Julien Rebotier - Risks and the Anthropocene

1 Cover

2 Title Page SCIENCES Geography and Demography , Field Director – Denise Pumain Geography of Risk , Subject Head – Samuel Rufat

3 Copyright First published 2021 in Great Britain and the United States by ISTE Ltd and John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Apart from any fair dealing for the purposes of research or private study, or criticism or review, as permitted under the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, this publication may only be reproduced, stored or transmitted, in any form or by any means, with the prior permission in writing of the publishers, or in the case of reprographic reproduction in accordance with the terms and licenses issued by the CLA. Enquiries concerning reproduction outside these terms should be sent to the publishers at the undermentioned address: ISTE Ltd 27-37 St George’s Road London SW19 4EU UK www.iste.co.uk John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 111 River Street Hoboken, NJ 07030 USA www.wiley.com © ISTE Ltd 2021 The rights of Julien Rebotier to be identified as the author of this work have been asserted by him in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988. Library of Congress Control Number: 2021945744 British Library Cataloguing-in-Publication Data A CIP record for this book is available from the British Library ISBN 978-1-78945-041-5 ERC code: SH2 Institutions, Values, Environment and Space SH2_7 Environmental and climate change, societal impact and policy SH2_11 Human, economic and social geography

4 Foreword

5 Introduction

6 PART 1: Toward Unprecedented Risks?

7 1 Coastal Risks: Coastlines Always Under Pressure 1.1. Introduction: environmental risks/natural risks 1.2. Desire for shores and climate change: the increase in coastal risks in the world in the 20th century 1.3. Systemic approach to the vulnerability of coastal territories 1.4. Interests and limits of the Anthropocene moment for thinking about coastal risks 1.5. References

8 2 Forest Fires in the Anthropocene: Issues of Scale 2.1. Introduction 2.2. The Anthropocene or the resurgence of questions about fire and firefighting 2.3. Fire management in France: a renewed interest 2.4. Fires, climate change and territory: a mobilizing subject? 2.5. Conclusion 2.6. References

9 3 Urban Climate: Agenda and Perspectives of a Climate Risk 3.1. An internationalized and interdisciplinary research topic 3.2. Making urban climatology knowledge operational: a challenge for action 3.3. Feedback of knowledge from the local to the global 3.4. References

10 PART 2: Recompositions for the Study and Management of Risks?

11 4 Permanence and Specificities of Risks and Their Management in the Anthropocene Era 4.1. The Anthropocene, paradox of a new era? 4.2. Restoration of mountain terrain: recompositions of policies centered on the correction of hazards 4.3. Knowing, telling and managing risks: levers and attributes of metropolitan power 4.4. The Anthropocene, an ideological amplifier of responsibility transfers? 4.5. Back to the future: the Anthropocene as a new avatar of “creative destruction”? 4.6. References

12 5 The International World of Disasters: Beyond Reflexivity, Surpassing Naturalism? 5.1. Introduction 5.2. Localized disasters dealt with internationally 5.3. Disaster science: a naturalistic framework 5.4. Understanding nature in disasters 5.5. Denaturalizing disasters or the arrival of reflexivity 5.6. What framing at the international level? 5.7. Friction between climate and disaster risk reduction framing 5.8. Conclusion 5.9. References

13 6 The Difficult Birth of the Risk Society and the Relegation of Social Sciences 6.1. Introduction 6.2. The Risk Society, an ambiguous grand narrative 6.3. Contrasting contributions of the social sciences 6.4. Social sciences caught in a world of constraints 6.5. Conclusion 6.6. References

14 PART 3 What Consequences for a Changing Modernity?

15 7 Understanding the Political Fabric and Effects of Ensemble Flood Forecasts in Europe 7.1. Introduction 7.2. Modernity and the anticipation of risk 7.3. Numerical weather predictions and the emergence of forecasting the future 7.4. Flood forecasting, ensemble predictions and probabilistic risk management 7.5. The promises and pitfalls of risk-based flood risk management 7.6. Flood risk management in the Anthropocene moment 7.7. References

