Erik Nordeus - The Engineer

Elon realized that the largest single problem faced by humanity is sustainable production and consumption of energy. “If we don’t solve that in this century, we’re in deep trouble,” Elon said. 63Each human living on this planet consumes on average nearly nine times as much energy as in 1850. More than 80 percent of this energy is provided by fossil fuels, and the problem with fossil fuels is that the world is running out of them. 42

In 1859, we drilled the world’s first oil well in Titusville, US. It had a depth of 66 feet [20 m]. From these first wells, it became common to see large black pillars of oil shooting up from the ground when a drill struck oil. We had not yet invented the car, so we used this new type oil from below the ground to light our lamps. It was easy to find new wells, so the oil flooded the market, and the price of one barrel dropped to just $0.1 [1 barrel = 42 gallons = 159 liters]. But it’s no longer this easy to find new oil wells. 42

Oil used to be algae on the bottom of lakes. Since the world’s geography always changes, these algae sank to a depth of between 7500 to 15 000 feet [2300 to 4600 m] where they were turned into oil. This process happened 90 and 150 million years ago during two periods of warm climate, hence the fossil in the name fossil fuel. Because Mother Earth manufactured all oil millions of years ago, the world has to realize the supply of oil is not endless. Sooner or later, the supply will reach a peak known as peak oil. 42

The basic idea behind peak oil is a curve called Hubbert’s peak. The geoscientist Marion King Hubbert, who used to work for the petroleum company Shell, developed the curve. Hubbert’s peak says that for any given geographical area – from an individual oil-producing region to the planet as a whole – the oil production follows a bell-shaped curve. The top of the curve is the important peak. After the peak has passed, the supply of oil will decrease. 42

Compared with opening a tap for water, extracting oil from a traditional oil field is more complicated. In the beginning, it’s easy to extract the oil. But after the peak, when the oil workers have pumped up about 50 percent, they have to use several methods to get the last drop. One method is to inject water into the well. But the water will also begin to mix with the oil. In the end, the last liquid pumped up will consist of as much as 90 percent water and 10 percent oil. Ghawar in Saudi Arabia is the largest oil field in the world, and each day they inject as much as 7 million barrels of seawater into the field. 42

Peak oil is a controversial topic. Those who believe in peak oil are often considered to be conspiracy theorists wearing tin foil hats. But peak oil isn’t a conspiracy by environmentalists. It’s a fact. The world consumes five barrels of oil for each new barrel of oil found, and this relationship can’t last forever. 44

The Deepwater Horizon oil spill in 2010 was the largest marine oil spill in the history of the petroleum industry. A total amount of 5 million barrels was lost in the Gulf of Mexico. You could argue that 5 million barrels are a lot of oil, but US alone consumes 20 million barrels of oil each day. 343Why would you drill 5000 feet [1500 m] below the Gulf of Mexico if you could have found the same oil in a well on land? “That’s why we have things like Deepwater Horizon, because Shallowwater Horizon is gone,” Elon said. 1

The question is when peak oil will happen. Elon expects this peak to happen around year 2020 and the world will finally run out of oil in 2050. 59The current amount of oil available was estimated to 1258 billion barrels. As the world consumed 87 million barrels per day in 2010, this oil will last for about 40 years. 343But the world will never run out of oil. The last oil available will be so expensive that no one can afford to buy it. Depending on who you ask, the consequences of higher oil prices will affect the world in different ways.

The most negative scenarios says that our society will become more like North Korea’s. A plane ticket across the Atlantic Ocean will cost $50 000. We will use bikes, horses, and boats to transport what we used to transport with gasoline vehicles. It has been estimated that the production of food per area of grown food will decrease by 75 percent because fertilizers are made from petroleum products, so we have to leave the cities and begin to grow our own food on the countryside. 42

The most positive scenarios says that as the price of oil increases, the society will automatically transform into a society not dependent on oil. “The Stone Age did not end for lack of stone, and the Oil Age will end long before the world runs out of oil,” a Saudi oil minister said. Consumers will become more positive to electric cars because it’s too expensive to drive the cars with a gasoline engine. To fly across the Atlantic Ocean, engineers will invent airplanes powered by electricity. This is the scenario Elon believes in. “For energy, you do have a gradual increase in the price of oil and changes in the supply curve, which will force innovation,” he said. 52

We can find several examples of this forced innovation if we look a few years back in time. In 1973, the first global oil crisis hit the world with full force. Several oil exporters from the Middle East limited the supply of oil because US supported Israel during the Yom Kippur war. The price of oil skyrocketed. Gas stations had to shut down because no oil was available, so people began to steal gasoline. There’s a famous picture from the era with a boy together with what’s most likely his father. The father carries a revolver and the boy is holding a sign saying, “Gas stealers beware! We’re loaded for Bear!” 41

But after the crisis ended, you could see how the society had adapted itself to the new conditions. While US as a whole became 32 percent more oil-efficient, vehicles became 50 percent more oil-efficient. To set an example, the former US President Jimmy Carter installed solar panels on the top of the White House. “A generation from now, this solar heater can either be a curiosity, a museum piece, an example of a road not taken,” Carter said. America chose the latter when the solar panels disappeared during President Ronald Reagan. The panels were not installed again until Barack Obama became the President. 43

Another energy crisis took place in Cuba. After the fall of the Soviet Union and after an increased blockade by US, Cuba couldn’t import oil and entered a period known as the Special Period. Blackouts could last for sixteen hours a day, and they had to rope buckets with water to the top of the tallest buildings. As an act of desperation, they imported 1.2 million bicycles from China and the Cubans themselves manufactured 500 000 more. 44

But in a similar way as after the 1973 energy crisis, the Cuban society adapted to these new conditions. It became common to hitchhike and government cars were required to pick up anyone who wanted a ride. The Cubans developed the Camel truck with a capacity to carry 300 people. In small towns, the Cubans used horses and mules to transport goods. They ate less, and they walked and biked across the country, so the average Cuban lost 12 pounds [6 kg]. This healthier lifestyle decreased the number of heart attacks, diabetes, and strokes. Solar panels were too expensive for most households, but 2000 schools were equipped with them. 44,45

Peak oil and global warming are often confused with each other. There’s an owner of an electric car who has a bumper stick on his car saying, “Environmentalists took money from the poor to pay me to buy this car.” 206But it doesn’t matter whether global warming is a hoax or not – what matters is that we are running out of oil. Elon has always been someone who’s a big fan of facts, and peak oil is a fact. “It’s not like there’s some infinite oil supply,” Elon said. “If there was hypothetically no environment or national-security issue, and all the oil in the world was in the US, we would still need to find a sustainable mode of transport because the oil will run out, and there will be economic collapse. We will run out of even the fracking resources.” 363,366,433