Джон Шеттлер: Condition Zebra: The Next War - 2025

China had long ago mended fences with Vietnam, gaining access to the harbor at Cam Rahn Bay and the airfields at Da Nang and Tan Son Naht, which were in a perfect position to support all the small outposts they had built on the reef islands. They had also cut elaborate infrastructure deals with the Philippines to gain access to the long archipelagic province island of Palawan, which stretched like a great stone wall between the main islands of Mindoro and Luzon, and Malaysia on the big island of Borneo. Anchored by Taiwan in the north, Chinese outposts and military bases stretched south through the Batanes Islands, to Manila, and across Palawan. There they set up radars, and SAM and SSM sites to hold the outer perimeter of their South China Sea.

By 2025, with the US having to resort to bases it maintain further east on the so called “Second Island Chain,” there was no question as to who really dominated the South China Sea. It was a Chinese lake, seeing 80% of that nation’s commercial traffic pass daily, all mostly coming through the great southern bottleneck of the Strait of Malacca. In that region, the Chinese had then worked to put a cork in that bottle, making great efforts to obtain a presence in the Riau Archipelago. They negotiated with Indonesia to get basing rights at Ranai AFB on the main island there, and that bastion formed their southern anchor.

“Gentlemen,” said Admiral Pearson. “We have a situation developing. It seems the Chinese have moved strong naval elements south, mustering here, near the Island of Riau. Royal Navy Intelligence is of the opinion that this may be a prelude to, or the advanced stages of, an operation aimed at Singapore. We all know that most everything they ship into China passes within eight miles of our watch here. It’s as if every ship coming to Britain had to check in at Shanghai first. We are, and have been, the gatekeepers of the Malacca Strait since Sir Stanford Raffles established a port here in 1818. Yet I will note that in the 150 odd souls that first established his shore party here, 30 were Chinese.”

It was commerce that brought the British to Singapore, for all the traffic from British India passed through the Strait of Malacca, including the opium traffic to China. And it was commerce that kept Britain there for the next two centuries. Aside from a temporary eviction by the Japanese, Britain had sat there, inviolate, for over 200 years.

“I don’t have to tell anyone here just how important this watch is,” said Pearson. “As things have already gone to hammers and tongs with the Chinese in the Med, Whale Island has put us on a full alert war footing. We are to sortie this morning and maintain a strong fleet presence in the Natuna Sea, east of Singapore, and we are to prevent any advance or passage of Chinese naval forces in those waters. After Malta, gentlemen, I don’t have to tell you things may get disagreeable rather soon. This is a vital maritime outpost, and one the Chinese will dearly want to dominate. We simply must not let that happen. Questions?”

One man raised his hand, Captain James Albert Snow of HMS Illustrious . “Sir, might we expect help from the UK soon?”

“Admiral Wells has brought the entire Mediterranean Squadron south to Durban, and with Prince of Wales . But that fleet is presently 5000 miles away. I’m told Queen Elizabeth is putting out to sea, but gentlemen, any force from the UK is between thirteen and sixteen thousand miles away from us as we speak here. So we mustn’t count on that in the foreseeable future. More to the point, we do have Ark Royal, and frigates Brazen and Kenya at Diego Garcia, but that force has been part of the Anglo-American TF there, and Whale Island has tasked it for a potential move north to Oman. The situation in the Middle East is presently what this is all about. It’s why Admiral Wells is entering the Indian Ocean. Sea control, gentlemen, sea control. We cannot move forces necessary to deter Iraq unless we first control the seas that will carry them there. In that instance, here at Singapore, we’re on our own.”

“What about the Aussies, sir?”

“Ah yes, our friends from Down Under are with us, but they’ll be huddling on the scrimmage line with the Yanks at the moment. The US carrier Roosevelt is at Darwin, and if we do get any help, that’s where it will come from. Until then, we put out to sea this morning, standing to, and we’ll show the flag proudly. If they see us in strength, we just might dissuade them from any real move on the Strait of Malacca. Anyone else?”

There were no further questions.

“Very well, go with God, gentlemen, and take King and country along in your thoughts as well. Remember Malta.”

Admiral Wu Jinlong was a careful man, particularly when he was now facing battle. He had received his orders days ago from South Seas Commander, Admiral Yang Kai Yong, and he knew this was a most important mission. Thus far, the war was going according to plan, but with mixed results. The operations aimed at the Ryukyu Islands had taken the enemy by surprise, and led to the swift occupation of all planned objectives. The first Island Chain was now completely under the control of the Chinese Navy.

Then the thrust towards Iwo Jima had been parried by the Americans, and with the loss of the big fleet carrier Haishen . That was an embarrassing defeat, he knew, though he could not ever characterize it that way to other fleet officers.

He had subsequently learned that it was a Siberian ship that had sunk Haishen , which raised more than one eyebrow in the General Staff, for no one knew this ship even existed! A few heads would roll in the Naval Intelligence Division, for how could the Siberians hide a ship that size? It was therefore determined that this ship had to have been built by the Soviet Union, and then sold to Siberia, but this remained an inexcusable and unaccountable intelligence lapse. That it was followed soon after by the surprise attack of the Siberian Army across the Amur River was salt in the wounds.

Yet that flood tide has now become a stagnant pool, thought the Admiral, a matter for the Army to worry over. That said, we have been forced to relinquish Haishenwei, Vladivostok, and that clearly was not part of the general war plan. No matter, we rendered that port useless to the enemy, and our Korean ports still allow us to project power throughout the Beihai region.

The Siberians… Always a problem, he mused, and then turned his thoughts to the most recent engagements. Operation Wildfire in the Med had been a great success, in spite of inevitable losses. The fleet there has disrupted commercial traffic from Gibraltar to Suez, destroyed the British bastion at Malta, and then it made a well-coordinated exit through Suez and the Red Sea to reinforce the Indian Ocean. All our West African assets have been withdrawn there as well, for the Indian Ocean will surely be a decisive battle zone in the days ahead.

And that is where I am going.

The Admiral was a determined man. His given name, Jinlong, meant “Golden Dragon,” and he was very pleased when the navy named one of its newest Type 055 destroyers by that same name.

Yes, he thought, we have moved a considerable portion of our South Seas Fleet under my command for operation Dongmen , the Eastern Gate. That is as good a name for Singapore as any. This is far more significant than my earlier operation with the Thunder Gods. There I was largely in a supporting role for the invasion of the Ryukyus, here I become the tip of the spear. Do we have the strength to prevail?

He ran down the list in his mind. He had his flagship, Zhendong , the only carrier that could be spared. In support, there were twenty more fighting ships, which included six in the squadron from Viet Nam. That group makes up the bulk of our destroyers, but can they fight? Those ships were all acquired from the French, and Viet Nam is an odd bridge between east and west. They maintained good relations with their old colonial masters, and now they have been wise enough to forsake their enmity with China and become our ally.