Carroll Quigley - Tragedy and Hope - A History of the World in Our Time

Naturally, the influence of bankers over governments during the age of financial capitalism (roughly 1850-1931) was not something about which anyone talked freely, but it has been admitted frequently enough by those on the inside, especially in England. In 1852 Gladstone, chancellor of the Exchequer, declared, “The hinge of the whole situation was this: the government itself was not to be a substantive power in matters of Finance, but was to leave the Money Power supreme and unquestioned.” On September 26, 1921, The Financial Times wrote, “Half a dozen men at the top of the Big Five Banks could upset the whole fabric of government finance by refraining from renewing Treasury Bills.” In 1924 Sir Drummond Fraser, vice-president of the Institute of Bankers, stated, “The Governor of the Bank of England must be the autocrat who dictates the terms upon which alone the Government can obtain borrowed money.”

In addition to their power over government based on government financing and personal influence, bankers could steer governments in ways they wished them to go by other pressures. Since most government officials felt ignorant of finance, they sought advice from bankers whom they considered to be experts in the field. The history of the last century shows, as we shall see later, that the advice given to governments by bankers, like the advice they gave to industrialists, was consistently good for bankers, but was often disastrous for governments, businessmen, and the people generally. Such advice could be enforced if necessary by manipulation of exchanges, gold flows, discount rates, and even levels of business activity. Thus Morgan dominated Cleveland’s second administration by gold withdrawals, and in 1936-1938 French foreign exchange manipulators paralyzed the Popular Front governments. As we shall see, the powers of these international bankers reached their peak in the last decade of their supremacy, 1919-1931, when Montagu Norman and J. P. Morgan dominated not only the financial world but international relations and other matters as well. On November 11, 1927, the Wall Street Journal called Mr. Norman “the currency dictator of Europe.” This was admitted by Mr. Norman himself before the Court of the Bank on March 21, 1930, and before the Macmillan Committee of the House of Commons five days later. On one occasion, just before international financial capitalism ran, at full speed, on the rocks which sank it, Mr. Norman is reported to have said, “I hold the hegemony of the world.” At the time, some Englishmen spoke of “the second Norman Conquest of England” in reference to the fact that Norman’s brother was head of the British Broadcasting Corporation. It might be added that Governor Norman rarely acted in major world problems without consulting with J. P. Morgan’s representatives, and as a consequence he was one of the most widely traveled men of his day.

This conflict of interests between bankers and industrialists has resulted in most European countries in the subordination of the former either to the latter or to the government (after 1931). This subordination was accomplished by the adoption of “unorthodox financial policies”— that is, financial policies not in accordance with the short-run interests of bankers. This shift by which bankers were made subordinate reflected a fundamental development in modern economic history—a development which can be described as the growth from financial capitalism to monopoly capitalism. This took place in Germany earlier than in any other country and was well under way by 1926. It came in Britain only after 1931 and in Italy only in 1934. It did not occur in France to a comparable extent at all, and this explains the economic weakness of France in 1938-1940 to a considerable degree.

International Financial Practices

The financial principals which apply to the relationships between different countries are an expansion of those which apply within a single country. When goods are exchanged between countries, they must be paid for by commodities or gold. They cannot be paid for by the notes, certificates, and checks of the purchaser’s country, since these are of value only in the country of issue. To avoid shipment of gold with every purchase, bills of exchange are used. These are claims against a person in another country which are sold to a person in the same country. The latter will buy such a claim if he wants to satisfy a claim against himself held by a person in the other country. He can satisfy such a claim by sending to his creditor in the other country the claim which he has bought against another person in that other country, and let his creditor use that claim to satisfy his own claim. Thus, instead of importers in one country sending money to exporters in another country, importers in one country pay their debts to exporters in their own country, and their creditors in the other country receive payment for the goods they have exported from importers in their own country. Thus, payment for goods in an international trade is made by merging single transactions involving two persons into double transactions involving four persons. In many cases, payment is made by involving a multitude of transactions, frequently in several different countries. These transactions were carried on in the so-called foreign-exchange market. An exporter of goods sold bills of exchange into that market and thus drew out of it money in his own country’s units. An importer bought such bills of exchange to send to his creditor, and thus he put his own country’s monetary units into the market. Since the bills available in any market were drawn in the monetary units of many different foreign countries, there arose exchange relationships between the amounts of money available in the country’s own units (put there by importers) and the variety of bills drawn in foreign moneys and put into the market by exporters. The supply and demand for bills (or money) of any country in terms of the supply and demand of the country’s own money available in the foreign-exchange market determined the value of the other countries’ moneys in relation to domestic money. These values could fluctuate—widely for countries not on the gold standard, but only narrowly (as we shall see) for those on gold.

Under normal conditions a foreign-exchange market served to pay for goods and services- of foreigners without any international shipment of money (gold). It also acted as a regulator of international trade. If the imports of any country steadily exceeded exports to another country, more importers would be in the market offering domestic money for bills of exchange drawn in the money of their foreign creditor. There thus would be an increased supply of domestic money and an increased demand for that foreign money. As a result, importers would have to offer more of their money for these foreign bills, and the value of domestic money would fall, while the value of the foreign money would rise in the foreign-exchange market. This rise (or fall) on a gold relationship would be measured in terms of “par” (the exact gold content equivalent of the two currencies).

As the value of the domestic currency sagged below par in relationship to that of some foreign currency, domestic exporters to that foreign country will increase their activities, because when they receive payment in the form of a bill of exchange they can sell it for more of their own currency than they usually expect and can thus increase their profits. A surplus of imports, by lowering the foreign-exchange value of the importing country’s money, will lead eventually to an increase in exports which, by providing more bills of exchange, will tend to restore the relationship of the moneys back toward par. Such a restoration of parity in foreign exchange will reflect a restoration of balance in international obligations, and this in turn will reflect a restored balance in the exchange of goods and services between the two countries. This means, under normal conditions, that a trade disequilibrium will create trade conditions which will tend to restore trade equilibrium.