Terence Hines - Pseudoscience and the Paranormal

It is important to realize that, in one hundred years of parapsychological investigations, there has never been a single adequate demonstration of the reality of any psi phenomenon. Why, then, does the field of parapsychology continue to exist? Why has it not withered away, like the study of N rays and polywater? I think that there are two major, and not unrelated, reasons. First, especially since the early 1960s, parapsychology has acquired a following that is made up of people—most of them not active investigators and most with almost no scientific training—who accept the reality of psi not because of any empirical evidence, but simply because psi fits well with their view of what the world and reality ought to be like. This is a world in which the spiritual dominates over the scientific and rational; a world in which simply thinking good thoughts can make the world “right” again; a world in which what one feels to be true is, automatically and without effort, true; a world where there is no need to carefully consider evidence to arrive at the truth. At present, I suspect that this group is quite large and helps to support the enormous number of uncritical books, television programs, and newspaper articles about psi and other aspects of the paranormal. Thus, these topics are kept in the public eye. This, in turn, fuels the interest of the general public and helps to support parapsychological research, both in terms of funding and in terms of the publicity that is so rewarding to researchers in any field.

The second reason for the persistence of parapsychology as a discipline has to do with the type of logical arguments permitted within the field. The use of the nonfalsifiable hypothesis is permitted in parapsychology to a degree unheard of in any scientific discipline. To the extent that investigators accept this type of hypothesis, they will be immune to having their belief in psi disproved. No matter how many experiments fail to provide evidence for psi and no matter how good those experiments are, the nonfalsifiable hypothesis will always protect the belief. The investigator will thus persist in conducting experiment after experiment, even when none of them produces positive results. The nonfalsifiable hypothesis always permits, almost requires, the attribution of the experiments’ failures to something other than the nonexistence of psi. This attitude is epitomized in the quotation from Rogo (1986) earlier in this chapter regarding the reasons for Blackmore’s failure to find any evidence of psi in her numerous experiments. Rogo didn’t even consider the possibility that psi doesn’t exist. Rather, he put forth the totally untestable idea that Blackmore’s failure to find evidence of psi was due to her deeply hidden, unconscious motives. In any other area of scientific research, it would be impossible for anyone to seriously propose such an “explanation” for the failure to find a hypothesized effect. The type of reasoning so frequently used in parapsychology, reasoning that is nearly invulnerable to empirical disproof, is much more characteristic of religion than of science. Alcock (1985) has persuasively argued that for many, but certainly not all, parapsychologists, the search for psi has become an almost religious quest, a quest to dethrone materialistic science and reestablish the dominance of a spiritual approach to the world.

Many theories have been proposed by parapsychologists to explain how psi takes place. To skeptics, such theory building seems premature, as the phenomena to be explained by the theories have yet to be demonstrated convincingly. The theories cover a wide range of proposed mechanisms (see Rao 1978, for an excellent review). At one end of the spectrum, there are theories that implicitly accept the “transmission hypothesis” of psi, according to which information is actually transmitted during psi. Dobbs (1967, cited in Rao 1978) proposes the existence of particles with “imaginary” mass and energy called psitrons, which are emitted in great numbers by the brain. Dobbs is one of several theorists to use quantum mechanics to support parapsychology. Gardner (1981b) has reviewed the use of quantum mechanics in parapsychology. He finds it is often used incorrectly or to hide, in complex terminology, old nonfalsifiable hypotheses. Thus, for example, the fact that psychics can’t or won’t perform their feats in front of skeptics is attributed to the fact that skeptics’ “wills kept reducing wave packets the wrong way” (p. 69). This sort of conceptualization does not provide much substance for a theory of psi (Rae 1986).

Other bizarre theories have been proposed and have some popularity in parapsychology. These theories have to do with what is called synchronicity. This is a notion dreamed up by psychoanalyst Carl Jung in the 1950s (Jung and Pauli 1955). The idea is straightforward, if naive. According to synchronicity, there is no such thing as a coincidence. All “coincidences” are meaningful. Palmer (1978, 1982) and others (Rao 1978) have suggested that what they feel are adequate examples of psi may not be due to transmission of information, but may be examples of such “meaningful coincidences.” The changes in theoretical views of psi may be a result of the criticisms of earlier views. As we will see in the case of UFOs, proponents of pseudoscientific claims, when faced with effective criticisms, frequently adopt even more extreme hypotheses. As the information transmission hypothesis of psi becomes less and less tenable, some in the field, while accepting the demise of one theory, are unwilling to move toward the skeptical view that allegedly positive psi results were and are due to subtle biases and experimental design flaws. Rather, they gravitate toward increasingly bizarre explanations for why the results occur.

Finally, it is important to address the issue of belief. Why is the existence of ESP and related phenomena so widely accepted by the public—in spite of what is at best very poor evidence for its reality? One reason is that paranormal topics are constantly and uncritically discussed in the media, both print and electronic. Given the high visibility of paranormal topics in the media, it is natural for people to believe that there must be something to them. Another powerful factor influencing belief is the startling personal experiences that many people have. These convince them, on purely subjective grounds, that they have had an ESP experience and, therefore, that ESP is real. The constructive nature of memory and related cognitive illusions combine forces to convince people of the reality of ESP and related phenomena.

Greeley (1987) surveyed more than fourteen thousand American adults and found that 67 percent had “experienced ESP.” What type of experiences occur in everyday life that are classified as being due to ESP? Very commonly, they are hunches or dreams that seem to come true. The cognitive illusions that operate to make this type of precognitive experience seem so real were discussed in chapter 2. A similar experience more directly related to ESP is that of thinking of a friend that one has not heard from in some time. Shortly after one has thought about the individual, one receives a phone call, letter, or some other form of communication from or about the person. As we have seen, this can be a striking experience. Such occurrences are, of course, coincidences. But most people are quite poor at estimating the probabilities of events and using probabilistic information in decision making (Kahneman, Slovic, and Tversky 1982).

Gilovich, Vallone, and Tversky (1985) have demonstrated that people’s poor intuitive grasp of probabilities underlies a common belief about sports. This is the belief—held by players, coaches, and fans alike—in the “hot hand” or “streak shooting.” Gilovich, Vallone, and Tversky define this as the “belief that the performance of a player during a particular period is significantly better than expected on the basis of the player’s overall record” (pp. 295–96). In fact, an analysis of field goal performance of the Philadelphia 76ers during forty-eight 1980–81 home games revealed no departure from chance. Gilovich, Vallone, and Tversky also conducted a shooting experiment with members of the Cornell University basketball team. Although there was no actual nonchance streak shooting in the shots taken for the experiment, observers of the shooting believed the effect was present.