Dick Francis - Odds against

‘For a fat fee, I suppose,’ he said dubiously.

‘I’m afraid so, sir, yes.’

‘I don’t connect you with this sort of thing, Sid.’ He moved restlessly and looked at his watch.

‘If you would forget about me being a jockey, and think of me as having come from Mr Radnor, it would make things a lot easier. How much is Seabury worth to National Hunt racing?’

He looked at me in surprise, but he answered the question, though not in the way I meant.

‘Er… well you know it’s an excellent course, good for horses and so on.’

‘It didn’t show a profit this year, though.’

‘There was a great deal of bad luck.’

‘Yes. Too much to be true, don’t you think?’

‘What do you mean?’

‘Has it ever occurred to the National Hunt Committee that bad luck can be… well… arranged?’

‘You aren’t seriously suggesting that Kraye… I mean that anyone would damage Seabury on purpose? In order to make it show a loss?’

‘I am suggesting that it is a possibility. Yes.’

‘Good God.’ He sat down rather abruptly.

‘Malicious damage,’ I said. ‘Sabotage, if you like. There’s a great deal of industrial precedent. Hunt Radnor Associates investigated a case of it only last year in a small provincial brewery where the fermentation process kept going wrong. A prosecution resulted, and the brewery was able to remain in business.’

He shook his head. ‘It is quite ridiculous to think that Kraye would be implicated in anything like that. He belongs to one of my clubs. He’s a wealthy, respected man.’

‘I know, I’ve met him,’ I said.

‘Well then, you must be aware of what sort of person he is.’

‘Yes.’ Only too well.

‘You can’t seriously suggest…’ he began.

‘There would be no harm in finding out,’ I interrupted. ‘You’ll have studied the figures. Seabury’s quite a prize.’

‘How do you see the figures, then?’ It seemed he genuinely wanted to know, so I told him.

‘Seabury Racecourse has an issued share capital of eighty thousand pounds in fully paid-up one pound shares. The land was bought when that part of the coast was more or less uninhabited, so that this sum bears absolutely no relation to the present value of the place. Any company in that position is just asking for a takeover.

‘A buyer would in theory need fifty-one per cent of the shares to be certain of gaining control, but in practice, as was found at Dunstable, forty would be plenty. It could probably be swung on a good deal less, but from the point of view of the buyer, the more he got his hands on before declaring his intentions, the bigger would be his profit.

‘The main difficulty in taking over a racecourse company — it’s only natural safeguard, in fact — is that the shares seldom come on the market. I understand that it isn’t always by any means possible to buy even a few on the Stock Exchange, as people who own them tend to be fond of them, and as long as the shares pay any dividend, however small, they won’t sell. But it’s obvious that not everyone can afford to have bits of capital lying around unproductively, and once the racecourse starts showing a loss, the temptation grows to transfer to something else.

‘Today’s price of Seabury shares is thirty shillings, which is about four shillings higher than it was two years ago. If Kraye can manage to get hold of a forty per cent holding at an average price of thirty shillings, it will cost him only about forty-eight thousand pounds.

‘With a holding that size, aided by other shareholders tempted by a very large capital gain, he can out-vote any opposition, and sell the whole company to a land developer. Planning permission would almost certainly be granted, as the land is not beautiful, and is surrounded already by houses. I estimate that a developer would pay roughly a million for it, as he could double that by selling off all those acres in tiny plots. There’s the capital gains tax, of course, but Seabury shareholders stand to make eight hundred per cent on their original investment, if the scheme goes through. Four hundred thousand gross for Mr Kraye, perhaps. Did you ever find out how much he cleared at Dunstable?’

He didn’t answer.

I went on, ‘Seabury used to be a busy, lively, successful place, and now it isn’t. It’s a suspicious coincidence that as soon as a big buyer comes along the place goes downhill fast. They paid a dividend of only sixpence per share last year, a gross yield of under one and three-quarters per cent at today’s price, and this year they showed a loss of three thousand, seven hundred and fourteen pounds. Unless something is done soon, there won’t be a next year.’

He didn’t reply at once. He stared at the floor for a long time with the half-eaten sandwich immobile in his hand.

Finally he said, ‘Who did the arithmetic? Radnor?’

‘No… I did. It’s very simple. I went to Company House in the City yesterday and looked up the Seabury balance sheets for the last few years, and I rang for a quotation of today’s share price from a stockbroker this morning. You can easily check it.’

‘Oh, I don’t doubt you. I remember now, there was a rumour that you made a fortune on the Stock Exchange by the time you were twenty.’

‘People exaggerate so,’ I smiled. ‘My old governor, where I was apprenticed, started me off investing, and I was a bit lucky.’

‘Hm.’

There was another pause while he hesitated over his decision. I didn’t interrupt him, but I was much relieved when finally he said, ‘You have Radnor’s authority for seeing me, and he knows what you have told me?’

‘Yes.’

‘Very well.’ He got up stiffly and put down the unfinished sandwich. ‘You can tell Radnor that I agree to an investigation being made, and I think I can vouch for my colleagues agreeing. You’ll want to start at once, I suppose.’

I nodded.

‘The usual terms?’

‘I don’t know,’ I said. ‘Perhaps you would get on to Mr Radnor about that.’

As I didn’t know what the usual terms were, I didn’t want to discuss them.

‘Yes, all right. And Sid… it’s understood that there is to be no leak about this? We can’t afford to have Kraye slapping a libel or slander action on us.’

‘The agency is always discreet,’ I said, with an outward and an inward smile. Radnor was right. People paid for privacy. And why not?

The Racing Section was quiet when I went in next morning, mostly because Chico was out on an escort job. All the other heads were bent studiously over their desks, including Dolly’s.

She looked up and said with a sigh, ‘You’re late again.’ It was ten to ten. ‘The old man wants to see you.’

I made a face at her and retraced my way down the staircase. Joanie looked pointedly at her watch.

‘He’s been asking for you for half an hour.’

I knocked and went in. Radnor was sitting behind his desk, reading some papers, pencil in hand. He looked at me and frowned.

‘Why are you so late?’

‘I had a pain in me turn,’ I said flippantly.

‘Don’t be funny,’ he said sharply, and then, more reasonably, ‘Oh… I suppose you’re not being funny.’

‘No. But I’m sorry about being late.’ I wasn’t a bit sorry, however, that it had been noticed: before, no one would have said a thing if I hadn’t turned up all day.

‘How did you get on with Lord Hagbourne?’ Radnor asked. ‘Was he interested?’

‘Yes. He agreed to an investigation. I said he should discuss terms with you.’

‘I see.’ He flicked a switch on the small box on his desk. ‘Joanie, see if you can get hold of Lord Hagbourne. Try the London flat number first.’