Питер Франкопан - The Silk Roads - A New History of the World

57. “Untitled,” Donald Rumsfeld notes, 27 November 2001, National Security Archive.

58. Ibid.

59. “Europe: Key Views on Iraqi Threat and Next Steps,” 18 December 2001; “Problems and Prospects of ‘Justifying’ War with Iraq,” 29 August 2002. Both issued by U.S. Department of State, Bureau of Intelligence and Research Intelligence Assessment, National Security Archive. Lord Goldsmith to Prime Minister, “Iraq,” 30 July 2002; “Iraq: Interpretation of Resolution 1441,” Draft, 14 January 2003; “Iraq: Interpretation of Resolution 1441,” Draft, 12 February 2003, The Iraq Enquiry Archive.

60. “To Ousted Boss, Arms Watchdog Was Seen as an Obstacle in Iraq,” New York Times , 13 October 2013.

61. “Remarks to the United Nations Security Council,” 5 February 2003, National Security Archive.

62. “The Status of Nuclear Weapons in Iraq,” 27 January 2003, IAEA, National Security Archive.

63. “An Update on Inspection,” 27 January 2003, UNMOVIC, National Security Archive.

64. Woods and Stout, “New Sources for the Study of Iraqi Intelligence,” esp. 548–52.

65. “Remarks to the United Nations Security Council,” 5 February 2003; cf. “Iraqi Mobile Biological Warfare Agent Production Plants,” CIA report, 28 May 2003, National Security Archive.

66. “The Future of the Iraq Project,” State Department, 20 April 2003, National Security Archive.

67. Ari Fleischer, Press Briefing, 18 February 2003; Paul Wolfowitz, “Testimony before House Appropriations Subcommittee on Defense,” 27 March 2003.

68. “US Strategy in Afghanistan: Draft for Discussion,” National Security Council Memorandum, 16 October 2001, National Security Archive.

69. Planning Group Polo Step, U.S. Central Command Slide Compilation, c. 15 August 2002, National Security Archive.

70. H. Fischer, “US Military Casualty Statistics: Operation New Dawn, Operation Iraqi Freedom and Operation Enduring Freedom,” Congressional Research Service , RS22452 (Washington, DC, 2014).

71. Estimates of numbers of civilian casualties in Iraq and Afghanistan between 2001 and 2014 are regularly placed within the range of 170,000–220,000. See for example www.costsofwar.org.

72. L. Bilmes, “The Financial Legacy of Iraq and Afghanistan: How Wartime Spending Decisions Will Constrain Future National Security Budgets,” Harvard Kennedy School Faculty Research Working Paper Series , March 2013.

73. R. Gates, Memoirs of a Secretary at War (New York, 2014), p. 577.

74. “How is Hamid Karzai Still Standing?,” New York Times , 20 November 2013.

75. “Memorandum for President Bush: Strategic Thoughts,” National Security Archive.

76. “ ‘Rapid Reaction Media Team’ Concept,” U.S. Department of Defense, Office of the Assistant Secretary for Special Operations and Low-Intensity Conflict, 16 January 2003, National Security Archive.

77. M. Phillips, “Cheney Says He was Proponent for Military Action against Iran,” Wall Street Journal , 30 August 2009.

78. “Kerry presses Iran to prove its nuclear program peaceful,” Reuters, 19 November 2013.

79. “Full Text: Al-Arabiya Interview with John Kerry,” 23 January 2014, www.alarabiya.com.

80. President Obama, “Remarks by the President at AIPAC Policy Conference,” 4 March 2012, White House.

81. D. Sanger, “Obama Order Sped Up Wave of Cyber-Attacks against Iran,” New York Times , 1 June 2012; idem, Confront and Conceal: Obama’s Secret Wars and Surprising Use of American Power (New York, 2012).

CONCLUSION: THE NEW SILK ROAD

1. B. Gelb, Caspian Oil and Gas: Production and Prospects (2006); BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2006 ; PennWell Publishing Company, Oil & Gas Journal , 19 December 2005; Energy Information Administration, Caspian Sea Region: Survey of Key Oil and Gas Statistics and Forecasts , July 2006; “National Oil & Gas Assessment,” U.S. Geological Survey (2005).

