Нассим Талеб - The Black Swan. The Impact of the Highly Improbable

Здесь есть возможность читать онлайн «Нассим Талеб - The Black Swan. The Impact of the Highly Improbable» весь текст электронной книги совершенно бесплатно (целиком полную версию без сокращений). В некоторых случаях можно слушать аудио, скачать через торрент в формате fb2 и присутствует краткое содержание. Год выпуска: 2010, Издательство: Random House Publishing Group, Жанр: Политика, Публицистика, на английском языке. Описание произведения, (предисловие) а так же отзывы посетителей доступны на портале библиотеки ЛибКат.

The Black Swan. The Impact of the Highly Improbable: краткое содержание, описание и аннотация

Предлагаем к чтению аннотацию, описание, краткое содержание или предисловие (зависит от того, что написал сам автор книги «The Black Swan. The Impact of the Highly Improbable»). Если вы не нашли необходимую информацию о книге — напишите в комментариях, мы постараемся отыскать её.

A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was.
The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives.
Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities.
We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don’t know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the “impossible.”
For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. Now, in this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don’t know. He offers surprisingly simple tricks for dealing with black swans and benefiting from them.
Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory.
The Black Swan is a landmark book – itself a black swan.

The Black Swan. The Impact of the Highly Improbable — читать онлайн бесплатно полную книгу (весь текст) целиком

Ниже представлен текст книги, разбитый по страницам. Система сохранения места последней прочитанной страницы, позволяет с удобством читать онлайн бесплатно книгу «The Black Swan. The Impact of the Highly Improbable», без необходимости каждый раз заново искать на чём Вы остановились. Поставьте закладку, и сможете в любой момент перейти на страницу, на которой закончили чтение.

Тёмная тема
Сбросить

Интервал:

Закладка:

Сделать

Rabin, Matthew, 2000, “Inference by Believers in the Law of Small Numbers.” Working Paper, Economics Department, University of California, Berkeley, http://repositories.cdlib.org/iberecon/.

Ramachandran, V. S., 2003, The Emerging Mind . London: Portfolio.

Ramachandran, V. S., and S. Blakeslee, 1998, Phantoms in the Brain . New York: Morrow.

Rancière, Jacques, 1997, Les mots de l’histoire. Essai de poétique du savoir . Paris: Éditions du Seuil.

Ratey, John J., 2001, A User’s Guide to the Brain: Perception, Attention and the Four Theaters of the Brain . New York: Pantheon.

Rawls, John, 1971, A Theory of Justice . Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press.

Reboul, Anne, 2006, “Similarities and Differences Between Human and Nonhuman Causal Cognition.” Interdisciplines Conference on Causality, www.interdisciplines.org.

Redner, S., 1998, “How Popular Is Your Paper? An Empirical Study of the Citation Distribution.” European Physical Journal B 4: 131–134.

Rees, Martin, 2004, Our Final Century: Will Civilization Survive the Twenty-first Century? London: Arrow Books.

Reichenbach, H., 1938, Experience and prediction . Chicago: The University of Chicago Press.

Remus, W., M. Oapos Connor, and K. Griggs, 1997, “Does Feedback Improve the Accuracy of Recurrent Judgmental Forecasts?” Proceedings of the Thirtieth Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences, January 7–10: 5–6.

Rescher, Nicholas, 1995, Luck: The Brilliant Randomness of Everyday Life . New York: Farrar, Straus & Giroux.

———, 2001, Paradoxes: Their Roots, Range, and Resolution . Chicago: Open Court Books.

Richardson, L. F., 1960, Statistics of Deadly Quarrels . Pacific Grove, Calif.: Boxwood Press.

Rips, L., 2001, “Necessity and Natural Categories.” Psychological Bulletin 127: 827–852.

Roberts, Royston M., 1989, Serendipity: Accidental Discoveries in Science . New York: Wiley.

Robins, Richard W., 2005, “Pscyhology: The Nature of Personality: Genes, Culture, and National Character.” Science 310: 62–63.

Rollet, Laurent, 2005, Un mathématicien au Panthéon? Autour de la mort de Henri Poincaré . Laboratoire de Philosophie et d’Histoire des Sciences—Archives Henri-Poincaré, Université Nancy 2.

Ronis, D. L., and J. F. Yates, 1987, “Components of Probability Judgment Accuracy: Individual Consistency and Effects of Subject Matter and Assessment Method.” Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 40: 193–218.

Rosch, E., 1978, “Principles of Categorization.” In E. Rosch and B. B. Lloyd, eds., Cognition and Categorization . Hillsdale, N.J.: Lawrence Erlbaum.

Rosch, E. H., 1973, “Natural Categories.” Cognitive Psychology 4: 328–350.

Rose, Steven, 2003, The Making of Memory: From Molecules to Mind , revised ed. New York: Vintage.

Rosen, S., 1981, “The Economics of Superstars.” American Economic Review 71: 845–858.

Rosenzweig, Phil, 2006, The Halo Effect and Other Business Delusions: Why Experts Are So Often Wrong and What Wise Managers Must Know . New York: The Free Press.

