Рита Браун - Sour Puss

"What are the chances of grapes being tainted?" a tiny woman asked Professor porland.

"I would think terrorists would be much more successful if they destroyed hops," he replied.

This drew a laugh from the audience, since beer drinkers far outnumbered wine drinkers nationally.

Arch Saunders, a slight potbelly growing on his tall frame, stood up and said, "Professor Forland, you've discussed fungus and virus as agents. Are there other ways to kill crops, any crops, outside those you mentioned?"

Professor Forland pushed his large black-framed glasses to the bridge of his short nose. "There are. I hasten to add, they are not my expertise, but a casual knowledge leads me to believe that our enemies have access to Agent Orange, and to various other types of defoliants. As Professor Jenkins has reminded us, it's not access to these substances that's the real issue. Face it, they have them. The real issue is, can they deliver these agents where they willcreate the most harm? Unlike Professor Jenkins, I think they can. Let me modify that. I think they can create chaos to vegetation, to crops. Perhaps it is more difficult to infect or kill enough stock. Certainly Professor Jenkins would know far better than I, but in terms of, say, corn, it's not that impossible or even unthinkable if you have determined, well-trained people. We've been concentrating on mycotoxin contaminants, but let's reflect on our own history: the boll weevil." He paused as his audience sat utterly silent. "Insects are easy to disperse, they reproduce at a rapid rate, therefore they spread at a rapid rate."

Hy Maudant quickly spoke. "Indeed, Professor, but each insect has an Achilles heel. As you know, the sharpshooter," he cited the terrible pest to grapes grown south ofVirginia , "can't endure frost. SoSouth Carolina can't grow the type of grapes we can here inVirginia . We're safe. Any insect that would be unleashed could be stopped fairly quickly once you identified the vulnerability."

"Correct." Professor Forland pursed his lips. "Unless, monsieur," he acknowledged

Hy's origins, to the delight of the audience, "the insect has been genetically altered."

"Can't do it," Toby Pittman called out.

Professor Forland replied, "If not today then in some not-too-distant tomorrow."

"We do know that insects as well as viruses become adaptive." Professor Jenkins addressed the issue. "Look at how the protein shell of the AIDS virus mutates. And a more virulent AIDS strain developed, possibly in response to the drugs. It's one of the reasons, to date, that no effective vaccine has been developed. All that can be done now is to try to limit the virus once a human is infected."

"What are you saying exactly?" Big Mim wanted it in plain English, although she was capable of understanding what they were saying. She also knew many people would be embarrassed to ask for that. She was above embarrassment.

"I'm saying it is possible to create a supervirus. It is possible to create a bacteria resistant to conventional treatments. It is also possible to develop a superinsect." Professor Jenkins ran his hand over his dome.

"Has it been done?" Fair finally spoke.

"Nature is already doing it," Professor Jenkins flatly stated.

Emily Schilling, who specialized in exotic breeds of chickens, raised her hand, was acknowledged, and said only two words, "Avian influenza."

Professor Jenkins audibly exhaled. "H5N1. Julie Gerberding, Director of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta, said in 2005 that there is a real risk of avian influenza—bird flu transforming into a global threat comparable to the great influenza epidemic of 1918, which killed between twenty and forty million people."

The whole audience gasped as one.

Professor Forland added, "I believe Shigeru Ome, the World Health Organization regional director, was even more dolorous in his pronouncements. And if we know anything about virii, we know H5N1 will evolve, as well. There may well be H5N2s, etc."

Professor Jenkins nodded in agreement. "Rural southeast Asia lacks the means to halt the potential threat. It's spread by poultry traders and unfortunately has been found in wild birds inChina ."

"Consider these two factors quite apart from the social disorganization caused by wars, tidal waves, the Khmer Rouge, etc. The first factor is that chickens are used as currency inCambodia for many rural people. The second factor is it's one of their few affordable sources of protein. The third and most disturbing factor is that chickens die when infected with H5N1. Waterfowl do not. Ducks calmly go about their business, seemingly uninfected, but they spread the virus through their droppings."

Jim Sanburne, mayor of Crozet, asked, "Then what triggers an epidemic?"

Both Professor Jenkins and Professor Forland simultaneously answered, "Opportunity."

The two men looked at each other, smiled, then Professor Jenkins elaborated. "To date, the people who have died from H5N1 have handled infected or dead chickens or have handled human corpses. Within a few days of contact, the person develops a fever, coughs violently. They die in about ten days, and the percentage of those who die once infected is a very high seventy-two percent."

Another collective gasp in the roomprompted Professor Forland to soothingly amend Professor Jenkins's statements. "But the virus doesn't easily spread from birds to humans or humans to humans. You must have direct physical contact."

"True," Professor Jenkins said, then added more gloom. "But each time H5N1 finds a human host it has an opportunity to evolve into a more communicable form."

"Is there a vaccine?" Big Mim inquired sensibly.

"The French have manufactured a vaccine. Sanofi-Aventis SA is the company responsible. We are testing it here. The British are stockpiling Tamiflu. It's proven effective."

"Obviously, tracking human cases is a top priority, but the areas where the outbreaks have occurred make that extremely difficult," Professor Jenkins finished.

"Could terrorists harness H5N1?" Fair asked.

"If it evolves into a more communicable disease, I think they could. The delivery would be easy. Send infected people into major cities before those people show signs of the disease. That gives them maybe a two-day window." Professor Jenkins folded his hands together.

"That's monstrous!" Hy blurted out. "They would deliberately infect a man or woman and deliver them toParis orLondon orNew York ?!"

"Hy," Professor Forland calmly replied, "they flew stolen commercial airliners into the Pentagon and theTwinTowers . They've killed people inLondon 's subway and on a bus, as well. The terrorists considered themselves holy suicides. Why would human time bombs, if you will permit the description, be any different? They would willingly die of the Asian bird flu."

"So we'd better stockpile flu shots, too." Jim thought of his responsibility to Crozet.

"Remember the last flu-shot shortage in 2004?" Harry felt as uneasy as everyone else.

"Yes," Professor Forland grimly replied.

Professor Jenkins shifted in his seat. "Let us remember that biological warfare has been with us since siege warfare. Besiegers would toss decayed corpses over the town walls in the hopes of spreading contagion or fouling the water supply."

"And let us not forget that Lord Amherst, for whomAmherstCollege is named, gave blankets to the Native Americans that carried the smallpox virus for which they had no resistance." Professor Forland shook his head in resigned disgust. "Smallpox and anthrax are always a danger."

"You're saying terrorists could break in to labs and use our own developments against us the same way they used commercial airplanes." Harry cut right to it.

"It is possible," Professor Jenkins conceded, "but why break in to our labs when they can use their own? They have them."