Richard Shirreff - War with Russia

McCann looked around him and, although Bear knew the horrendous statistics, he found himself almost unable to breathe with the magnitude of what was being described.

Satisfied that he had made his message clear, McCann continued, “Now, the point for us here today is that the Russians moved these nuclear Iskanders to Kaliningrad to threaten NATO and destabilize the Baltics. Which they have certainly succeeded in doing. But that also means that, unlike their nuclear missile subs, which are hidden at sea, or their ICBMs, which are dug in far behind their borders where we cannot get to them, we could get at these. It is the fact that they are mobile that has made them potentially vulnerable to seizure. If we can first take down their command systems and stop them being launched. Which brings us back to Cheget…”

“So, how do they talk to each other?” asked Dillon, evidently guessing where this might be leading.

“By a number of means. The basis of the system is a two-way communications system called Signal A, with a sub-system known as V’yuga, all backed up by an emergency system: Perimetr. Signal A has a high degree of redundancy—that means back-up systems, in case the primary system fails—and is kept combat ready at all times. We know it is very reliable with several communications tracks, each with a different communications channel: radio, cable, satellite, tropospheric. V’yuga adds yet more backup with HF, VHF and a satellite link.”

“Sounds like they’ve thought things through,” commented Dillon.

“You’re dead right, ma’am. These guys know what they’re doing. On top of which, Signal A and V’yuga are interfaced electronically and algorithmically, which again ensures a high degree of security for all the communications channels. And as if that’s not enough, Perimetr—the back-up system—can transmit an order from the General Staff to the missile launchers direct, thus bypassing all intermediate command posts.”

McCann paused and the President gestured for him to continue.

“But there’s more to it than that. Despite the President and the Defense Minister having their own suitcase for command and control, actual physical control of the unlock and launch authorization codes resides with the military. In fact, the General Staff has direct access to these codes and can initiate a missile launch with or without permission of the political authorities.”

“So, if we captured the launch sites and the command posts, would we be able to take control of the missiles?”

“The million-dollar question, ma’am. We believe we can take control, but I will explain it at the end, so please bear with me. First though, while the Russians are focused on our main forces approaching the Baltics, 82nd Airborne will sneak in and secure the Kaliningrad launch sites. Meanwhile, our Special Forces will capture the command bunker from which all the sites are controlled. Once we’ve got them secured, we’ll redirect the missiles at the Russians. They’ll be bound to be threatening us once they realize what we’ve done, but we’ll be able to threaten them back. And with their own missiles. I can’t imagine the Russian people will exactly appreciate that scenario, especially once it’s all over social media, which we will ensure it is the moment it happens.”

Dillon leaned back and as she thought through the consequences and how it would work out politically, she began to smile. “If the President became a laughing stock after what the Latvians did to him in the forest, how much greater a humiliation this would be…”

Then her face hardened again. “But how many launch sites are there? How many missiles? And what do we have to put on the ground to grab them?”

McCann was ready for these questions. “We believe the Russians have got one hundred nuclear-armed Iskander missiles. Next slide please.” On the screen a high-resolution image of Kaliningrad appeared. “They’re on mobile launchers, but deployed at three protected launch sites.” And again, he directed his laser pointer at the screen. “Here, at Pravdinsk, Yuzhnyy and Ozërsk—with all the sites controlled from the command set-up at Pravdinksk—that’s here, in the center. As for numbers of our people. We’ll need to insert Special Forces, specially trained to adjust the missiles electronically, but also to act as pathfinders for the main force. They’ll be followed by an air assault force at each launch site to break in and secure the missiles.”

“How will you stop the Russians counter-attacking?” quizzed the President.

“Initially by the men on the ground—it takes time to plan and execute a major counter-attack—and then by holding them to ransom with their own missiles. But if it looks as if they’re not going to listen to reason, the ARRC will be ready with three divisions to punch in to Kaliningrad to secure and protect the sites. But the bottom line is this… Once we have the missiles and the launch codes, that’s when you politicians take over and tell the Russians to, first, back off or else and, second, get out of the Baltic states if they want Kaliningrad and their missiles back. And we believe they will have little choice but to comply.”

“That makes sense,” said Dillon.

“But we need one other key ingredient for this plan to work.”

“What’s that?” Dillon demanded.

“We’ll need to disrupt Russian command and control, both nuclear and conventional, for two reasons. First, we’ll need to suppress what is probably the most effective integrated air-defense system anywhere in the world. Second, we have to stop them using the missiles against us as we go in to grab them. The Kremlin has made it very clear that if there’s any threat against Russian territory, they’ll go nuclear. And Kaliningrad, as I’ve said, is undoubtedly homeland. Don’t forget either, they’ve told us outright that the Baltics now count as homeland as well. The only way this works is if they don’t see us coming. If they do, then the missiles could be flying.”

Dillon frowned. “So the risk is that they’ll target 6th Fleet and 2nd MEF at sea and the divisions forming up under the ARRC in northeast Poland? Particularly if they think we’re launching an invasion of Estonia and Lithuania?”

“Correct, ma’am,” replied McCann. “That’s why we have to disrupt those multiple nuclear communications channels I spoke about earlier: Signal A, V’yuga and Perimetr.”

“I get it,” said Dillon. “Disrupt his command systems, seize his command posts and missile launch sites, turn the missiles back on them, and then invite them to come and have a chat. From a position of genuine strength.”

McCann agreed. “That’s what we figured, ma’am. Then all you’ve got to do is suggest he extracts from the Baltics and he can have Kaliningrad and his missiles back… without working warheads, I’d suggest, but I’ll leave that to you. Meanwhile, we’ve got 2nd MEF and the ARRC with its three divisions ready to move into the Baltic states if the Russians show any reluctance to get out.” He paused. “But we’re still working on the cyber operation against the Russian communications channels.”

“Have NSA got an answer to that?” asked the President.

“Not yet, ma’am… but we’re hearing that the Brits might have. They’ve got a team in Kaliningrad who have been feeding us the latest intel on those rocket sites. And because they and their Forest Brother mates have been doing such a good job of it, we’ve kept Special Forces out of Kaliningrad altogether. All part of the deception plan.”

Bear saw the President look confused, as did McCann, because he continued his explanation.

“If we send Special Forces into Kaliningrad now and that is detected, let alone they get caught, then the Russians are going to smell a very large rat and ramp up their defenses. And it will be game over. So, for now, it’s no special ops until it becomes essential, nor any NATO forces on the Kaliningrad border. CIA tell us that their Russian sources are convinced we wouldn’t dare touch Russian soil. Which is why they are still thinning out their home garrisons and are using them to try and knock out the opposition in the Baltics. But this plan only works as long as this Brit keeps sending us high quality intel. If the team leader can do that and if we can drop our boys in and snatch the missiles without any being fired, well… the rest will be a slam dunk, ma’am.”