Larry Bond - Exit Plan

Admiral Hughes, the Chief of Naval Operations, hurried in and took a seat next to the General Dewhurst, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

“We have a quorum, gentleman, and we’re ten minutes late,” Myles’s chief of staff announced. “Dr. Foster, please begin.”

The CIA director s tone was grim. “Good morning Mr. President, ladies, and gentlemen. Nothing has changed since the initial briefing last week. There has been no indication of what happened to Pilot, who was supposed to convey Opal out of Iran to our agents in Kuwait. To the best of our knowledge, Opal is still safe and is following the instructions we provided for the backup extraction plan. Contact with Opal has been irregular since the loss of Pilot. It is possible that Pilot has been arrested, but we have no proof either way. While he had no information on Opal’s identity, Pilot did have instructions for making contact and extracting someone. If he’s been compromised, VEVAK knows we’re trying to get someone important out of Iran.

“How important?” Secretary Lloyd’s question had an edge to it.

“For several years, Opal has provided detailed, consistent information on the progress of the Iranian nuclear program. Two weeks ago Opal asked that he and his wife be extracted, saying he had urgent information, but that he feared discovery. ‘They’re closing in’ were his words,” Foster added.

The CIA director explained, “Opal’s information is especially important now, because it could resolve the conflict between recent intelligence, including imagery, indicating they’re preparing to test a device, and our past information, which had them years away from making a weapon.”

“In other words,” Lloyd suggested, “Opal will provide cover for your failure to notice they’ve built a bomb.”

Duvall interrupted. His tone was hard, but he kept his voice calm. “We have conflicting information, which we are reviewing carefully. It would be nice to give you a ‘yes’ or ‘no’ answer, Mr. President, but it would be intellectually dishonest.” He was staring straight at Lloyd, who remained silent, but stared back.

“Opal’s information is our best bet for understanding their true status. We also owe it to Opal to get him and his wife out if we can.” Myles nodded at the last point.

“Sounds like a setup to me,” Lloyd responded cynically. “We haven’t had a lot of success with defecting Iranians. Opal could have been a plant from the start, feeding you false information that you swallowed whole. Now, even as they’re preparing to test a weapon, Opal suddenly has ‘urgent’ data that will confuse us and delay any action by us. And we have to go get it. They’ve already rolled up one of our agents, and this gives the Iranians a perfect opportunity to create an incident, with us as the villains.”

Duvall answered quickly and sharply. “Maybe. But we can’t leap to conclusions. First, only a fool relies on a sole source of intelligence. As I said earlier, Opal’s information has been consistent with other information we’ve gathered. Second—”

“Then why are they drilling a hole in the ground?” demanded Lloyd angrily.

“That is what General Duvall is trying to find out,” President Myles answered. “Andy, we aren’t going to resolve this question today. Ray, what’s Plan B for Opal?”

Kirkpatrick answered, “I’m going to ask Dr. Joanna Patterson to brief you. She will be the action officer for this operation. She’s familiar with submarine operations and the technological issues.”

Joanna didn’t stand up. It was too intimate a setting, and besides, many men felt threatened by a tall woman. She ignored the others in the room and spoke directly to the president. “It’s really a variation of the original plan. Without going into too much detail, Pilot planned to smuggle Opal out by boat. Since we’ve lost Pilot, we will use a different boat. USS Michigan is in the theater and has a detachment of SEALs embarked, and is carrying a minisub. We need to use subs because the coast is heavily patrolled by IRGC Navy small craft.

“Michigan will make a submerged approach to the thirty-fathom line, a point approximately eight nautical miles off the coast, by the port city of Bandar Kangan, then launch the Advanced SEAL Delivery System, or ASDS minisub. It will close to within a few hundred yards from the shoreline — really, almost shouting distance. The SEALs will leave the ASDS while it’s submerged, swim ashore, rendezvous with Opal, and bring him and his wife back to the minisub. The SEALs, Opal, and his spouse will swim back on the surface to the ASDS, which will broach as they approach so that the swimmers can use the upper hatch. Once on board, the ASDS will rendezvous with Michigan , dock, and we’re done. It’s a simple plan, but simpler is always better.”

“Simple, except for the part about commandos and nuclear submarines,” answered Myles, smiling. “I assume this is being done at night?”

Patterson answered, “Actually, sir, we’re recommending the end of nautical twilight, or last light. While the SEALs prefer to operate at night, the civilians will need some daylight to find their way to the rendezvous point. And late-night activity on the coast can draw attention from passing patrols. The SEALs are trained to handle that, but the civilians are not. However, a couple out for a stroll on the beach during the evening glow is not an unusual event, even in Iran.”

“How long will the SEALs be exposed?” asked Secretary of Defense Springfield.

“If Opal is at the right place, at the right time, ten, maybe fifteen minutes. Even with civilians, the use of GPS significantly increases the chances of a quick rendezvous. Opal has a GPS device and he knows how to use it.”

“And if they’re discovered?” asked Myles.

“They run back to the water, hopefully with Opal, and leave,” Patterson answered. “They only risk exposure when they actually leave the water to make contact, and if bad guys are in sight, they just won’t go ashore.”

She added, “CENTCOM will have an RC-135 SIGINT aircraft on standing patrol in the gulf. It will monitor radio and phone transmissions in the area. They’re also tasking a medium-endurance UAV to monitor the rendezvous point. If either one sees anything amiss, we can warn the SEALs off.”

Myles looked at his notepad. “What’s the thirty-fathom curve?”

She answered, “The line on the chart where the water depth becomes less than thirty fathoms, a hundred and eighty feet. Nuclear subs can’t maneuver well in shallow water, especially ones as big as Michigan .”

“How far is that line out from shore?” the president asked.

“At that part of the coast, a little over eight nautical miles, sir.” Opening her folio, she took out a map and handed it to the president. “This shows the route of Michigan and the proposed pick-up point. This is Bandar Kangan, the nearest major city — really no more than a small town.” Myles nodded and returned the sheet. She quickly put it away, and did not show the map to anyone else in the room.

“There is a risk,” Lloyd insisted. “If the Iranians discover us in their waters, they’d consider it an act of war.”

“They won’t find Michigan or the ASDS,” the SECDEF replied confidently. “The Iranian Navy operates to the east of the Strait of Hormuz, in the Gulf of Oman. The IRGC Navy has responsibility for operations inside the gulf, and they have no antisubmarine warfare capability whatsoever.

Hughes and Ramsdale both nodded in agreement, but Lloyd didn’t look satisfied.

“Why does Michigan have to go into Iranian territorial waters?” Myles asked.

Patterson answered, “To shorten the run for the ASDS.”