Ross, Stephen A., 2004, Neoclassical Finance . Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.

Rosser, B., 2009, “How complex are the Austrians?,” working paper.

Rounding, Virginia, 2006, Catherine the Great: Love, Sex and Power . London: Hutchinson.

Ruelle, David, 1991, Hasard et chaos . Paris: Odile Jacob.

Ruffié, Jacques, 1977, De la biologie à la culture . Paris: Flammarion.

Russell, Bertrand, 1912, The Problems of Philosophy . New York: Oxford University Press.

———, 1993, My Philosophical Development . London: Routledge.

———, 1996, Sceptical Essays . London: Routledge.

Russo, J. Edward, and Paul J. H. Schoernaker, 1992, “Managing Overconfidence.” Sloan Management Review 33(2): 7–17.

Ryle, Gilbert, 1949, The Concept of Mind . Chicago: The University of Chicago Press.

Salganik, Matthew J., Peter S. Dodds, and Duncan J. Watts, 2006, “Experimental Study of Inequality and Unpredictability in an Artificial Cultural Market.” Science 311: 854–856.

Saliba, George, 2007, Islamic Science and the Making of the European Renaissance (Transformations: Studies in the History of Science and Technology). Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press.

Samuelson, Paul A., 1983, Foundations of Economic Analysis . Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press.

Sapolsky, Robert M., 1998, Why Zebras Don’t Get Ulcers: An Updated Guide to Stress, Stress-related Diseases, and Coping . New York: W. H. Freeman and Company.

Sapolsky, Robert, M., and the Department of Neurology and Neurological Sciences, Stanford University School of Medicine, 2003, “Glucocorticoids and Hippocampal Atrophy in Neuropsychiatric Disorders.”

Savage, Leonard J., 1972, The Foundations of Statistics . New York: Dover.

Schacter, Daniel L., 2001, The Seven Sins of Memory: How the Mind Forgets and Remembers . Boston: Houghton Mifflin.

Schelling, Thomas, 1971, “Dynamic Models of Segregation.” Journal of Mathematical Sociology 1: 143–186.

———, 1978, Micromotives and Macrobehavior . New York: W. W. Norton and Company.

Scheps, Ruth, ed., 1996, Les sciences de la prévision . Paris: Éditions du Seuil.

Schroeder, Manfred, 1991, Fractals, Chaos, Power Laws: Minutes from an Infinite Paradise . New York: W. H. Freeman and Company.

Schumpeter, Joseph, 1942, Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy . New York: Harper.

Seglen, P. O., 1992, “The Skewness of Science.” Journal of the American Society for Information Science 43: 628–638.

Sextus Empiricus, 2000, Outline of Scepticism , edited by Julia Annas and Jonathan Barnes. New York: Cambridge University Press.

———, 2005, Against the Logicians , translated and edited by Richard Bett. New York: Cambridge University Press.

Shackle, G.L.S., 1961, Decision Order and Time in Human Affairs . Cambridge: Cambridge University Press

———, 1973, Epistemics and Economics: A Critique of Economic Doctrines . Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Shanteau, J., 1992, “Competence in Experts: The Role of Task Characteristics.” Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 53: 252–266.

Sharpe, William F., 1994, “The Sharpe Ratio.” Journal of Portfolio Management 21(1): 49–58.

———, 1996, “Mutual Fund Performance.” Journal of Business 39: 119–138.

Shiller, Robert J., 1981, “Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to Be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?” American Economic Review 71(3): 421–436.

———, 1989, Market Volatility . Cambridge, Mass.: The MIT Press.

———, 1990, “Market Volatility and Investor Behavior.” American Economic Review 80(2): 58–62.

———, 1995, “Conversation, Information, and Herd Behavior.” American Economic Review 85(2): 181–185.

———, 2000, Irrational Exuberance . Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.

———, 2003, The New Financial Order: Risk in the 21st Century . Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.

Shizgal, Peter, 1999, “On the Neural Computation of Utility: Implications from Studies of Brain Simulation Rewards.” In D. Kahneman, E. Diener, and N. Schwarz, eds., 1999.

Sieff, E. M., R. M. Dawes, and G. Loewenstein, 1999, “Anticipated Versus Actual Reaction to HIV Test Results.” American Journal of Psychology 122: 297–311.

Читать дальше
Тёмная тема
Сбросить

Интервал:

Закладка:

Сделать

Похожие книги на «The Black Swan. The Impact of the Highly Improbable»

Представляем Вашему вниманию похожие книги на «The Black Swan. The Impact of the Highly Improbable» списком для выбора. Мы отобрали схожую по названию и смыслу литературу в надежде предоставить читателям больше вариантов отыскать новые, интересные, ещё непрочитанные произведения.


Отзывы о книге «The Black Swan. The Impact of the Highly Improbable»

Обсуждение, отзывы о книге «The Black Swan. The Impact of the Highly Improbable» и просто собственные мнения читателей. Оставьте ваши комментарии, напишите, что Вы думаете о произведении, его смысле или главных героях. Укажите что конкретно понравилось, а что нет, и почему Вы так считаете.

x