Mark Mobius - The Inflation Myth and the Wonderful World of Deflation

1 Cover

2 PREFACE

3 INTRODUCTION

4 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

5 ABOUT THE AUTHOR

6 1 History and Inflation History as Inflation Importance of Inflation Numbers The Long Coffin Marco Polo and Money Gold and Silver Coins Money and Trust The Urge to Debase Rome's Debasement England's Debasement Shells and Money

7 2 The Critical Importance of Inflation Numbers Making Important Policy Decisions on Inflation Data International Interest in Inflation The Influential Measure Impact on Individual Lives The Popularity of Inflation Numbers India Stops Futures Trading To Influence Inflation China’s Efforts To Influence The CPI Numbers The Effect of Mexican Tomatoes On Inflation Venezuela Attempts To Rein In Inflation Through A Cryptocurrency Fed Up Inflation Numbers Knock‐on Effect Wage indexing When Central Bank Actions Fail To Influence Inflation Investment Decisions and Inflation Numbers Bank Decisions

8 3 What is Inflation? What the Experts Say Defining Inflation Inflation as a Worldwide Disaster

9 4 What is Hyperinflation? What the Experts Say Hyperinflations around the World The German Hyperinflation Experience Yugoslavia: Printing Money To Pay Government Debt Legalized Looting In Zimbabwe Printing 30 Tons of Zairean Banknotes

10 5 Money Supply and InflationInflation as a Monetary Phenomenon What Is The Money Supply? Measuring Money Supply Money Creation through Fractional‐Reserve Banking The Money Illusion Credit Is Money The Collapse of Paper Money Demise of the Dollar The Gold Standard The Universe of Cryptocurrencies

11 6 Measuring Inflation Why You Can't Trust the Inflation Numbers The History of Measuring Inflation Building the Index Gin and Inflation Measurement The Boskin Commission US GDP Numbers Questioned What Are People REALLY Buying? The Changing Time and Place Bias Market‐Basket Bias Data Gathering Difficulties Complexity Data Gathering Urban–Rural Inflation Differences In China Currency Confusion – The Tenge Pakistan Statistics Concerns China’s Suspect Statistics UK Inflation Index Credibility India – Data Gathering Difficulties The Brazil Experience Urban–Rural Inflation Differences In China Inflation Differences Within Turkey Malaysia Concerns South Africans Skeptical Too Income Differences What Statistics Fail to Measure

12 7 Controlling and Manipulating InflationGovernments’ Vested Interest Central Banks Control Attempts The Phillips Curve The Taylor Rule The Fisher Effect Inflation Targeting The Magic 2% The Low Inflation Trap Argentina: Lies, Damned Lies Brazil Anti‐Inflation Efforts Chinese Government Efforts to Control Inflation Philippines Data Control Venezuela – Eliminating a Bill India Control Efforts Korea: Consumer Pressure

13 8 The Wonderful World of Deflation What the Experts Say: The Trend towards Lower Prices and Rising Incomes Food and Gold Productivity and Deflation Technology and Deflation Deflation is Next Door – Singapore and Malaysia Prices Deflating the World's Fair Linking Income and Costs Deflation Statistics US Deflation Singapore Deflation Japan Deflation India Deflation China Deflation

14 9 Conclusions

15 REFERENCES

16 INDEX

17 End User License Agreement

1 Chapter 8Table 8.1 Malaysia and Singapore Price Difference, May 2018Table 8.2 US Percent Changes of Product Prices 1930 to 2017Table 8.3 US Percent Changes of Average Monthly Wage Received by Regular Empl...Table 8.4 Singapore: Percent Changes of Product Prices in Singapore 2001 to 2...Table 8.5 Singapore: Percent Changes of Average Monthly Wages Received by Reg...Table 8.6 Percent Changes of Product Prices 1963 to 2017Table 8.7 Japan: Percentage Changes of Monthly Contractual Cash Earnings by O...Table 8.8 India Percentage Change in Product Prices 1960 to 2010 (All India, ...Table 8.9 India Percentage Changes of Average Monthly Wage/Salary Earnings Re...Table 8.10 China: Percentage Changes of Product Prices 1995 to 2012Table 8.11 China: Percentage Changes of Average Monthly Wages Received by Reg...

1 Chapter 8Figure 8.1 FAO Food Price Index in Gold (2002–04=100) Monthly from January 2...Figure 8.2 Consumer Prices for Matching Products: Online vs. OfflineFigure 8.3 Airbnb Guest Arrivals & Active Listings by Hosts 5MM Global Activ...Figure 8.4 Airbnb vs. Hotel: Average Room Price per NightFigure 8.5 UberX/POOL vs. Personal Car: Weekly Commute Costs in the Five Lar...

1 Cover

2 Table of Contents

3 Begin Reading

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By Mark Mobius