16 8 Toward a New Security Deal? Reflexive Modernity, a Complex Turn and Shift to Uncertainty 8.1. Introduction 8.2. From the globalization of threats to the resurgence of uncertainty 8.3. From risk to threat: when complexity produces uncertainty 8.4. The Anthropocene or the twilight of the modern project? 8.5. Adaptation and resilience: transformative promise or conservative revolution? 8.6. Conclusion: an unprecedented collective challenge 8.7. References

17 9 The Imperative of Practical Wisdom in the Face of Anthropocene Emergencies: The Case of Climate Change 9.1. Introduction 9.2. The main characteristics of practical wisdom 9.3. Industrial modernity and denial of the prudential imperative 9.4. Practical wisdom in the 21st century 9.5. The imperatives of practical wisdom 9.6. Conclusion 9.7. References

18 Conclusion

19 List of Authors

20 Index

21 End User License Agreement

1 Chapter 1 Figure 1.1. Map of the world population in 2000 and the estimated population in ... Figure 1.2. Blankenberge beach, Belgium (source: C. Meur-Ferec, September 2005).... Figure 1.3. Diagram of the emergence and multiplication of coastal risks in the ... Figure 1.4. Systemic vulnerability diagram (source: from Meur-Ferec et al. 2008)... Figure 1.5. Map of the national coastal erosion indicator in France (source: Cer... Figure 1.6. Remains of the pebble crushing plant of Tréguennec, Audierne Bay, Fr... Figure 1.7. Lowering of the beach at the foot of a structure, Wissant, France (s...

2 Chapter 3Figure 3.1. Analysis map for the urban heat island in Toulouse (source: BD-Mapuc...Figure 3.2. Application of climate maps in urban planning (from Hidalgo et al. 2...

3 Chapter 4Figure 4.1. RMT policy display in front of the town hall of Scionzier (Haute-Sav...

4 Chapter 5Figure 5.1. Boat perched on the roof of a house in Banda Aceh, Indonesia, after ...Figure 5.2. Flyer presenting the UN-SPIDER organization in Spanish

5 Chapter 7Figure 7.1. Deterministic and probabilistic forecasts from the European Flood Aw...Figure 7.2. Simultaneous ECMWF forecasts. For a color version of this figure, se...Figure 7.3. Schematic view of the EFAS systemFigure 7.4. Example of flood risk mapping taken from the river Eden in the UK. F...

1 Chapter 1Table 3.1. Example of policy levers to address the risk of extreme temperatures ...

1 Cover

2 Table of Contents

3 Title Page SCIENCES Geography and Demography , Field Director – Denise Pumain Geography of Risk , Subject Head – Samuel Rufat

4 Copyright First published 2021 in Great Britain and the United States by ISTE Ltd and John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Apart from any fair dealing for the purposes of research or private study, or criticism or review, as permitted under the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, this publication may only be reproduced, stored or transmitted, in any form or by any means, with the prior permission in writing of the publishers, or in the case of reprographic reproduction in accordance with the terms and licenses issued by the CLA. Enquiries concerning reproduction outside these terms should be sent to the publishers at the undermentioned address: ISTE Ltd 27-37 St George’s Road London SW19 4EU UK www.iste.co.uk John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 111 River Street Hoboken, NJ 07030 USA www.wiley.com © ISTE Ltd 2021 The rights of Julien Rebotier to be identified as the author of this work have been asserted by him in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988. Library of Congress Control Number: 2021945744 British Library Cataloguing-in-Publication Data A CIP record for this book is available from the British Library ISBN 978-1-78945-041-5 ERC code: SH2 Institutions, Values, Environment and Space SH2_7 Environmental and climate change, societal impact and policy SH2_11 Human, economic and social geography