Franco Taroni - Statistics and the Evaluation of Evidence for Forensic Scientists

1 Chapter 2Figure 2.1 Basic connections in Bayesian networks: (a) serial, (b) convergin...Figure 2.2 Simple two‐node Bayesian network for a proposition , relating to...Figure 2.3 Bayes' network for a serial connection for a RM in a DNA profile,...Figure 2.4 Bayesian decision network for analysing the problem of deciding b...

2 Chapter 4Figure 4.1 Prior density function with , , (dotted line), likelihood f...Figure 4.2 probability interval for a beta distributed random variable. (a...Figure 4.3 Likelihood function for the proportion of people of blood group...Figure 4.4 Probabilistic upper bounds for the proportion of occurrences ...Figure 4.5 Posterior distribution of the sensitivity .Figure 4.6 Histogram of the frequency of sampled values of the probability...Figure 4.7 Beta prior distribution over for .Figure 4.8 The prior probability that the proportion of units in a consi...Figure 4.9 The posterior probability that the proportion of units in a c...Figure 4.10 A Bayesian network for inference about a proportion of a large c...Figure 4.11 A Bayesian network for inference about a large consignment of di...Figure 4.12 A Bayesian network for inference about a proportion of a small c...Figure 4.13 A Bayesian network for inference about a small consignment of di...Figure 4.14 Posterior mean of alcohol concentration (g/kg) as a function o...Figure 4.15 The probability that the total quantity of drugs (in grams) in...Figure 4.16 The probability that the total quantity of drugs (in grams) in...Figure 4.17 (a) Quadratic loss function in (4.47) with and ; (b) Piecewis...Figure 4.18 Collapsed representation of an influence diagram for deciding ab...Figure 4.19 Partially expanded representation of the influence diagram in Fi...

3 Chapter 5Figure 5.1 Four‐node network for the evaluation of evidence given offence le...Figure 5.2 Generic Bayesian network structures for dissonant and harmonious ...

4 Chapter 6Figure 6.1 Variation in logarithm of the value of evidence with variation in...Figure 6.2 Bayesian network fragments for the problem of missing evidence, r...

5 Chapter 7Figure 7.1 Refractive index measurements from 2269 fragments of float glass ...Figure 7.2 Medullary width (in microns) of 220 cat hairs (Source: Based on P...Figure 7.3 Examples of kernel density estimates showing individual kernels. ...Figure 7.4 Medullary widths, in microns, of cat hairs (Source: Based on Peab...Figure 7.5 Medullary widths, in microns, of cat hairs (Source: Based on Peab...Figure 7.6 Kernel density estimate with smoothing parameter 0.025 of refract...Figure 7.7 Kernel density estimate with smoothing parameter 0.25 of refracti...Figure 7.8 (a) EtG concentrations measured in the hair of 14 male low‐risk d...Figure 7.9 Histogram and kernel density estimate for 279 within‐group distan...Figure 7.10 Histogram and kernel density estimate for 2496 between‐group dis...

6 Chapter 8Figure 8.1 Bump function for the probability of misleading evidence for ...Figure 8.2 Histograms of values in an artificial set of values. The area...Figure 8.3 Tippett plots of a validation set of values artificially genera...Figure 8.4 Probability density functions of likelihood ratios: (a) unrelated...Figure 8.5 Histograms of log likelihood ratios: (a) unrelated versus full si...Figure 8.6 Histograms of log likelihood ratios: (a) unrelated versus full si...Figure 8.7 DET curves: (a) unrelated versus full siblings, (b) half‐siblings...Figure 8.8 Tippett plots: (a) unrelated versus full siblings, (b) half‐sibli...Figure 8.9 ECE plots: (a) unrelated versus full siblings; (b) half‐siblings ...