Нил Стивенсон - Termination Shock

“How does that help us?”

“Historically, volcanic eruptions south of the equator are associated with stronger monsoons.”

It turned out that Daia had never heard of Vadan. Saskia could hardly blame her. She’d never have known any of this had Cornelia not made her aware. So they took a minute to explain the basics: it was a rocky isle off the remote Albanian coast, formerly an outpost of the Venetian Empire, later a Soviet chemical munitions factory, and—as of about a year ago—the site of a project to build a clone of Pina2bo. From Venice, Vadan lay about eight hundred kilometers to the southeast. Along with other attendees, Saskia was scheduled to visit the place for a conference in a few days.

“You people are full of surprises,” Daia mused. “Who knew that Albania was going to become a player?”

“North Macedonia?” Chiara guessed.

“You joke, but what’s to prevent it? Why shouldn’t North Macedonia build one, if Albania’s doing it?”

“Because they don’t need to. The effects spread out over a wide area,” Michiel reminded her, “so North Macedonia gets a free ride. What’s good for Albania is good for them, and everyone else downwind.”

“In this hemisphere, prevailing winds are from the west,” Daia pointed out. “Vadan’s in the wrong direction from Venice, is it not?”

“Yes, if all we cared about was cooling the weather here,” Michiel said. “Vadan won’t do that. Instead it will cool down Turkey, Syria, and Iraq—places that are in danger of becoming uninhabitable because of rising temperatures.”

“Just as Pina2bo has already made a measurable difference in Austin and Houston,” Chiara put in.

“Well, that gives me a hint as to how you financed Vadan,” Daia said.

This connection hadn’t occurred to Saskia. She’d vaguely assumed that Vadan was all financed by mysterious Venetian oligarchs. But the look on the faces of Michiel and Chiara made it clear Daia had guessed correctly.

“The benefit to Venice is . . . indirect,” Marco said. He’d been mostly quiet until now. Pau, his friend from Barcelona, hadn’t said a word; he was content to enjoy the food and the wine and proximity to Chiara. It was clear that these two were an item.

“Oh, I get it. Sea level,” Daia said. “So Venice’s existential threat from the sea creates a natural alliance between you and overheated Persian Gulf states lying downwind of this island of Vadan, which is otherwise just a Soviet-era toxic waste dump that is useless to Albania but desirable to Venice in beginning to reassemble her Adriatic sphere of influence. Strange bedfellows!”

Cornelia said, “Strange bedfellows have been a constant throughout all history.”

“It’s just that climate change moves the beds around?” Saskia added.

“To cool off this part of the world, you’d have to build one upwind,” Daia supposed. “In your neck of the woods, mevrouw ?”

“T.R. had his eye on some coal mines in the southeastern Netherlands,” Saskia said, “but the sonic booms could be heard across the border in Germany and it would have meant trouble with the neighbors. No, if people want to put sulfur into the stratosphere over Northern Europe, they’ll have to build special aeroplanes.”

“Back to the Punjab,” Daia said. “The Breadbasket. Maybe I should start calling it that, just to make the stakes clear. Where food comes from. The climate simulations—”

“Were based on a different scenario. Pina2bo only,” Cornelia said. “Not factoring in Vadan or Papua.”

“And what do the simulations say when those are factored in?”

Cornelia, never a great one for diplomacy, broke eye contact in a way that showed impatience, even irritation. Michiel, in his role as smoother-over, glided in like a soccer player moving to intercept a pass. “That is a little like asking, ‘What is the result of acupuncture?’ There is no one answer.”

“You lost me there.”

“I used to have sinus headaches,” Michiel said. “Nothing helped. Miserable. I went to see an acupuncturist. She put needles in my face, as you might expect. But also in my hands and feet! How can this possibly work!? How can a needle between my toes make my sinuses feel better?” He shrugged. “It all has to do with the flow of energy around the system.”

“Which is never obvious,” Marco added.

“But acupuncturists have that all mapped out, you’re saying,” Daia said. “We can trust them.”

“In this case,” Michiel continued, “maybe there are three points where we have the needles: Pina2bo, Vadan, Papua. Maybe more later. What does that mean for the Punjab? There is no one answer. It depends on how they are used. How they are tweaked.”

“This is why we got involved with Vadan,” Marco said. “Maybe we find out that if Pina2bo shuts down for two months in the winter and Papua runs heavy for six weeks in the spring, the monsoons in the Breadbasket come out perfect.”

“But people starve in China,” Daia said.

“China might have something to say about that,” Cornelia said, in a tone of dry witticism.

Daia exchanged a look with Saskia, the import of which was Do you understand what she’s on about? I don’t.

“What do you mean, Cornelia?” Saskia asked.

“You could just as well point out that the United States could drop a bomb on Beijing, and hurt China! Why don’t they? Because China doesn’t like to get bombed and would retaliate.”

“Also,” Chiara put in, with a nervous glance at her aunt, “because it’s just stupid to hurt people for no reason!”

“That too. Now, imagine if it took six months to transport the bomb from America to Beijing, and you had to do it in the open.”

Daia nodded. “There can be no sneak attacks. No climate Pearl Harbors.”

“The Alastairs and the Eshmas of the world know their business too well.”

“But they are just voices crying in the wilderness,” Saskia said, “if they’re not backed up by some kind of muscle. China and India both have the big stick. What about, I don’t know, Iceland? Myanmar? Chad?”

“Venice?” Marco added.

“Catalunya!” said Pau.

“All that boils down to,” Cornelia said, “is that strong countries are strong and weak countries are weak. Which was true before.” She picked up her phone and began shuffling through pictures. “You know, on the boat trip I took last year, we passed through the Suez Canal. The Bab el Mandeb. The Malacca Strait. All famous choke points to the navigation of the seas. People have been fighting wars over those places for hundreds of years. And when they are not fighting wars they are playing geopolitical chess games around who will control those ‘acupuncture points.’ This is the same. It’s just that some places that most people have never heard of are going to become the Suez Canals of the future. And the great and small powers of the world will have to mark them out on their chessboards and maybe even prepare for conflict. But if you suppose any of that is new, you don’t know history.”

VADAN

Though he was not a licensed pilot, Michiel belonged to that class of people who spent a lot of time messing about in boats and planes and had some knowledge of how they worked. Saskia was old enough to remember when a man of that description might have been called a playboy. Among European royalty there was no lack of such. But no self-respecting man wanted to be called that anymore. Anyway, the Venetian didn’t have a job per se, or any fixed slate of obligations relating to work or family. When it came time for Saskia to head for Vadan, Michiel asked if he might join her in the co-pilot’s seat, and she said yes without hesitation. He was good company to be sure. And though she wouldn’t have trusted him to take the Beaver off or land it, he could manage it in level flight when she needed the occasional break.