Duncan Kyle - Terror's Cradle

But there was no need to ask. He repeated the word slowly, with a kind of awe, staring at the atlas with wide eyes.

CHAPTER FIFTEEN

For a few moments he stood there, perfectly still, with the kind of look on his face that Lancelot would have given the Holy Grail. Then he turned to me suddenly. The holy joy faded and his face hardened. 'Listen to me Sellers, and listen good. There are priorities and priorities. This is grade A class one, understand? Don't get in my way. Don't get in anybody's way! This is so important it's—'

I said harshly, 'Simmer down.'

He stared at me, then spoke more softly, but excitement still throbbed in his voice. 'I mean it, Sellers. You give us full co-operation, or else. I want every scrap of information you have. I want it now and I want it fast.'

`For Christ's sake! Who pointed it out to you! I'm cooperating.' •

He closed his eyes tightly for a second, he was calming himself deliberately. I said, 'What about Nikolayev?'

Òkay. I'll tell you. If you understand how important this is, maybe you'll be less of a son of a bitch. It goes like this. Nikolayev is a ship-building town. Right?'

Ì don't know.'

Àccept it. It's true. They build warships there. All kinds of warships. And we've watched them for years with photographic reconnaissance satellites. A year or two ago, they roofed in one of the construction yards. Roofed in the whole damn thing. And they've been building something under that roof.'

`What?'

He grinned without humour. 'Yeah, what? That's What we want to know. What we do know is that it's big and that it's top secret. God knows what that roof cost. But that's all we know, really know! But we suspect, and brother if it's what we suspect . . .!' He drew in a long, hissing breath.

Òne ship?' I said. 'Can it be as important as that?'

He gave that grin again. 'There's rumour, there's suspicion. There's conclusions and extrapolations and educated guesses. The ship they're building may be an aircraft carrier!'

I blinked at him. `So they're building another aircraft carrier? So what?'

He said, 'Not another aircraft carrier, Sellers. They only have one, the Kiev and she's small. A trial ship, that's all. This one may be a big attack carrier!'

It still hadn't reached me. 'I'm no student of naval strategy,' I said. 'What's sp significant about that?'

Ì'll tell you,' Elliot said softly. 'The Russian navy has

always remained basically a defensive force. They've built it up fast. It's modern and efficient. But its chief function has been to deny the US unrestricted freedom of the seas, particularly in waters within Polaris range of the Soviet Union. And to limit US options for intervention in areas where the Soviets also have an interest.

`But understand this. If they've started building attack carriers, there's only one reason.'

I said, 'I thought carriers were out of date.'

`You did, huh? Look, Sellers, if they're building attack carriers, it shifts the capabilities of the Russian navy from defence to offence. It means the Kremlin's extending its global reach. Attack carriers mean they're equipping their navy with seagoing airpower. And that means they're out to contest the US Navy's dominance at sea. They haven't had aircraft at sea before. Now maybe they're going to.'

Ì told you, I'm no strategist,' I said. 'They're changing their strategy. I see that. I even see the implications of an offensive posture as against a defensive one. But –'

He looked at me as though I were an idiot. 'Sellers, do you have any idea . . .? No, you don't do you? Listen,-if it's an attack carrier, one is no damn use at all. They'll have to build six or eight, maybe more, because each of their fleets will have to have at least one, otherwise there are weak points and the whole deal's stupid. Now, the cost of building even one attack carrier is so enormous, and the technological requirements so taxing, that it's likely to overstrain their whole technological capacity, slow down the space programme, everything. That's true, Sellers, even if you do have trouble believing it. Britain's phasing out carriers because she won't, soon, be able to afford even one. You know that?'

`No, I didn't.'

Òkay, think about the decision. In the minds of the Russian leaders, it's a massive decision, right? It's a crucial, historic choice. The demand on resources would be gigantic, the project would take maybe ten years of murderous effort and concentration of materials and manpower. It means they cut down on consumer manufacture, jack up steel production — Christ knows what it means. The internal political effects are big. But more important than that, it shows their intentions, long term intentions. Expansion of their spheres of influence. • Change of posture from defence to offence.

`Sellers, look. You asked me if one ship meant so much? This ship, this one ship, is probably the most important ever built. Not for itself, but for what it tells us. If the Russians are building an attack carrier, it means they're embarking on the next massive phase of Communist expansion internationally. It means a whole sweeping change in everybody's outlook; massive changes in international strategy.'

I watched him, fascinated, not doubting the truth of what he said. There was a sheen of sweat on his brow when he stopped. But even then he hadn't finished. 'If the ship under the roof at Nikolayev is an attack carrier, we're playing in a whole new ball game, all of us.'

I stood very still, absorbing it. Then I said soberly, 'You honestly believe Alsa brought that information out? '

Elliot took a handkerchief from his pocket and dabbed at his forehead. 'If it's from Nikolayev,' he said, 'It could be the answer. You may never have heard about it, Sellers, but this is international armaments mystery number one. And not just armaments either; it's economics on a critical level. Theirs and ours.'

Òurs? You said we couldn't afford—'

`You can't. Not Britain. I'm talking about the American shield, the big umbrella. Look at the other side of this and try to think some complicated Russian thoughts. They may be building the carrier. But maybe they're not. Maybe they're just pretending! Listen, they know all about photo-reconnaissance satellites. They should; they've sure put plenty up there. So some smart cookie in the Kremlin some place has this bright idea. 'Let's roof in a ship construction yard, comrades,' says this smart guy. 'They'll see it and then they'll start wondering what's going on undereneath, right? They'll wonder why all the extra secrecy. We build subs and everything else in open yards, so what's with the roof? They'll conclude we're building carriers,' he says. 'And if they think we are, they'll have to do something about it. Like build some more of their own.' You see the pattern, Sellers? It all works in reverse. If the Soviets are building themselves some attack carriers, then we have to build more, just to stay ahead. The cost to us is almost as stupendous as it is to them. Huge additional arms budget, big diversion of resources and material — the whole shebang. They've got us guessing and they know it. Carriers take years to build and if they've started already, we've got to start soon; strategically we daren't wait until they actually start launching.

`But, Sellers — and it's the hell of a big but — if all they're doing under that roof is building some tanker and taking their time about it, well then we're going to. be spending billions of dollars. We're going to be wasting billions of dollars. Right now they got us both ways. If they're building and we don't, the whole strategic balance changes. If they'

re not building but they succeed in forcing us to build, then they smack us a real economic sucker punch. And meanwhile all the dough they don't spend on a carrier goes into some other little sweetheart, like anti-missile-missiles -or anything else you can think of.'