Terence Hines - Pseudoscience and the Paranormal

This is certainly a far cry from any truly specific prediction of fighter aircraft and atomic weapons!

Nostradamus’s greatest, and most specific, prediction is said to be his almost perfectly accurate naming of Adolf Hitler. In fact, the word Hister does occur in the prophecies three times. It is clear, however, that this in no way refers to Adolf Hitler. Hister is the Latin name of the lower Danube River. The translations of the three verses that contain the word Hister make it clear that Nostradamus was not accurately predicting Adolf Hitler’s rise and fall, for they are more or less gibberish:

Again, these are not the clear predictions claimed for Nostradamus by those more interested in selling sensational paperbacks and misleading television pseudodocumentaries than in correctly informing their readers and viewers.

Immediately following the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks on the United States, the Internet was alive with e-mails claiming that Nostradamus had predicted the destruction of the World Trade Center. Several different versions of the specific quatrain said to make this prediction were in circulation. But it was not written by him—it appeared on the Web page of a Canadian student, who wrote it in 1997 as an example of the style of Nostradamus’s quatrains. It was embellished after the fact to make it appear more specific to the World Trade Center.

While Nostradamus has been improperly credited with predicting numerous historical events, one such event is said to have been foreseen by many psychics: the sinking in April 1912 of the oceanliner Titanic after it struck an iceberg in the North Atlantic. A short novel, part of another novel, several short stories, and even several poems written in the period between 1890 and 1912 contain the theme of a great passenger liner sinking after it strikes an iceberg (Gardner 1986). Some of these stories contain what may seem to be impressive correspondences with what actually happened to the Titanic . For example, Morgan Robertson’s 1898 novel—reprinted in Gardner’s (1986) detailed analysis of the claim that the Titanic disaster was foreseen—was titled The Wreck of the Titan . The sinking of the Titan is similar in many respects to the actual sinking, years later, of the Titanic . Both the fictional and real ships, for example, sank with loss of many lives after striking an iceberg in the North Atlantic in April. Neither had adequate lifeboats.

But these correspondences are not due to any paranormal predictions. In the era of the great passenger liners, running into an iceberg at night was a constant danger. Recall that radar was then unknown. Further, an iceberg was just about the only thing that could sink such a ship, short of enemy action in war. Thus, if one were going to write a story about a large passenger liner sinking, an iceberg practically had to be involved. The requirement that the fictional ship strike an iceberg further constrained where and when the accident could take place. After all, a ship isn’t likely to run into any icebergs when sailing from Marseille to Rio de Janeiro in July.

Examining the predictions of twentieth-century psychics reveals a plethora of vague prophecies characterized by multiple outs and a large number of very specific predictions that are also very wrong. Further, psychics have been totally unable to predict any of the numerous unexpected major news stories of the last fifty years.

No psychic ability is required to make obvious predictions such as “there will be continued trouble in the Middle East during the year,” but psychics often claim after the fact that they made much more specific predictions. Almost no one, least of all the media that report these psychic wonders, ever bothers to check out their claims, which thus go unchallenged. In recent years, however, skeptics have begun to follow up psychics’ claims; the results show a consistent pattern of either outright failure or distortion of vague predictions.

It was a vague prediction, retroactively made much more specific, that launched the success of the late Jeane Dixon, probably the best-known psychic of her era. Dixon and her admirers claimed that she correctly predicted not only John E Kennedy’s 1960 election to the presidency but also his assassination (Montgomery 1965). Impressive, if it were true—but it’s not. Dixon’s actual prediction appeared in the May 13, 1956, Parade magazine. It stated, “As for the 1960 election, Mrs. Dixon thinks it will be dominated by labor and won by a Democrat. But he will be assassinated or die in office, although not necessarily in his first term.” Now that prediction covers a lot of ground. The portion about a Democrat winning the election would have about a 50 percent chance of coming true. There are numerous possible outcomes that would be consistent with the second portion of the prediction, regarding assassination or dying in office. The president, whose name is never mentioned, could be assassinated in his first or his second term. He could die during his first or second term. Dixon would undoubtedly have claimed a hit if Kennedy had had a serious illness during either the first or the second term, or if an assassination attempt—whether or not the president had been injured—had taken place during the first or second term. However, the coup de grace to Dixon’s claim to have foretold the Kennedy assassination is that in 1960 she predicted that “John F Kennedy would fail to win the presidency” (Tyler 1977).

Another way to make a prediction seem surprisingly accurate is to make the entire, specific prediction after the event has taken place and then try to con the public into believing that it was made before the event. A well-known and blatant example of this psychic technique took place in 1981 when Los Angeles psychic Tamara Rand claimed to have predicted the attempt on President Reagan’s life. Her “prediction” included the details that the assassin would have the initials “J. H.,” which John Hinkley did, and that the last name would be something like “Humley,” which is pretty close to Hinkley. She further “saw” that the president would be shot in the chest in a “hail of bullets,” and that the assassin would come from a wealthy family and have sandy hair. All of these descriptions are correct. She even got the time of the assassination right, saying it would take place in the last week of March or the first week of April 1981. The attempt actually took place on March 30, 1981. These predictions were said to have been made on a talk show taped on January 6, 1981, on KTNV-TV, Las Vegas.

Such astonishingly accurate predictions were impressive stuff, and ABC, NBC, and CNN all broadcast the videotape of the January 6 program on April 2, 1981, four days after the assassination attempt. Alas, these major news-gathering organizations made no attempt to verify the accuracy of Rand’s claims before broadcasting her videotaped “predictions.” In fact, the tape was a fake. Rand and KTNV talk show host Dick Maurice had conspired to produce the fake tape, which was actually filmed in the KTNV studios on March 31, the day after the assassination attempt (Frazier and Randi 1981–82). The hoax was exposed when Associated Press reporter Paul Simon, who was skeptical of the story, investigated and turned up the truth.