James Barrington - Foxbat

A four-ring captain stood beside the podium. He’d already run through the substance of the raft of signals they’d received from both the Americans and the Chief of the Defence Staff in London, and he’d just finished the operational appreciation and tactical situation.

‘In your opinion, how much of this is pure speculation on the Americans’ part?’ CINCFLEET demanded.

‘Frankly, sir, I think most of it. All they know for sure is that there are troop movements taking place north of the Korean Demilitarized Zone that could be interpreted as the prelude to an invasion, though they’re also consistent with the pre-planned exercise designated “Silver Spring”. They also know that the North Koreans have obtained a minimum of ten MiG-25 interceptors. But in the overall scheme of things, I don’t believe a dozen Foxbats will make any significant difference, bearing in mind that our intelligence suggests that the North Koreans can already field over eight hundred combat aircraft.’

‘What’s your analysis of the Americans’ suggestion that those MiG-25s are intended to intercept incoming ballistic missiles?’

‘I believe it’s fanciful at best, sir. I understand the Russians have confirmed it was specially designed for that tasking, but I personally doubt if any aircraft would be capable of achieving this. The speeds involved would be just too great, and the intercept calculations too complex. I also don’t myself believe that the North Koreans are planning to invade the South, so I think the Americans are reading far more into this situation than the evidence warrants.’

‘Noted,’ the admiral said. ‘Very well, we’ve been instructed to assist, so what assets do we have in that area?’

The captain stepped across to the large-scale drop-down chart he’d been using to show North Korean troop movements, and indicated an area towards the south of the peninsula. ‘About here, sir, off the southern tip of Japan, is the Illustrious group, returning home after a deployment to Australia, and presently en route between Tokyo and Manila. As well as the carrier, which has seven Harriers embarked, the group includes the Type 42 destroyer Edinburgh and two frigates: HMS Cornwall , a Type 22, and the Type 23 HMS Portland .’

‘Support?’

‘They have four Royal Fleet Auxiliaries in company – the tankers Oakleaf and Grey Rover , and two of the Fort-class solid-stores vessels, namely Fort George and Fort Austin .’

‘What assets have the Americans got, apart from their troops in South Korea?’

The captain pulled down a larger-scale map and pointed to a spot in the northern Pacific Ocean. ‘The USS Enterprise Carrier Battle Group is currently about here. According to Washington, it’s en route towards North Korea but realistically they don’t expect it to reach the area for at least two or three days. Their best forecast is fifty hours, but there’s a tropical storm brewing to the north-east of the Korean Peninsula, and the CBG’s arrival time will depend on how the weather system develops, and whether or not the ships have to detour around it.’

The admiral made the only decision possible, his instructions from Downing Street and the CDS having been most specific. ‘Very well,’ he said. ‘Signal Illustrious and tell her and her escorts to take on fuel to their maximum capacity. Then the group is to split. Illustrious and Cornwall are to proceed north into the Yellow Sea, while Oakleaf and Fort George are to follow and catch up as quickly as they can.

‘ Edinburgh and Portland are to move into the Sea of Japan and the two remaining RFAs are to follow. Once there, this group is to hold position off the east coast of the Korean Peninsula, keeping well clear of territorial waters, and then monitor shore and air activity north of the DMZ.

‘ Illustrious is to report passing abeam the southern tip of the peninsula, and is then to hold position south-west of Inchon, outside Korean territorial waters, pending diplomatic clearance from Seoul to move closer.

‘The Air Group is to prepare for both offensive and defensive operations, including Combat Air Patrol and ground attack, and all ships are to ensure that they carry sufficient warshots to conduct autonomous real-world operations for a minimum period of three days, pending the arrival of the auxiliaries. Detailed tasking instructions will follow. Any questions?’

The captain shook his head. ‘No, sir.’

‘Finally,’ CINCFLEET added, addressing the assembled officers, ‘I’ve received further instructions regarding our independent nuclear deterrent. Downing Street has instructed the CDS to retask our patrolling submarine until this crisis is resolved. I will be issuing separate orders to HMS Victorious in due course.’

Rossyia Hotel, Moscow

Paul Richter closed his laptop, disconnected the power cable and tucked everything away in the leather carrying case. His small suitcase was already packed and sitting beside the door of his hotel room. Three minutes later he walked out of the building and climbed into the taxi he’d ordered. He had nearly three hours before his flight to Seoul was due to leave Moscow, which even by Russian standards should be time enough.

HMS Victorious , Barents Sea

Commander-In-Chief Fleet exercises operational control of Britain’s Trident boats, which provide the independent nuclear deterrent. Unlike surface ships, which can both send and receive detailed messages via satellite wherever they are in the world, communicating with submarines is difficult. The deeper the boat submerges, the more difficult communications become. The standard operating procedure is for submarines to deploy a short aerial designed to receive Extremely Low Frequency signals. ELF is very slow, so it’s only possible to send a very small number of characters in a given time period – normally between two and four characters a minute. Passing a complete operational message by this means would clearly be impossible, so ELF is only used to transmit a coded warning to a submarine.

This type of message is a repeated sequence of a few characters. The acronym, when decoded, will advise the submarine that an operational message is going to be transmitted, the time it will be sent and the transmission method. At the specified time, the submarine will reduce its depth and either trail a long aerial reaching up to just below the surface, or else extend a vertical aerial above the water from the sail. The former is slow but relatively secure, while the above-surface aerial allows reception of high-speed transmissions but naturally carries a greater risk of detection.

Just over an hour after the briefing finished at Northwood, a Group Warning Signal was transmitted to HMS Victorious , the single ‘boomer’ on patrol, from the ELF radio relay station situated near Rugby in Warwickshire. Twenty-five minutes afterwards, a Military Flash Operational Tasking Signal was relayed by communications satellite to the submarine. Five minutes after this signal had been received, the boat was again submerged at its normal operating depth.

Saturday

North Korea

In some ways, the programmed troop movements were overkill, but Pak Je-San knew that they’d only have this one chance and he was determined to get it right.

Even before any reservists were called up, or a single vehicle or aircraft started its engine, the regular forces of North Korea were already able to unleash a devastating attack on their southern neighbour. Because of Seoul’s proximity to the DMZ, the South Korean capital was within range of some five hundred North Korean artillery pieces, including the 170-millimetre Koksan gun, and over two hundred 240-millimetre multiple-rocket launchers. It has been assessed by Western intelligence agencies that the North Korean forces could, without any significant troop or artillery movements, unleash a barrage of up to half a million rounds per hour against Seoul and other strategic targets in the north of the country, and could sustain that level of assault for several hours.