Teddy Wayne - Kapitoil

“Why do you say that? Do you think they are lying about the attack?”

“No,” he says. “But they call them a terrorist group. You do not know what this group stands for. They do not define themselves as terrorists. To them, the French government is a terrorist group.”

“Yes, but the French government is not bombing civilians,” I say.

“No, they have simply colonized other countries for centuries and oppress Algerians in their own country.”

“Where are you getting these ideas from?” I ask.

“Just because I labor in a store does not mean I do not read, Karim.”

“I did not say you do not read,” I say. “I asked where you are getting these ideas.”

“From newspapers that are not about money and computers and are not published in the U.S.” Then he adds, “You should read one sometime.”

The sounds of people celebrating and cars honking in the street because of the Mets victory rise all the way up to my apartment.

“I have to go to sleep for work tomorrow,” I say.

We disconnect, and I consume my final dumpling, but its skin is now cold and has little flavor and I do not feel like microwaving it. The cars continue honking outside, and I open my window and lean my head out and shout for them to be quiet in Arabic, but of course it achieves nothing.

Alpha Phi = a social group for university females

claim responsibility = take responsibility for an event others view as a negative but that you are boastful of

date-rapist = a man who forces a female he knows into sexual activity

number-crunch = make intensive calculations

shoot an email = send an email, especially about business

to boot = in addition

vapid = non-stimulating

On Monday at the office I am even more quiet than average, which is nearly mute because on average I converse exclusively when someone first consults with me or if I have an urgent query.

During lunch, Dan reads The New York Times on the computer while he eats the Indian chicken tikka masala he orders daily and Jefferson scans baseball statistics.

“You hear about this French embassy bombing in Iran?” Dan asks. “ Times says a splinter terrorist cell took responsibility and vows more attacks. This shit’s not even front-page news, that’s how common it is. Why don’t they just incinerate their whole uncivilized backwater country and jack up gas prices even more?” He looks quickly at me. “No offense, Karim.”

“I am not from Iran,” I say.

“I know,” he says. “I didn’t mean anything by it.” Then he asks Jefferson about the fantasy baseball production of a player named Yoshii. Jefferson owns all the Japanese players.

In a few minutes I receive an email:

Sender: Rebecca A. Goldman

Recipient: Karim Issar

Date: Mon, 18 Oct 1999 12:26:18

Subject: Dan is a…

…jackass. (Not front-page news, either.)

After I research the word “jackass,” I smile at her. She reciprocates, and I feel enhanced, as we have had restricted conversation since our coffee meeting.

And then I have another mental image of the stars at night.

I research today’s crude oil futures ASAP. They have risen 77 cents. That is expected because of the news.

I use the search engine on The New York Times and input the phrase “Middle East.” It lists all the articles from the last 14 days about the Middle East. Of course, it is not always about terrorist attacks or war, e.g., the articles typically discuss government leaders meeting or business negotiations or other events that are nonviolent. I note which days the phrase appears most frequently, and how many times it appears. Then I correlate those days to the crude oil futures prices of that day or the next day.

Although I am not making intensive calculations, I think I see a correlation between how frequently The New York Times discusses the Middle East and the fluctuations of oil futures.

I input the names of specific countries, e.g., Saudi Arabia, Iran, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Iraq, and Qatar, which only produces approximately 0.5 million barrels per day, but that is a great amount for its small size.

The correlations appear stronger.

Schrub has a subscription to a service that scans all the major U.S. newspapers. I log in and input the country names again for the last 14 days.

The correlations appear very strong.

“Karim, want to do me a major-league favor?” Jefferson asks.

Whenever he asks if I want to do him a major-league favor it means he wants me to repair a glitch that he has caused himself.

I close up the windows about oil prices. I should not be laboring independently on company time anyway.

The remainder of the day I cannot contain my stimulation. Before Dan and Jefferson leave, they converse about a nightclub they are going to that is providing free tequila to promote its launch. This time I am careless.

Then Rebecca leaves, and I am free to labor on my project.

I can now utilize spreadsheets and other programs to determine if the correlations are accurate, and broaden my newspaper search to 60 days for additional coverage.

1. First, I decide that not every expression of a country’s name is equally integral, e.g., “Iran AND bomb” has more influence than “Qatar AND diplomatic talks.”

2. So I begin by employing a boosting algorithm that weights specific words, which I perform by reverse-correlation, so that I see what days the oil prices moved most sharply and then determine what keywords ignited their movement. “Terrorism” and “terrorist” are heavily weighted, of course, and so are “war” and “attack” and “gunfire” and similar terms. Words like “unrest” and “protest” and “demonstration” are in another class, and words like “treaty” and “diplomatic talks” are also in a different class. Also integral is that some words are important exclusively in pairs or in longer phrases, e.g., “white” and “house” mean little independently, but “White House” is critical. Words have elastic meanings from their context.

A.When a word or phrase proves that it has high predictive abilities, the algorithm boosts its weight.

B.The names of the countries and cities that produce more oil and are more volatile also have different weights.

C.More recent articles weigh more.

D.Although logic predicts certain actions, such as a terrorist attack, always raise the price, this is not true, as it depends on a constellation of variables, and in a few instances an attack actually lowers prices.

3. But because the algorithm is automated and it analyzes every word in an article, it also selects many words that I think no one else would pay attention to, such as “bitter” and “weary” and “resigned,” as in this sentence: “The Prime Minister, after a round of bitter questioning, appeared weary and resigned.” I think these kinds of words can in fact be more important because:

A.By the time a bombing has occurred, e.g., everyone knows about it and they can predict what will happen to oil prices and they act accordingly.

B.But fewer people read about a politician appearing weary and resigned after receiving bitter questions.

C.A few people do read it, however, and they begin acting in a predictable way; then a few more people follow their lead, and more and more, until it becomes as if everyone did read it, even though they did not.

4. I can aid the automated algorithm by examining articles manually, and as someone whose native language is not English, I must pay closer attention to the words to produce logic from them, and sometimes I observe things others do not about English.