Bruce Mesquita - Principles of International Politics

5th Edition

Principles of

INTERNATIONAL

POLITICS

To the memory of Abraham and Clara Bueno de Mesquita, A. F. K. Organski, William H. Riker, and Robert Jackman. They were master mentors and exemplars of lives well lived. They taught me to reflect on how our world works for which I am forever in their debt. Though I can no longer turn to them for counsel, still I listen for their whispers on the wind.

5th Edition

Bruce Bueno de Mesquita

Principles of

INTERNATIONAL

POLITICS

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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce, 1946-

Principles of international politics / Bruce Bueno de Mesquita. — 5th ed.

p. cm.

Includes bibliographical references and index.

ISBN 978-1-4522-0298-3 (pbk.)

1. International relations. I. Title.

JZ1242.B84 2014

327.101—dc23 2012038576

This book is printed on acid-free paper.

12 13 14 15 16 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

Brief Contents

Maps, Tables, and Figures

Preface

About the Author

SECTION I. FOUNDATIONS

Introduction

1. Evaluating Arguments about International Politics

2. The Strategic Perspective: When Foreign Policy Collides with Domestic Politics

3. Tools for Analyzing International Affairs

4. An Introduction to Game Theory

SECTION II. WAR

5. Why War? The Big Picture

6. Domestic Theories of War

SECTION III. PEACE

7. How International Organizations Work or Don’t Work

8. Global Warming: Designing a Solution

9. Human Rights, International Law, and Norms

10. Free Trade or Fair: The Domestic Politics of Tariffs

11. Globalization: International Winners and Losers

SECTION IV. WORLD ORDER

12. Foreign Aid, Poverty, and Revolution

13. Can Terrorism Be Rational?

14. A Democratic World Order: Peace without Democratization

Appendix. Modern Political Economic History and International Politics

Bibliography

Glossary of Key Terms

Photo Credits

Citations of Key Authors

Index

Detailed Contents

Maps, Tables, and Figures

Preface

About the Author

SECTION I. FOUNDATIONS

Introduction

Domestic Politics Shape International Politics

Policy and Rationality

Is There a National Interest?

Arrow and Social—National—Welfare

This Book and Important Alternative Points of View

Neorealism

Liberalism

Constructivism

A First Look at the Strategic Perspective

The Book’s Plan

Wrap-Up

Exercises

Suggested Readings

1. Evaluating Arguments about International Politics

What Is a Theory?

Constructing Theories

Judging Theories

The Importance of Logical Consistency

Truth and Falsity in Assumptions

The First Principle of Wing Walking

The Case Study Method and Testing Theories

A Standard for Comparing Theories

The Scientific Method

When a Theory Is Wrong

Scientific Theories Must Be Falsifiable

Practical Uses of Theories

Summary

2. The Strategic Perspective: When Foreign Policy Collides with Domestic Politics

International Politics: Domestic Politics with a Twist

The Afghan Taliban’s Problem in 2001

The Israeli Prime Minister’s Problem

Who and What to Study in International Affairs

The Strategic Perspective

Domestic Theories of International Affairs: A First Look

Selectorate Theory

Public and Private Goods: Who Gets Rewarded as W and S Change?

The Value of Being Needed When W/S Is Small

The Value of Being Needed When W/S Is Large

The Loyalty Norm ( W/S ) and Conventional Regime Types

Leader Survival

Summary

3. Tools for Analyzing International Affairs

The Example: North Korea’s Nuclear Policy

The Median Voter Theorem: A Spatial Model

Assumption 1: Unidimensionality

Assumption 2: Single-Peaked Preferences

Assumption 3: Majority Rule

Win Sets: The Median Voter and Issue Linkage

Expected Utility

Computing Expected Utilities

Probability

Combining Probability, Costs, and Benefits

Summary

4. An Introduction to Game Theory

Prisoner’s Dilemma: Illustrating a Simple Game

Simple Games with Multiple Equilibria

A Simple North Korea-US Nuclear Game: An Extensive Form Game

Subgame Perfection and Backward Induction

Counterfactual Reasoning

Solving the North Korea-US Game with Uncertainty

Summary

SECTION II. WAR

5. Why War? The Big Picture

War, Clarity, and Uncertainty

Seeking Compromise When a Dispute Is about an Indivisible Good: Winner-Takes-All

War, Compromise, and Uncertainty

War, Compromise, and Commitment Problems

Realist Theories of War

How Well Does Neorealism Do in Explaining War and Instability?

Bipolarity and Stability

Neorealism’s Bipolarity Hypothesis Does Not Follow from the Theory’s Assumptions

Bipolarity and Stability: A Second Look

History and Neorealist Empirical Claims

Other Neorealist Hypotheses and the Historical Record

The Survival of Essential and Inessential States

Balance of Power and Neorealism

The Power Transition: A Structural Alternative to Neorealism

Examples of International Rules and Norms

Dissatisfaction, the Status Quo, and War

Summary

6. Domestic Theories of War

The Domestic Politics of International Crises

When Might War Be Ex-Post Efficient: Thatcher and the Falkland Islands War

Audience Costs

Solving without Audience Costs

Solving with Audience Costs