2. T. Klett, C. Schenk, R. Charpentier, M. Brownfield, J. Pitman, T. Cook and M. Tennyson, “Assessment of Undiscovered Oil and Gas Resources of the Volga-Ural Region Province, Russia and Kazakhstan,” U.S. Geological Service (2010), pp. 3095–6.

3. Zelenyi Front, “Vyvoz chernozema v Pesochine: brakon’ervy zaderrzhany,” Press Release (Kharkiv, 12 June 2011).

4. World Bank, World Price Watch (Washington, DC, 2012).

5. Afghanistan is responsible for 74 per cent of global opium production, down from 92 per cent in 2007, United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime—World Drug Report 2011 (Vienna, 2011), p. 20. Ironically, as local opium prices show, the more effective the campaign to reduce opium production, the higher the prices—and hence the more lucrative cultivation and trafficking become. For some recent figures, see Afghanistan Opium Price Monitoring: Monthly Report (Ministry of Counter Narcotics, Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, Kabul, and United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, Kabul, March 2010).

6. “Lifestyles of the Kazakhstani leadership,” U.S. diplomatic cable, EO 12958, 17 April 2008, WikiLeaks.

7. Guardian , 20 April 2015.

8. “President Ilham Aliyev—Michael (Corleone) on the Outside, Sonny on the Inside,” U.S. diplomatic cable, 18 September 2009, WikiLeaks EO 12958; for Aliyev’s property holding in Dubai, Washington Post , 5 March 2010.

9. Quoted in “HIV created by West to enfeeble third world, claims Mahmoud Ahmadinejad,” Daily Telegraph , 18 January 2012.

10. Hillary Clinton, “Remarks at the New Silk Road Ministerial Meeting,” New York, 22 September 2011, U.S. State Department.

11. J. O’Neill, Building with Better BRICS , Global Economics Paper, No. 66, Goldman Sachs (2003); R. Sharma, Breakout Nations: In Pursuit of the Next Economic Miracles (London, 2012); J. O’Neill, The Growth Map: Economic Opportunity in the BRICs and Beyond (London, 2011).

12. Jones Lang Lasalle, Central Asia: Emerging Markets with High Growth Potential (February 2012).

13. www.rotana.com/erbilrotana.

14. The World in London: How London’s Residential Resale Market Attracts Capital from across the Globe , Savills Research (2011).

15. The Cameroon international star, Samuel Eto’o, signed from Barcelona in 2011, Associated Press, 23 August 2011. The opening of the 2010 Under-17 Women’s World Cup was marked by a ten-minute opening ceremony featuring “award-winning dance group Shiv Shakit,” “Grand Opening: Trinbagonian treat in store for U-17 Women’s World Cup,” Trinidad Express , 27 August 2010.

16. T. Kutchins, T. Sanderson and D. Gordon, The Northern Distribution Network and the Modern Silk Road: Planning for Afghanistan’s Future , Center for Strategic and International Studies (Washington, DC, 2009).

17. I. Danchenko and C. Gaddy, “The Mystery of Vladimir Putin’s Dissertation,” edited version of presentations by the authors at a Brookings Institution Foreign Policy Program panel, 30 March 2006.

18. “Putin pledges $43 billion for infrastructure,” Associated Press, 21 June 2013. For estimates, see International Association “Coordinating Council on Trans-Siberian Transportation,” “Transsib: Current Situation and New Business Perspectives in Europe–Asian Traffic,” UNECE Workgroup, 9 September 2013.

19. See for example the Beijing Times , 8 May 2014.

20. “Hauling New Treasure along Silk Road,” New York Times , 20 July 2013.

21. For a report on China’s impact on retail gold prices, World Gold Council, China’s Gold Market: Progress and Prospects (2014). Sales in China of Prada and related companies rose by 40 per cent in 2011 alone, Annual Report, Prada Group (2011). By the end of 2013, Prada Group’s revenues in Greater China were almost double those of North and South America combined, Annual Report (2014).