Дэвид Уоллес - Island of Fog and Death

Li smiled and nodded once more.

“First part. Do I think intelligent life exists? Hell, yes, I’m damn near certain of it. Let me justify that position. Start with our own galaxy, the Milky Way. I’m told there are somewhere between 100 billion and one trillion stars in the Milky Way. A widely quoted number is 400 billion, so let’s work with that. Astronomical surveys have suggested that most stars have at least one planet, and mostly several planets, orbiting them. Let’s call it 500 billion planets, which is pretty conservative. I’ve seen estimates that one planet in fifty, or thereabouts, have conditions of heat and gravity fairly compatible with Earth, which we know are conditions under which life can emerge. So let’s estimate ten billion planets in the Milky Way can potentially support life.

“Next part of the argument. Extrapolate to the whole universe. There are about 200 billion galaxies out there, and again, that’s probably conservative. Most of them are as big as, or bigger than, the Milky Way. So estimating that the number of planets in the whole universe capable of life as we know it is more than one followed by twenty-odd zeroes. That’s one hell of a big number.

“Final part of the argument. Let’s assume that the probability of life becoming intelligent enough and sentient enough to be considered as sci-fi ‘aliens’ is miniscule. Name your own probability. No matter how small it is, once you multiply that tiny number by one followed by twenty-odd zeroes, you get a big number. Make it a one in a billion chance, if you like. That would give you intelligent alien life evolving more than a billion billion times over.

“Anyone see a flaw in the reasoning?”

The stared at her in silence. Then Mitchelson looked at her, and said, “Wow. I mean, just, wow. You worked all that out in your head, on the spot?”

Peri shrugged. “Would it impress you more if I said I did the arithmetic in my head, or if I said I read it once and remembered it?”

“I tell ya, I’d be impressed either way.”

“Let it be my little secret, then.”

“So,” Montrache cut in smoothly, “your argument is simply that the universe is so big that even if the chance of life developing and turning intelligent is tiny, it is a near certainty that it has happened many times.”

Peri grinned at him. “That is very succinct, but, I venture to suggest, much less impressive than my version.”

Everyone chuckled.

“Okay,” said Peri. “On to the second part of the question, which was about aliens visiting Earth. On this one my answer is, hell, no, I don’t think so. My justification is pretty much the same as for the first part: the universe is just really, really big, and the probability of an intelligent, space-faring civilisation emerging within a reasonable distance of Earth is just tiny. Do I need to go further?”

Mitchelson laughed. “I think everyone round this table – including Peri – is familiar with the so-called Fermi Paradox. And certainly, the impossibility of faster than light travel is a persuasive factor, given the distances involved. But tell me, Peri. If travel time for the aliens was not a big obstacle, then what explanation would you put forward to answer Professor Fermi when he asks, ‘Where is everybody?’”

“You are, in effect, eliminating a bunch of possible explanations with that question,” replied Peri, thoughtfully. “I mean, the premise of the question sort of assumes that aliens exist, that they can detect us, that they can get here, and leads us toward speculation that they can hide themselves well, or that there’s a global conspiracy by governments to—”

She stopped, and her jaw dropped. She stared at the people across the table and made some inarticulate sounds. Suddenly she started laughing. She laughed almost hysterically. She laughed so hard, that tears ran down her cheeks. Finally she managed to calm herself enough to get some words out. “That’s it, isn’t it? YOU are directing the global conspiracy to keep aliens secret! Well, fuck me, you’re the Men in Black!” She laughed, then realised she was in danger of sounding hysterical.

“I’m sorry,” Peri said as she calmed down. “I am really, really sorry. I should not have reacted in such an unprofessional and embarrassing way. I just didn’t know how to deal with the idea that not only might crackpot conspiracies be true, but that you might be trying to involve me…”

“Relax, Peri,” said Li. “We led the conversation in a certain direction, and I for one am impressed by how you analysed and extrapolated the information available to you to arrive at a hypothesis. And I know it is a rather startling hypothesis. Now let us move on. Evgeny?”

“Where do you stand on the subject of…” Here the Russian paused and studied her face carefully. He went on, “…the supernatural?”

Peri drew in a deep breath. Carefully picking her words, she said, “I firmly believe that we do not have all the answers to how the mind works, or how nature works in the round. There are phenomena that are poorly understood, or not understood at all. There is scope in my mind for topics to be labelled – no, let me start that again.”

She was visibly shaken by the Russian’s question, and they could see that she was struggling to compose herself. They waited in silence. Peri leant forward and asked, “Are you familiar with Clark’s Third Law?”

Li smiled and nodded encouragingly.

Peri went on, “In an essay that he wrote in 1962 and revised in 1973, Arthur C Clark wrote, ‘Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.’ If we substitute ‘the supernatural’ for ‘magic’ in that statement, we get something close to my personal beliefs. I find it easy to believe that there are many phenomena that we struggle to explain in scientific terms, because our science is incomplete, and not because they are the results of magic. An alternative re-statement of Clark’s Law that I have come across is, ‘Any sufficiently advanced extra-terrestrial intelligence is indistinguishable from God.’ ”

Peri looked at each of the committee members. “I think I see what your, ostensibly strange, line of discussion is suggesting. Is it the case that the UN is interested in phenomena that may best be described as ‘preternatural’, that is, abnormal and unexplainable by our understanding of nature?”

Mitchelson nodded and said, “Go on, Peri.”

“Events that may – or may not – be attributable to a non-terrestrial source. At least, a source that we can’t explain through our understanding of terrestrial mathematics, physics and chemistry. I think I see the tie to the UNTNC that you mentioned earlier. There are some events that we can conceive of, and that we need to plan for, even though we can’t explain them except in preternatural terms.”

Mitchelson leaned across the table and looked Peri right in the eye. “Listen, Peri, and listen carefully. This is not an abstract debate. We are not considering events that we can conceive of as thought experiments. We are in the business of dealing with reality. Humans have been forced to take extreme action against entities that can best be described as monsters, and more than once. We may not have scientific explanations of these things, but they are a clear danger to all of us.”

Peri blinked at his intensity. “Extreme action? How do you hide that ?”

Rostovich spoke. “Chernobyl. Something manifested in a nuclear power station and had to be eliminated. Explained away by bombing the reactor to fake a meltdown.”

Montrache added, “Armero, Colombia, 1953. Something melted all the snow-caps and glaciers on a mountain, twenty thousand dead. Explained by a volcanic eruption.”