Amlan Roy - Demographics Unravelled

—Richard Lacaille, Global Head of ESG, State Street Corp; and Former Global CIO, SSGA

“Demography affects many facets of economic life, yet its influence is widely under-appreciated. Written by an acknowledged expert and based on a lifetime of study, Roy's book masterfully explains just why demography is so important to our future prospects.”

—Professor Sir Charles Bean, LSE; and Former Deputy Governor, Bank of England

“A very thorough and detailed account of many challenges facing both researchers and market practitioners in addressing difficult macroeconomic developments of modern times. The book challenges many cliches and stylised facts that surround demographics research and offers a fresh and comprehensive perspective on the subject. A must-read for students, policy makers and investment professionals interested in the intersection of demographics, macroeconomics and asset management.”

—Oksana Hrynchak, Analytics & Product Specialist, Bloomberg; and Formerly Credit Suisse, Goldman Sachs, & Bluecrest

Amlan Roy

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To Anju, Shonai, Lilu, and Ranga

Dr Amlan Roy is an experienced global macro-finance researcher and thought leader specialising in global macroeconomics and demographics. He presents to institutional clients in the private and public sectors across 30+ countries and is the founder of Global Macro Demographics. He is a research associate at London School of Economics' Systemic Risk Centre and an elected Honorary Fellow of the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries.

Until June 2021, Amlan was head of Global Macro Research and senior managing director with State Street Global Advisors, having joined them in 2017 as chief retirement strategist. He was managing director and head of global demographics and pensions research with Credit Suisse Investment Bank from 1998 to 2016. In a prior role as global EM strategist, he developed global risk and allocation models as an expert on financial architecture during the Asian crisis.

Amlan spent 12 years in academia, with a distinguished teaching career in the US and UK. He was UK ESRC Research Fellow, Ponders Fellow, a Boston University Doctoral Scholar and a Government of India National Scholar. He has a PhD and MA in financial economics from the University of Iowa, an MBA from the Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad and an undergraduate honours degree in economics from St. Stephen's College, University of Delhi.

Jodi tor daak shoone keu na aashe, tobe ekla cholo re.

—Nobel Laureate Rabindranath Tagore (1905; in Bengali).Translation: “If no one responds to your call, then walk the distance yourself”.

This book is the fruit of research efforts in the area of demographics over more than two decades. My initiation into demographics research owes a huge debt to Giles Keating, head of research at Credit Suisse Investment Bank, where I started the Global Demographics Project with him. Dick Hokenson, a collaborator, friend, and partner who joined Credit Suisse from DLJ in 2000, taught me a lot by sharing his knowledge as one of the experienced researchers in this area. Stefano Natella, former global head of equity research at Credit Suisse, was a strong supporter and believer, as was Lara Warner, business leaders (Gael de Boissard, Bob Jain, Tim O'Hara, Eraj Shirvani, and Stephen Dainton) provided management support at Credit Suisse, as did Rick Lacaille at State Street Global Advisors

Thanks to all my co-authors in demographics research (over the last two decades) for their collaboration, ideas, and support. Special thanks to Amy Le, my latest co-author and valuable research partner over the last four years. My growth as a researcher in this area owes a great deal to engagement and dialogue with global clients (pension funds, insurance companies, sovereign wealth funds, asset managers, endowments, private banks, foundations, central banks, regulators, hedge funds, private equity, and governments). Close partnership with several global sales teams helped me engage with global clients, and the sales partners have been a source of friendship and support.

Several influencers deserve a mention of gratitude: Andy Abel, Mukul Asher, Zvi Bodie, David Bloom, John Campbell, Jim Poterba, Steve Haberman, Andy Abel, Larry Kotlikoff, Andrew Ang, Angela Maddaloni, Orazio Attanasio, Carlo Favero, David Miles, Jim Bullard, Dirk Broeders, Theo Kocken, Luis Viceira, Tom Steenkamp, Elroy Dimson, Pablo Antolin, Arun Muralidhar, Mirko Cardinale, and David Blake.

Close friends Bala Venkatesh, Narayan Naik, Olivier Ledoit, David Webb, and Charles Bean have been there to debate, discuss, and teach me many things. Tom Frost and Tahir Wahid have been very special friends and colleagues in my career journey—my salute to them, too.

A big thank you to the Systemic Risk Centre and Financial Markets Group of the London School of Economics (LSE), which I have been affiliated with. Thank you to the CFA Institute and the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries for multiple conference speaking opportunities My thanks to the researchers and policymakers at the World Bank, International Monetary Fund, Asian Development Bank (ADB), and Inter American Development Bank (IADB).