barrier Fence, manned by South Korean and American troops of the Combined Forces Command.

Standard battle tactics decree that any attack across the DMZ would be preceded by a major artillery barrage, possibly by special forces’ raids against highly specific strategic targets, and even by missile- or artillery projectile-delivered chemical and biological weapons designed to kill or incapacitate the defenders.

The Combined Forces Command perception is that any invasion of South Korea would be conducted in three phases. In the first, the ground forces would smash through the CFC defences and destroy their ability to counter-attack. In the second phase, Seoul itself would be isolated and captured. This would be the prime objective, because nearly half of the population of South Korea lives within forty miles of the nation’s capital. The third phase would be essentially mopping-up exercises, before the occupation of the entire peninsula.

To counter this, Oplan 5027 postulates that substantial numbers of American troops – nearly 700,000 men – and armour would be landed in the south of the peninsula and that these assets, supported by aerial bombardment, should be able to push the DPRK forces back north of the DMZ. Amphibious assaults into North Korea would isolate and surround the enemy, and air power would help destroy their land forces in the narrow passes through which they’d have to travel. The ultimate intention of the Oplan, since its 1998 revision, is to continue the advance north to capture Pyongyang, eliminate the DPRK leadership there, and thus place the whole of the peninsula under South Korean control.

And all that, of course, was also known to Pak Je-San, which was exactly why he’d devised ‘Golden Dawn’.

Seoul, South Korea

The flight to Seoul was nothing like as bad as Richter had expected, Aeroflot having come a long way since the last time he’d flown with the airline, but it was still a hell of a long haul from Moscow to Korea.

He had never been comfortable sleeping on an aircraft unless he was absolutely exhausted, and he was far from tired as he boarded the flight. Despite reading distractedly for a couple of hours, and then lying with the seat reclined as far as it would go, sleep still eluded him.

The first thing he did on departing Kimpo International Airport was to switch on his Enigma mobile. Less than thirty seconds after it reported good signal strength, he stepped away from the group of Asian businessmen standing waiting for taxis in front of him to answer it.

‘Richter,’ he announced.

‘You’ve taken your time. I’ve been trying to get hold of you for ages.’

‘I’ve been on an aircraft for the last twelve hours, Simpson. In case you didn’t know, you’re supposed to switch off your mobile while you’re in the air.’

That wasn’t strictly true, but Richter had left his phone turned off deliberately, on the off-chance that he might get some sleep.

‘Things have been developing since you left Moscow,’ Simpson continued regardless, and he then explained Washington’s concern about the DPRK troop movements their satellites had detected north of the Korean Demilitarized Zone.

‘So what are they doing about it?’ Richter asked.

‘Pretty much as you’d expect,’ Simpson sighed. ‘They’ve asked for an emergency session of the United Nations so that Pyongyang can have a chance to explain exactly what they’re doing.’

‘They’ll insist it’s just an exercise,’ Richter interrupted.

‘They already have. So then Washington broke protocol and contacted the North Koreans direct. They claimed it’s a routine exercise called “Silver Spring”, but nobody believes them. The Americans will continue with the usual diplomacy, but I don’t think they seriously expect anything useful to come of it, so they’re now also looking at military options. Their nearest surface group, the Enterprise CBG, is currently in the north Pacific and still a couple of days away from Korea. So they’ve now hiked the alert state to DEFCON Four.’

‘That’s not good news.’

‘No.’ Simpson’s tone was uncharacteristically subdued. ‘We’re not fully in the loop here, but the Intelligence Director thinks the Yanks will probably target North Korean airfields and military bases with their ICBMs, silo- and sub-launched, and inform Pyongyang that they’ve done so, just to try to make them back down. Or, in case they really are conducting this “Silver Spring” thing, to make sure that it stays just an exercise.’

‘What do you want me to do?’

‘First, make your number with the NIS, then request them to fly you down to Kunsan as soon as possible.’

‘Which is where, exactly? And what do I do when I get there?’

‘It’s an air base on the west coast of South Korea. Let me know your likely arrival time as soon as you’ve worked it out, so I can coordinate things from here.’

‘What things, exactly?’

‘You’re going back to sea, Richter. The Illustrious has been retasked by their Lordships at the Admiralty, and she’s lurking around somewhere off the Korean Peninsula right now, ready to help repel boarders. I’ll ask them to send a chopper for you. I want you to get on board and brief the captain on what you found out in Russia, and what you think the North Koreans are likely to do next.’

‘Terrific,’ Richter replied, with a marked lack of enthusiasm.

‘I thought you’d like that,’ Simpson rang off abruptly.

As Richter slipped the mobile phone back into his jacket pocket, a smartly dressed Korean approached him somewhat diffidently.

‘Mr Richter?’ he asked, and received a nod.

Looking relieved, the man pulled out a wallet to show an identification badge comprising an eight-pointed gold star inside a blue circle, with the words ‘National Intelligence Service’ inscribed around the lower half of the circle, and what was presumably the same legend in Korean around the top half. On the opposite side of the wallet was a plastic card with the man’s name, photograph and personal details.