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См.: Leslie I. Why the Mona Lisa Stands Out // Intelligent Life. May/June, 2014. ‹ http://moreintelligentlife.com/content/ideas/ian-leslie/overexposed-works-art›.
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Ibid. P. 54, 55. [Там же. С. 48.]
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См.: List of World Records in Athletics // Wikipedia. ‹ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_world_records_in_athletics#Men› and ‹ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Athletics_record_progressions›.
Поскольку вероятность того, что при бросании монетки выпадет «орел», составляет 1/2, вероятность того, что это произойдет 20 раз подряд, определяется как (1/2) 20, что составляет 0,0000095367.
Mauboussin M. The Success Equation. Cambridge, MA: Harvard Business Review Press, 2012.
В обобщенном виде эти исследования представлены в публикации: Kahneman D. Thinking Fast and Slow. N. Y.: Farrar, Strauss, and Giroux, 2011. [Рус. изд.: Канеман Д. Думай медленно… Решай быстро. М.: АСТ, 2017.] Весьма интересный рассказ о том, почему этот подход оказался столь важным для экономистов, см.: Thaler R.H. Misbehaving. N. Y.: W. W. Norton, 2015. [Рус. изд.: Талер Р . Новая поведенческая экономика. Почему люди нарушают правила традиционной экономики. М.: Эксмо, 2017.]
Cross P. Not Can but Will College Teachers Be Improved? // New Directions for Higher Education. 1977. No. 17. P. 1–15.
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Разумеется, недооценка минусов, связанных с будущей работой, эквивалентна переоценке ее плюсов.
Всестороннее обсуждение этой тенденции см.: Ainslie G . Pico-economics. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2001.
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Gilovich T. Op. cit.
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Clemens S., Barnes R . Support for Same-Sex Marriage at an All-Time High // Washington Post. April 23, 2015. ‹ https://www.washington-post.com/politics/courts_law/poll-gay-marriage-support-at-record-high/2015/04/22/f6548332-e92a-11e4-aae1-d642717d8afa_story.html›.
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