Dale Brown: Executive Intent

RUSSIA NEGOTIATES SALE OF 50 SU-33 FIGHTERS TO CHINA (Sinodefence.com, October 27, 2006): Russia and China are finalizing negotiations for the delivery of up to fifty Su-33 carrier-based jet fighters, at a cost of US$2.5 billion.

China is expected to initially get two Su-33 jets to be used for evaluation and operational trials on the ex-Soviet carrier Varyag China acquired from the Ukraine in 1999. The carrier is currently stationed at China ’s Dalian Shipyard, being refitted since 2002. Once commissioned to service, the carrier will be able to operate the twelve aircraft of Su-33, which are included as the first-option part of the current program.

Eventually China could buy up to fifty aircraft of this type, to equip the first indigenous Chinese-built aircraft carrier expected by 2010.

CHINA ’S ASAT TEST WILL INTENSIFY U.S.-CHINA FACE-OFF IN SPACE (Aviation Week and Space Technology, January 21, 2007): China ’s successful test of an antisatellite (ASAT) weapon means that the country has mastered key space sensor, tracking, and other technologies important for advanced military space operations. China can now also use “space control” as a policy weapon to help project its growing power regionally and globally.

…Although more of a “policy weapon” at this time, the Chinese ASAT shows that the Chinese military can credibly threaten imaging reconnaissance and other satellites operated by the United States, Japan, Russia, Israel, and Europe…

THE WEAPONIZATION OF SPACE (www.Stratfor.com, April 10, 2008):…The Pentagon intends to dominate space the same way it dominates the world’s oceans: largely passively, allowing the free flow of international traffic, but with overwhelming and unchallenged military superiority. That will include not only defending assets in space, but holding those of a potential adversary at risk…

But the trajectory of development and the challenges that lie ahead will sooner or later dictate space-based weapons platforms. (BMD [Ballistic Missile Defense] is just one of a variety of potential justifications and applications.) And since the United States intends to ensure that its dominance in space remains unrivaled, it will move preemptively to consolidate that control. At some point, that will include actual weapons in space.

As has been said of other matters, the debate is over. Space is an integral part of U.S. military fighting capability, and therefore in all practical terms it has been weaponized.

DECADE FORECAST 2005-2015 (www.Stratfor.com):…Russia is the only competitor with an outside shot of actually reforming its existing space program to the point of creating a near-global, near-real-time reconnaissance system. Add this to existing ballistic-missile technology, and a space-capable Moscow would pose a genuine threat to U.S. hegemony…

Of course, geopolitical and military alliances between any of these rivals could accelerate indigenous programs and capabilities. It is worth noting that Russia has made a virtual cottage industry out of exporting its own space expertise and technology to countries such as India, China, and Iran…

THE LASER GUN TAKES FLIGHT (www.popsci.com, November 10, 2008):…The first successful test of a plane-mounted laser gun came on August 7, when Boeing’s eighteen-ton chemical laser fired a beam from a C-130H aircraft and destroyed a three-by-three-foot target on the ground. It was the first time all of the ATL’s lab-tested pieces came together to vaporize a target…

RUSSIA SET TO BUILD NEW AIRCRAFT CARRIER (RIA Novosti, March 3, 2009): Russia ’s state-controlled United Shipbuilding Corporation (USBC) has disclosed some specifications of a new-generation aircraft carrier currently being developed for the country’s navy.

It appears that the new warship will closely resemble advanced NATO carriers also displacing sixty thousand metric tons. This revelation has been indirectly confirmed by media reports about the interest of Russia ’s top naval brass in the projects of France ’s Thales, a leading developer of advanced CVF carriers for the British Royal Navy and PA-2 carriers for the French navy.

Her dimensions will match those of the PA-2 with a standard displacement of fifty-nine thousand metric tons, while her full displacement will total seventy-five thousand metric tons. Unlike the French carrier, which will have a gas-turbine propulsion unit, the Russian ship will be powered by a nuclear reactor and will have a different air wing.

…The sufficiently large new-generation carrier will accommodate an air wing comprising thirty to thirty-six heavy-duty fighters, not to mention aircraft of other types.

A mixed air wing comprising twenty-four heavy-duty and twenty-four lightweight planes, including MiG-29Ks or advanced lightweight fighters, can also be deployed on-board the carrier, whose deck and hangars will also accommodate Unmanned Combat Air Vehicles (UCAVs), helicopters, and auxiliary multirole planes.

CHINA READIES MILITARY SPACE STATION; LAUNCH COINCIDES WITH SHUTTLE PHASE-OUT (Craig Co-vault, Spaceflight Now, March 2, 2009): China is aggressively accelerating the pace of its manned space program by developing a seventeen-thousand-pound man-tended military space laboratory planned for launch by late 2010. The mission will coincide with a halt in U.S. manned flight with phase-out of the shuttle.

…Importantly, China is openly acknowledging that the new Tiangong outpost will involve military space operations and technology development.

Also the fact it has been given a number one numerical designation indicates that China may build more than one such military space laboratory in the coming years…

RUSSIA BUILDING ANTISATELLITE WEAPONS (Associated Press, March 5, 2009): Moscow-Russia is working on antisatellite weapons to match technologies developed by other nations and will speed up modernization of its nuclear forces, a deputy defense minister was quoted as saying Thursday.

The statement by General Valentin Popovkin signaled the government’s intention to pursue its ambitious plans to strengthen the military despite the money crunch caused by a worsening financial crisis…

Popovkin said Russia continues to oppose a space arms race but will respond to moves made by other countries, according to Russian news reports…

DOD QUESTIONS GROWING CHINESE POWER (Associated Press, March 25, 2009): Washington – China is increasing its military power more rapidly and developing new “disruptive technologies” that are shifting the military balance in East Asia and possibly beyond, a Pentagon report said.

“…its armed forces continue to develop and field disruptive military technologies…that are changing regional military balances and that have implications beyond the Asia-Pacific region,” the report said. It said that included technologies for nuclear, space, and cyberwarfare…

CHINA ADDS PRECISION STRIKE TO CAPABILITIES (Defense Technology International, April 8, 2009): China has been developing and purchasing weapons for precision-strike warfare…The PLA’s (Chinese People’s Liberation Army) near-term goals appear to be greater asymmetric capabilities to target U.S. naval assets in the western Pacific and in space as part of an antiaccess strategy…

…A far less-noted potential co-orbital ASAT demonstration occurred on September 27, 2008, when the Shenzhou-7 manned spacecraft, which had just launched a BX-1 nanosatellite, passed within forty-five kilometers (twenty-eight miles) of the International Space Station…

…The U.S. and Japanese navies have long been concerned with the PLA program to create an antiship ballistic missile, by placing a maneuverable terminally guided warhead on the 2,400-kilometer-range DF-21, and likely, on the 600-kilometer DF-15. Asian military sources are also concerned that a new 3,000-kilometer version of the DF-21 may have multiple terminally guided warheads…