David Weber - How firm a foundation

“They couldn’t,” Cayleb said slowly, and she nodded.

“Which is why I don’t think they did anything of the sort,” she said flatly. “I don’t know how, but God knows the Inquisition’s been managing spies and informants and agents provocateurs forever, and Clyntahn already proved in Manchyr that he could engineer the assassination of a reigning prince without anyone catching him at it! They managed to get this assassin and his weapon into position somehow, too, and the only way I can think of for them to’ve done that without our catching them at it is to organize it the same way they must have organized their misinformation gambit before the Markovian Sea.”

“They planned it and put it together inside the Temple, where we can’t get SNARCs in to snoop on them,” Nahrmahn said. “That’s what you’re saying. And because they’ve figured out our spies are better than theirs, even if they don’t have a clue why that’s true, they sent their man in unsupported.”

“Unsupported by anyone he had to contact here, anyway,” Sharleyan corrected. “I don’t think there’s any way anyone could have set this all up on his own after he was here. There had to be some spadework before they sent him in. But I’ll bet you any contact with anyone here in Tellesberg or Old Charis went through the Temple, not through anyone else here.”

“Limiting themselves to communications channels that go directly from one person back to the Temple and then from the Temple back to that one person?” Cayleb could have sounded dismissive, but he didn’t, and his expression was thoughtful. “How in hell could they pull that off?”

“That depends on how willing they’d be to use things like the semaphore system and ciphers,” Nahrmahn responded. “We’re still using it to communicate with Siddarmark and Silkiah. In fact, we’re allowing greater access to it than the Church ever did, so if they feel confident of their cipher system, they could be sending their correspondence back and forth that way easily enough. For that matter, we’re not the only people with messenger wyverns, Cayleb.” The Emeraldian shook his head. “That’d be slow and cumbersome and not very responsive, but they could have set up a system that would do the job without ever going near the sempahore.

“The key point isn’t how they get messages back and forth, though. It’s the point Sharley’s raised: the probability that they’re sending out solo operatives. Our ability to detect them depends in large part on Owl’s ability to recognize key words in conversation and direct our attention to the people who used them, or on our ability to identify one agent and then work outward until we’ve found all the members of his network. A single assassin, especially one who’s prepared or even eager to die in the attempt, the way this fellow certainly was, is going to be one hell of a lot harder to spot and stop.”

“That’s true,” Cayleb agreed, rubbing his chin thoughtfully. “On the other hand, a single assassin’s going to be able to do a lot less damage than a full-blown conspiracy if we can keep the bastard away from wagonloads of gunpowder. And nothing anyone’s brought up so far suggests how they got that big a load of explosives through our customs inspections. If they’re avoiding building or working with a large organization, then surely they wouldn’t have tried to bribe the inspectors, and I doubt they’d use smugglers if they’re worried about the potential for being betrayed to the authorities! So how-?”

He broke off suddenly, eyes narrowing in thought. Then he grunted angrily and slammed his right fist into his left palm.

“Hairatha,” he said flatly. “That’s what that damned explosion was about! They didn’t smuggle the gunpowder into Tellesberg from one of the mainland realms; they used our gunpowder!”

“Wait. Wait!” Nahrmahn objected. “I’m not saying you’re wrong, Cayleb, but how do we jump from what just happened in Tellesberg to Hairatha?”

“I don’t know,” Cayleb admitted. “I don’t know, all right? But I’m right, I know I am! Call it a hunch, call it instinct, but that’s what happened. Somebody at Hairatha with the authority-or the access, at least-to doctor shipping manifests diverted gunpowder from our own powder mill. And they blew the damned place up to keep anyone from realizing they’d done it! To get rid of any paper trail that might have led back to them or to who they sent the powder to.” His expression was murderous. “My God, Hairatha shipped gunpowder in thousand-ton lots on a regular basis, Nahrmahn! We could have dozens of wagonloads of it sitting out there!”

“But how could they coordinate something like that without that organization you all seem to be agreeing they don’t have?” Staynair asked quietly.

“All they’d really need is what the intelligence organizations back on Old Terra used to call a ‘bagman.’” Nahrmahn’s tone was unhappy, as if he was unwillingly coming to the conclusion Cayleb might have a point. “If somebody did manage to divert a quantity of gunpowder from Hairatha to someone else in Old Charis-possibly somebody he’d never even met or contacted in any way himself, but whose address was supplied to him by a controller in Zion-then that person could have distributed it to a dozen other locations which had been set up exactly the same way. Or, for that matter, he could have kept it all in a single location and these lone assassins we’re hypothesizing about could have been given the address before they ever left Zion. I can’t begin to count the number of potential failure points in something like that, but all the ones I can think of would be much more likely to simply cause someone to not get to where he needed to be than to give the operation away to the other side. And look at it from Clyntahn’s perspective. What does he lose if it doesn’t work? But if it does work, he gets something like he just got today. He kills important members of Cayleb and Sharleyan’s government, and he does it very, very publicly. With lots of other bodies to go around. It’s a statement that even if the Group of Four can’t beat us at sea, they can still reach out into the very heart of Tellesberg and hurt us. Do you think for a moment that wouldn’t seem like a win-win situation for someone like him, Maikel?”

“But if you and Cayleb are right, how many other ‘lone assassins’ are out there?” Staynair’s expression was troubled.

“I have no idea,” Nahrmahn admitted frankly. He glared out the carriage window in frustration as it crossed into Cathedral Square, less than four blocks from the palace. “There could be scores of them, or this could have been the only one. Knowing Clyntahn, though, I doubt he’d have settled for one when he might have been able to get dozens into place. Why settle for a little bit of carnage when he could have a lot?”

“You’re probably right about that,” Cayleb said bitterly.

“And he’d want to underscore his ‘statement’ as strongly as possible, too,” Sharleyan added. Staynair and Cayleb looked at her, and she shrugged. “I think Nahrmahn’s right. He’s going to have been thinking in terms of as many attacks as he could contrive, within the limitations of whatever coordination system he had. And he’s going to want to concentrate them in terms of timing, too-get them in in the most focused window of time he can. He’s the kind who thinks in terms of hammer blows when he goes after his opponents’ morale.”

“Some kind of timetable?” Cayleb’s expression was suddenly strained once more. “You mean we’re probably looking at additional attacks scheduled to occur simultaneously?”

“Over a short period of time, anyway,” Sharleyan said, nodding unhappily. “There’s no way he could count on their being simultaneous, but they don’t have to be. Don’t forget the communications problem. We can talk back and forth instantaneously, but he doesn’t know that. As far as he’s concerned, word is going to have to spread before anyone can know to start taking precautions, and we can’t get warnings out any more rapidly than by semaphore. That means he only has to achieve approximate coordination, because he’d still be inside what Merlin calls our communications loop.”