Larry Bond - Shattered Trident

“For the most part, the ‘fighting’ over the Spratlys has been done with words and the occasional raid to raise a flag on a claimed, but unmanned reef. However, the harassment of oil exploration ships, oceanographic research ships, and fishing vessels has been steadily increasing. In 2011, China and Vietnam started holding regular naval exercises in the Spratly Islands, often with live-fire drills. This has led to both nations beefing up the defenses of their outposts. Other South China Sea littoral nations followed suit.

“The situation really started to go downhill in late 2014 when a Vietnamese warship collided with, and sank, a Chinese fishing vessel. The nationalistic furor that followed this incident led to the Chinese Communist Party’s announcement in the spring of 2015 that the Spratly Islands were a ‘core national interest’ to China. The shockwaves from that declaration sent every nation in the region to a higher state of alert.”

This was huge. Between the upgrading of outpost defenses and the strong political rhetoric, the entire South China Sea was now a powder keg. All that was needed for war was for someone to light the fuze, something Jerry guessed had already happened.

“Eleven days ago, the Chinese aircraft carrier Liaoning triggered a bottom influence mine as she departed Yalong Bay. The damage was severe, rendering her starboard propulsion shafts and rudder useless, and causing significant shock damage to her engine rooms. The ship managed to get back to the pier, but it took the crew hours to finally contain the flooding. An official press release stated that Liaoning had suffered an unspecified engineering casualty.

“Exhaustive analysis by the intelligence community reveals there is only one possible mining platform—a Vietnamese Kilo-class submarine.”

Jerry was as awestruck as the others by Patterson’s claim. He simply could not comprehend why Vietnam would even consider attacking her much larger, and considerably more powerful neighbor. It certainly did much to explain the attack on the merchant.

“Four days ago a Type 093 SSN torpedoed the Vietnamese merchant vessel Vinaship Sea . Commander Mitchell’s submarine witnessed the attack and his report is in your briefing binders.”

All eyes seemed to focus on Jerry as Patterson continued speaking. Pascovich nudged him, his facial expression begging for details. Jerry mouthed the word, “Later.”

“In his report, Commander Mitchell’s noted a large secondary explosion after the Vinaship Sea was torpedoed. Such a strong blast was inconsistent with her listed cargo of coal. In addition, he also reported that the ship was significantly off course for her claimed destination.” Patterson smiled as she advanced the slide.

“Your observations were correct, Jerry. The merchant ship was actually heading toward the Vietnamese-held island of Southwest Cay in the northern Spratlys. Her cargo, based on COMINT information, was advanced surface-to-air missile systems, radars, anti-aircraft artillery, munitions, food, and fuel for the garrison—enough for the defenders to hold out for several weeks.”

Jerry heard Pascovich whistle softly and say, “Hoollyy shit!”

“In conclusion,” said Patterson, highlighting the bullets with her laser pointer, “both sides have taken shots at each other. However, it is significant to note that only submarines have been used to date. And while we believe the likelihood for continued hostilities is high, we simply don’t understand the nature of this conflict. What triggered the Vietnamese attack? Is the upcoming PLAN exercise part of the puzzle? There are just too many unknowns right now. This is why the president is asking for your help. He needs more information if he is to respond appropriately to this crisis. The goal is to defuse it diplomatically; hopefully before a full-scale war starts. Are there any questions?”

There were plenty. Dr. Patterson went over many of the possible causes: the Chinese diversion of river water from Vietnam, significantly reducing the latter’s rice crops. There were arguments over the rights to fishing grounds, and of course, China’s ever-growing need for oil. The bottom line, as Jerry saw it, be it water, fish, or oil, China needed more resources to support its population and economy. In the past, they’d relied on diplomacy, and occasional bullying, to get their way. Could their need be so great that they had to up the ante?

Jerry asked, “Dr. Patterson, is there any evidence of China facing some sort of major economic problem?”

“Not that we know of, Jerry. They’ve had problems, but have weathered them, possibly better than we have.”

“Dr. Patterson,” interrupted Halsey. “In my opinion, there has to be a link between the events you discussed and the exercise. Is there a chance that the Chinese are using the exercise to hide an attack?”

“There’s always a possibility, Commander Halsey. However, the Chinese have been far more open about this exercise because of its magnitude and location. Based on past exercises, with the exception of its size, there doesn’t appear to be anything unusual about this one. But that’s why you and Jerry were assigned to monitor the exercise, to see if their actions match their words.”

“Are you suggesting that the Vietnamese are just being paranoid?” pushed Halsey.

“I’m not suggesting anything of the sort,” Patterson responded tersely. “It is certainly a possibility that the Vietnamese could view the exercise as a significant threat. Whether or not that perception is real or imaginary, I can’t say. But Vietnam would only act if it felt it had no other option, which inevitably leads back to the assumption of a Chinese first strike. We’ve looked into this premise hard, and we just can’t find a good motivation for China to want to go to war. The repercussions would be huge, the damage to their economy significant.”

“And yet, the Vietnamese have done poked the dragon in the eye,” remarked Dobson sarcastically. “The Vietnamese may be paranoid, but they aren’t stupid. Something is missing from this picture.”

“Correct, Captain, and it’s your job to find out,” boomed Simonis. “Gentlemen, you each have detailed orders for your boat in your binder. But it comes down to this. You are to probe, watch, and report any movements of PLAN and Vietnamese naval vessels, and in particular submarines. Collect signals intelligence in your respective areas, with an emphasis on command and control communications. And you are to remain undetected at all times.”

“Captains, I must emphasize the need for absolute stealth on this mission,” echoed Burroughs as he rose. “For now, it appears that neither side is aware that we know and understand the significance of these events. That’s an advantage we need to retain. Do your snooping, learn what you can, but use your good judgment when it comes to communicating your findings. I know I’m preaching to the choir, but this comes from high up the chain. You cannot be detected. Clear?”

“Yes, sir!” replied the four skippers.

Simonis walked up to the podium and brought up another slide with a chart of the Chinese coastline. “Your patrol areas are as follows. North Dakota will position herself off Hainan Island, monitoring the naval bases at Yulin and Yalong Bay. Commander Mitchell, you’ll send one of your reconnaissance UUVs to the west to monitor the approaches from the Vietnamese submarine base at Nha Trang.”

“Understood, sir,” Jerry replied as he wrote down some notes. The orders would have all the details, but he needed a few cryptic reminders to make sure he covered the basics when he briefed Thigpen.

The commodore continued. Santa Fe would be stationed off Zhanjiang, the South Sea Fleet’s main port. Texas was to watch Guangzhou, as well as picking up any ships coming down from the East Sea Fleet. Oklahoma City was to be placed off Ningbo, the East Sea Fleet’s main base. She was to provide a heads-up for any ships coming from either the East or North Sea Fleets and heading down the coast. It was a lot of real estate for four submarines to cover, but Jerry approved of the deployment.