Мартин Рис - On the Future - Prospects for Humanity

CCTV (video surveillance), 78

CFCs, 31–32, 47, 161

Challenger disaster, 145

Chernobyl disaster, 56

chess, 86, 87–88

China: information technology in, 83, 84; one-child policy of, 22; space program of, 145

circular economy, 46

cities. See megacities of developing world; urbanisation

citizen science, 157, 212

climate change, 21, 37–44; appropriate deployment of technology and, 4; computer models of, 57, 190; confidence in predictions of, 171; Dyson’s skepticism about urgency of, 79; feedback from water vapour and clouds, 39, 57; geoengineering and, 58–59, 60, 225; geopolitical obstacles to planning for, 226; loss of biodiversity due to, 32–33; politically realistic mitigation measures, 46–48; predicting what will happen, 57–58; reasons for inaction on, 44–45; serious societal consequences of, 215; timescale for response to, 60, 226; Vatican involvement with, 34–35. See also carbon dioxide in atmosphere; global warming

climate sensitivity factor, 40, 41, 57

the cloud, personal records in, 90

Club of Rome, 22

Cold War, 17–20

Collapse (Diamond), 215–16

comet, Rosetta mission to, 142

complexity: of astronomy vs. biological and human sciences, 172; defining, 172–75; emergent, 176, 177, 187, 214; of human beings, 164, 173–74; of human brains, 174, 177, 214; Kolmogorov measure of, 172, 174, 193; of living things, 166, 173–74, 179; from simple rules, 166–68; unfolding after the big bang, 164, 214

computers: dramatic advances in processors, 83; huge data sets and, 192, 208; hypercomputers of posthuman intelligence, 169–70; quantum computers, 185, 192; virtual experiments with, 190–92. See also AI (artificial intelligence); information technology (IT)

consciousness: AI systems and, 107; unfolded from big bang, 164. See also self-awareness

consumerism, 36

Conway, John, 166–68, 170, 174

Copenhagen Consensus, 42

Copernican revolution, 184, 204, 205

cosmic exploration, 121, 123–24. See also spaceflight

cosmic inflation theory, 187, 188

cosmology: as vital part of common culture, 214. See also big bang

Coursera, 98

creationism, 195, 196

Crick, Francis, 204–5

CRISPR/Cas9, 66–67, 73–74

Crutzen, Paul, 31

cryonics, 81–82

Cuba, environmental plan of, 45

Cuban missile crisis, 17–18, 20

Curiosity rover, 127–28, 143

cyberattack, threat of, 20–21, 94–95

cybertech, benefits and vulnerabilities of, 5, 6–7, 63, 109–10

cyborg technologies, 7, 151

dark matter, 179

Dartnell, Lewis, 217

Darwin, Charles, 121–22, 175, 194, 195, 196, 214. See also evolution

Dasgupta, Partha, 34

death: assisted dying, 70–71; organ transplants and, 71

Deep Blue, 86

DeepMind, 86–87, 106

demographic transition, 30

Dengue virus, 74

designer babies, 68–69

Deutsch, David, 192

developing countries: clean energy for, 48–49, 51; effective redeployment of existing resources for, 224; genetically modified (GM) crops and, 66; impact of information technology on, 83–84; megacities of, 22, 29, 77, 109; need for good governance in, 28–29; need to bypass high-consumption stage, 27, 36; population trends in, 30–31. See also Africa; China; India

Diamond, Jared, 216

diesel cars in Europe, 47

digitally deprived underclass, 76

Dijkstra, Edsger, 107

dinosaurs, 155

Dirac, Paul, 168–69, 210–11

dirty bomb, 56–57

disasters. See catastrophes

discount rate, and future generations, 42–43, 45, 226

distance learning, 98–99

DNA: gene editing and, 67–68; as universal basis for heredity, 175. See also genomes

Doing Good Better (MacAskill), 224

Drake, Frank, 156

driverless vehicles, 92–95, 102–3

drones: automated warfare with, 101; delivery by means of, 94; in Middle East but controlled from U.S., 100–101

drug design, by computers, 191–92

Dyson, Freeman, 78–79, 106, 161, 179–80

Dyson sphere, 161

Earth: Gaia hypothesis about, 216; history of, over 45 million centuries, 1–2; no escape in space from problems of, 150; as only world known to harbor life, 121; possible twins of, 131; stewards in a crucial era for, 10

earthquakes, 16

economic growth, sparing of resources, 26

education: global inequality and, 26, 220; internet and, 83, 220; life-long learning, 98–99; now improved for most people, 6; of women, 30

edX, 98

E-ELT (European Extremely Large Telescope), 134–35, 137

effective altruism, 224

Ehrlich, Paul, 22

Einstein, Albert, 168

Einstein’s theory of relativity: black holes and, 166; constant speed of light and, 204; the general theory, 166, 180, 184; relation to Newtonian physics, 205

electric cars, 46–47, 50

electricity grids: catastrophic breakdown of, 108–9; cyberattack on, 21; disrupted by solar flares, 16; high-voltage direct current (HVDC), 50; optimised by AI, 88

embryo research, 65, 73–74

emergent properties, 176–77, 187, 214

Enceladus, 128

energy demands: for agriculture, 23–24; of computers, 88; of growing population, 215; need of global planning for, 217, 219

energy efficiency, 46–47

energy generation, low-carbon, 47–57

energy management, of Google’s data farms, 88

energy storage, 48, 49–50, 51

engineering: aeronautical, 192; in agriculture, 23; basic physics and, 166; challenge of, 202

environmental degradation, 21, 215, 226

environmentalist worldview, 33

environmental policies, planning horizon for, 45

ethics: artificial intelligence and, 105; in biotech, 73–75; medical advances and, 69–74; scientists’ involvement with issues of, 74–75, 221–24; technology guided by, 226; of values that science can’t provide, 227

eugenics, 22, 69

Europa, 128, 129

European Extremely Large Telescope (E-ELT), 134–35, 137

evolution: bottlenecks in, 155–56, 158; creationism and, 195, 196; as great unifying idea, 175; intelligent design and, 196, 197; religious students of science and, 200; as vital part of common culture, 214. See also Darwin, Charles; posthuman evolution

exobiology, 129. See also aliens, intelligent; planets

extinctions, 4, 33; human, 117–18

Facebook, 78, 219

facial recognition, 84, 85, 89, 90, 101

financial crisis of 2008, 109

financial markets: computers in, 102, 109, 192; short-term expectations in, 226

fluid mechanics, 176

food production: antibiotics used in, 72; environmentally-sustainable planning for, 217; global warming and, 41; from insects, 25; loss of biodiversity associated with, 32; meat substitutes, 25, 60; possibility of global collapse in, 216; technology for, 26, 60. See also agriculture

fossil fuels: catastrophic warming and, 41–42, 57–58; as cause of rising CO 2levels, 38, 40; cheaper than solar energy, 49; climate sensitivity factor and, 41; direct extraction of CO 2from atmosphere and, 59; origin of, 123; plan B for dealing with, 58

fractals, 168, 174, 193

Fukushima Daiichi disaster, 53, 55–56, 57

future generations, 42–43, 44–45, 226, 227; possibility of human extinction and, 117–18

Gagarin, Yuri, 138

Gaia hypothesis, 216

Galapagos Islands, invasive species on, 74

galaxies: computer simulations of, 190; finite observable volume of, 181; human realisation that there are billions of, 184; Milky Way, 124, 125, 135, 178–79; separating by mysterious force, 179

Game of Life, 167–68, 170, 174

Gandhi, Indira, 22

Gandhi, Mahatma, 26