– 3.5:1: This represents the high-end bound of OIF and OEF support.
We chose the 2.5:1 support ratiofor our baseline estimate to support WMD-E operations in the DPRK, and show the parametric variants of ratios higher or lower than this number.
Question 4
– Sensitivity of Force Requirements to Operational Environments and Support Ratios
The ground forcerequirements are presented as a function of the operating environment (Uncertain or Hostile, and level of threat) and the assumed support ratio (low, midlevel, or high), broken out by the different elements of the WMD-E mission force.
Ground force requirements for WMD-E operations in our illustrative DPRK case are presented in Figure 1.2.
Estimated forcesneeded for WMD-E operations could be…
Example:• 73,000 troops for an Uncertain environment – with a lower bound of 52,000 if significant contractor logistics support can be employed and an upper bound of 94,000 if all support must be provided by the U.S. military • 148,000 for an Uncertain/High Threat environment – with a lower bound of 113,000 with more contractor logistics support and an upper bound of 182,000 with all U.S. military support.
Since we thinkthat the environment is likely to be Hostileand that the intermediate levelof support will be needed in the DPRK, our best estimate is a requirement for 188,000 U.S. ground troops.
That estimate could decrease to 148,000 if the risk of attack from DPRK militaryremnants decreases.
It could increase to 273,000 if the environment worsens to become High Threat. It is also useful to recall that these estimates are for the WMD-Emission only – they do not include force requirements for other missions, such as humanitarian assistance.
These different security levels pertain to the disposition of the DPRK security forces and any insurgent forces that might rise up.
Question 5
5. Observations on the DPRK Case Study
As described in this case study, WMD-E operationsin the wake of a collapse of the DPRK.
1.What are the assumptionsdriving results?
– What does Your results suggest?
Answer
The WMD-E requirementis a nontraditional missionthat creates a need for forces in addition to those required for joint operations, the force requirements of which might already be quite large.
The key assumptionsdriving results are the following:
– • the number and sizes of the WMD sitesthat are to be searched, the time needed to clear each site, and the priority and urgency of clearing them
– • the degreeto which non-U.S. forces could or would be relied upon to service nuclear and nonnuclear sites
– • the ratio of supportto mission troops
– • the degree of hostilityin the operational environment, as well as the military threats WMD-E forces may face.
Our results suggestthat even in cases where relatively favorable assumptionsare made, the estimated U.S. forces required can still be quite substantial:
For example, in our DPRK base case, our estimate for the Uncertain environment – a relatively favorable environment for conducting WMD-E operations — requiredan estimated 73,000 troops,
while a more hostile operating environmentor more expansive
missionsrequired significantly more troops.
ActualWMD-E operations are likely to be far more challenging.
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Practical Speaking Training. Сrush the fear of public speaking
1. DRAW A CARTOON (Naval Admiral William McRaven`s addresses.)
https://youtu.be/pxBQLFLei70
What 1 lesson from this speech can you apply to your own life?
Directions:
Use the narrator’s descriptions to help you draw three Scenes and the characters.
– After you draw each scene, write what the characters talked or thought about.
– If the characters talk to each other, write their conversation in a speech bubble.
– Write a character’s thoughts about anything in a thought bubble.
Example: « If you want to change the world get over being a sugar cookie and keep moving forward.»
«There were many a student who just couldn’t accept the fact that all their effort was in vain… Those students didn’ t under-stand the purpose of the drill. You were never going to suc-ceed. You were never going to have a perfect uniform.»
As you brainstorm the story`s characters, think about which are their main
motivations. Which are their secondary ones?
Create your Speech.
The goal of this presentation is to show you how a speech success isn’t the re-sult of good luck, ability.
The speech success is simply a case of taking the steps required to introduce changes and bring revolution in every field, inspiration from your speech. How big your heart is.
Do you agree?
What were some of the main messages of this particular speech?
List the main points and themes.
– Oratory – What words or phrases helped to support the speech’s main pur-poses? In particular, which words or phrases evoked emotion, painted a strong image or are very descriptive. How do the words and phrases you’ve pointed out lend to (or distract from) the points being made?
– Emotion – What emotions do you believe Naval Admiral William McRaven was trying to evoke? Do you believe this was achieved? If so, what words in particular helped to convey emotion?
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