Dale Brown: Executive Intent

CHINESE NAVY REQUIRES SUPERCRUISING FIGHTER (Aviation Week’s Defense Technology International, April 27, 2009): A supercruising combat aircraft is a high priority of the Chinese navy, the country’s top admiral says in a revealing official interview that gives strong clues of perceived shortcomings and future directions for the maritime force.

Admiral Wu Shengli also says China must step up work on precision missiles that can overcome enemy defenses, and the nation should move faster in developing large combat surface ships-probably meaning the aircraft-carrier program that looks increasingly imminent.

…For the Chinese navy, one advantage of supercruising would be the ability to cover a large defensive area in less time-quite useful if the imagined target is a U.S. carrier group at long range.

…“We must develop new-generation weapons such as large surface combat ships, stealthy long-endurance submarines, supercruising combat aircraft, precision long-range missiles that can penetrate defenses, as well as deep-diving, fast, and intelligent torpedoes, and electronic combat equipment offering compatibility and commonality.”

JAPAN: THE MILITARY EXPLOITATION OF SPACE (www.Stratfor.com, July 19, 2009): The Japanese Ministry of Defense’s annual white paper on defense was released July 17, making it explicit-for the first time-that Japan recognizes the need to develop space-based systems specifically for military purposes…

…This will further solidify the JSDF as one of the most technologically advanced and capable military forces in the world, and it will give it the tools to better monitor and secure Japan ’s global interests. But it will not happen in a vacuum. Japan ’s space program, combined with a concerted-and often clandestine-Chinese effort, could mean that a space race is heating up in East Asia.

CHINA DELIVERS FRIGATE TO PAKISTAN (www.Stratfor.com, July 30, 2009): China delivered the first of four F-22P frigates to Pakistan, Dawn News reported July 30, citing a Pakistani naval spokesman. Each warship will carry a helicopter, surface-to-surface missiles, and surface-to-air missiles.

CHINA LAUNCHES LONG-RANGE WAR GAMES (Associated Press, August 12, 2009): Beijing – China ’s military launched war games Tuesday aimed at deploying forces at long distances…

The exercises will send fifty thousand armored troops-the People’s Liberation Army’s “largest-ever tactical military exercise”-to unfamiliar areas far from their bases for two months of live-fire drills, state media reported.

…“In the unprecedented exercise, one of the PLA’s major objectives will be to improve its capacity of long-range projection,” the official Xinhua News Agency said. It said the war games constituted the army’s “largest-ever tactical military exercise…”

The 2.3-million-member PLA is the world’s largest standing military.

…The PLA has undergone a rapid upgrade in recent years in both equipment and doctrine. Two decades of almost annual double-digit increases in military spending have allowed the addition of cutting-edge fighter jets, nuclear submarines, and hundreds of ballistic missiles… China has announced a 14.9 percent rise in military spending in its 2009 budget, to 480.6 billion yuan (US$70.3 billion).

…The military has also taken steps to emerge from its traditional veil of secrecy and engage with other nations, most strikingly in sending ships to join the international antipiracy flotilla off the coast of Somalia this year.

COMMENTARY: PAKISTAN NUKE THEFTS FOILED (UPI, August 12, 2009): Washington -… Pakistan ’s secret nuclear storage sites are known to Islamist extremists and have been attacked at least three times over the last two years, according to two recent reputable reports.

…The first such attack against the nuclear-missile storage facility was on November 1, 2007, at Sargodha; the second, by a suicide bomber, occurred December 10, 2007, against Pakistan’s nuclear air base at Kamra; and the third and most alarming was launched August 20, 2008, by several suicide bombers who blew up key entry points to a nuclear-weapons complex at the Wah cantonment, long believed to be one of Pakistan’s main nuclear-weapons assembly points, where warheads and launchers come together in a national emergency…

…While not denying the three incidents, Pakistan has said repeatedly that its nuclear weapons are fully secured and there is no chance of them falling into the hands of Islamist extremists…

CHINA: U.S. SHOULD STOP MILITARY SURVEILLANCE OFF COAST (www.Stratfor.com, August 28, 2009): The Chinese Defense Ministry said August 28 that “the root cause of problems between the navies and air forces” of China and the United States is the “constant” U.S. military surveillance off China ’s coast, Agence France-Presse reported, citing a ministry statement. The ministry said that to avoid Chinese-U.S. maritime incidents, the United States should “decrease and eventually stop” its surveillance and survey operations. The spokeswoman for the U.S. embassy in Beijing, Susan Stevenson, said the United States “exercises its freedom of navigation of the seas under international law, while putting emphasis on avoiding any unwanted incidents.”

U.S., AUSTRALIA: MILITARIES TO ASK CHINA TO JOIN EXERCISES (www.Stratfor.com, September 2, 2009):…U.S. Pacific Command chief Admiral Timothy Keating and Australian Defense Force leader Angus Houston met in Sydney on September 2 and agreed to ask China to hold exercises and develop military ties “at the earliest opportunity.” The United States and Australia want to understand China ’s intentions, as both countries are concerned that China ’s military buildup might have purposes other than defense.

RUSSIA TO REVAMP AIR-SPACE DEFENSES (RIA Novosti, August 11, 2009): Moscow – Russia will create a new generation of air and space defenses to counter any strikes against its territory due to a potential foreign threat, the air force commander said on Tuesday.

“Foreign countries, particularly the United States, will be able to deliver coordinated high-precision strikes from air and space against any target on the whole territory of Russia,” Colonel General Alexander Zelin said, referring to the potential for new hypersonic and space-based offensive weapons.

“That is why the main goal of the development of the Russian air force is to create a new branch of the armed forces, which would form the core of the country’s air and space defenses to provide a reliable deterrent during peacetime, and repel any military aggression with the use of conventional and nuclear arsenals in a time of war,” the general said.

…The Soviet-era MiG-31 Foxhound supersonic interceptor aircraft will most likely be used as part of the new air-space defense network, as was intended when it was designed. “We are upgrading this system to be able to accomplish the same [air-space defense] tasks,” Zelin said. According to some sources, Russia has over 280 MiG-31 aircraft in active service and about 100 aircraft in reserve.

CHINA, RUSSIA: SHIPS TO CONDUCT JOINT EXERCISES OFF SOMALI COAST (www.Stratfor.com, September 17, 2009): Chinese and Russian ships, on antipiracy patrols off the coast of Somalia, plan to hold joint exercises, called “Blue Peace Shield 2009,” on September 18, testing communications links, simulating operations to identify vessels, and coordinating resupply methods, the Associated Press reported September 17.

CHINA SAYS MILITARY ARSENAL COMPARABLE WITH WEST (Christopher Bodeen, Associated Press, September 21, 2009): Beijing-China’s military now possesses most of the sophisticated weapon systems found in the arsenals of developed Western nations, the country’s defense minister said in comments published Monday.

Many of China ’s systems, including the J-10 fighter jet, latest-generation tanks, navy destroyers, and cruise and intercontinental ballistic missiles, match or are close to matching the capabilities of those in the West, Liang Guanglie said in a rare interview posted on the ministry’s Web site. “This is an extraordinary achievement that speaks to the level of our military’s modernization and the huge change in our country’s technological strength,” Liang said.