Larry Bond - Shattered Trident

“What about introducing false data, altering their identification?” Shi asked.

Xi shook his head. “Hostile naval intelligence would be quick to pounce on a ship that suddenly appeared in the same place a tanker disappeared. General Bao’s people in the cyber warfare section are investigating ways to switch two ships’ identities, but it’s not trivial.”

“Then should we be escorting our tankers?” Wen Feng, the minister of defense, asked Admiral Wei. He was careful to include General Su, the chief of the General Staff and Wei’s superior, in his question, but Su deferred to the admiral. Wei was the expert.

The admiral sighed. “It’s the obvious counter to a submarine campaign, but it would mean deploying escorts to many commercial ports, then waiting for enough merchants, or in this case tankers, to arrive before sailing. Once they have been convoyed across the danger area, the escort group must either return to the first port or exchange roles with another group that takes its place.”

Looking around the room, Wei saw everyone nodding understanding, including General Su. Wei continued, “It’s resource-intensive, requiring large numbers of escort vessels—numbers we currently lack. It would also reduce oil imports by as much as twenty-five percent because of the delays inherent in the convoy system. And that’s assuming no more ships are lost.”

Wei paused for a moment, then added, “Of course, if we were to begin convoying, those escorts would have to be taken away from our upcoming ‘exercise.’” Even in this supposedly secure area, Wei was circumspect. “We would probably have to cancel it altogether.”

The council’s expressions at that suggestion ranged from simple frowns, to shock, to near anger.

General Shi, listening to Wei’s explanation, turned back to Xi. “Colonel, I apologize. Our opponents are more than clever. They know our plans and present us with an unpleasant choice.”

“We have taken some steps,” Wei continued. “Patrol aircraft are flying along the routes of the heaviest shipping. It’s impossible to be everywhere at once, but they can react more quickly to news of a sinking than surface ships, and hopefully catch a submarine after an attack. Even if they can’t sink it, they can lay sonobuoys and possibly record its acoustic signature.”

“So we can’t prevent them from robbing another bank, but we may, with luck, be able to get the criminals’ license number as they speed away.” General Ye of the logistics department didn’t sound pleased.

“Confirming their identity is exactly what we need, General.” President Chen Dao had been silent since the start of Xi’s briefing in the operations room. Everyone turned to listen. “Economists on my staff say that on average, it takes a large tanker a day to meet China’s oil import needs. Thus, we’ve lost over twelve days’ supply in the past thirty-six hours,” he swept everyone in the room with his gaze, “without a hint of how to stop it. This will mean drawing even more heavily on our strategic reserves.”

Chen stood and moved toward the front of the room. Xi quickly stepped aside and sat down in an out-of-the-way corner. “Our enemies have correctly identified and struck at our greatest weakness. This does not change our needs. It highlights them. The ‘exercise’ will proceed with all possible speed. Its success will remove our vulnerability. It will also give our enemies something else to think about.

“China is strong enough to endure this attack, even if it grows worse. I will tell our economic planners to prepare for additional losses, so we can follow our chosen path without distraction.

“Colonel Xi, thank you for your hard work. Redouble your efforts to identify our antagonists. Also, inform General Bao that I wish to see him immediately. I have several questions for him.

“General Su, at this time we may not be able to demonstrate that Vietnam is behind this, but we must have a plan in place when their culpability can be proved. Develop one that inflicts punishing damage on their economy and armed forces, particularly their submarine base. However, do not use any of the units needed for the ‘exercise.’” Su nodded, but looked worried.

“Admiral Wei, determine if there is any way to speed up the timetable for the exercise. The sooner we consolidate our position, the better. Have a report ready by the end of the day.”

After Chen left, the commission members headed back aboveground. Wei at least felt hopeful. They had a plan, and he had something useful to do.

31 August 2016

USS North Dakota

Off Hainan Island, South China Sea

Jerry sat in the wardroom, fidgeting, fighting the urge to go to the control room. The troops had seen his disagreement with Thigpen, and had heard about his dressing-down by Commodore Simonis. Although he’d done his best to stay positive, he was still frustrated. The crew picked up that vibe and their tension rose.

Bernie Thigpen poked his head in. Seeing that the wardroom was empty except for the captain, he came through the door, and after pouring a cup of coffee, sat down near Jerry. He wasn’t near enough to crowd his skipper, but close enough to show something was on his mind.

“What’s the latest scuttlebutt, XO?”

“A lot of the crew is wondering what we’re up to out here. One of the snipes described it as, ‘All the risks of combat but none of the laughs.’ A lot of them also think the Vietnamese are nuts starting a war with the Chinese.”

“What do you think, XO?”

Thigpen sighed. “I’m worried about what happens when you decide to stretch our orders again.”

He paused, waiting for a reaction, but Jerry didn’t respond immediately. Thigpen continued, “Nobody on this boat has ever done this before. That makes everyone nervous, me included, and the last thing the crew needs on top of the external situation is a disconnect between the CO and the XO.”

“Do you think I was wrong?” Jerry kept his tone even and nonconfrontational. He wanted a discussion, not an argument.

“It isn’t about being right or wrong. You’re the skipper, and it’s your call, but I think you violated the spirit, if not the letter of our orders. I understand why you did it, and I’m glad it worked. I like it when nobody dies, especially us. But the commodore was seriously pissed, which confirms my suspicion that the brass wants us to keep well clear.”

After a few moments, Jerry nodded. “You’re right, of course. I thought we could walk right up to the line without crossing it. In hindsight, though, I did cross the line, and you were right to point it out. But I can’t promise that something else like it won’t happen in the future.”

Thigpen made a face. “Where does that leave me, Skipper? It’s my job to warn you at times like that, but we can’t be seen disagreeing by the crew, especially now.”

“Also right,” Jerry answered. “Do you believe me when I say I’m listening when you raise those objections? That I’ll always act in the best interests of the mission and the boat?”

“Of course,” Thigpen answered almost automatically. Then he added firmly, “No doubts, Skipper.”

Jerry smiled. “Good. Doubts are my job. Since my orders have been ‘clarified’ by the commodore, I’ll do my best to follow them precisely. But you’re also right that this is a unique situation. If I have to leave our guidance behind, I’ll listen hard to your counsel, but it’s always going to be my decision.”

“And I’ll do my best to implement it,” Thigpen confirmed.

“If you want to take notes, or keep a separate log, I understand. If the fertilizer starts flying because of something I did, I’ll do my best to keep it away from you.”