Alan Sipress - The Fatal Strain

141 a Chinese pedigree:Interviews and e-mail exchanges with Kennedy Shortridge. See also Kennedy F. Shortridge, “The 1918 ‘Spanish’ Flu: Pearls from Swine?” Nature Medicine 5, no. 4 (Apr. 1999): 384-85.

141 medical accounts of an American missionary:W. W. Cadbury, “The 1918 Pandemic of Influenza in Canton,” China Medical Journal 34 (1920): 1-17.

142 the Pearl River delta:Zhao Shidong et al., “Population, Consumption, and Land Use in the Pearl River Delta, Guangdong Province,” in National Academy of Sciences, Growing Populations, Changing Landscapes: Studies from India, China and the United States (Washington: National Academies Press, 2001).

142 “greatest mass urbanization”:This description comes in his tale of another emerging disease to explode out of East Asia: SARS. Karl Taro Greenfeld, China Syndrome: The True Story of the 21st Century’s First Great Epidemic (New York: HarperCollins, 2006), 9.

143 fastest growth on Earth:World Bank, World Development Report 1997 (Washington: International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, 1997), table 1.

143 admiration for Bill Gates:Gates was rated seven times more popular than any sitting member of the Vietnamese Politburo in a survey for Tuoi Tre newspaper. The issue, released in Jan. 2001, was pulled from the newsstands by authorities.

143 “The demand-driven Livestock Revolution”:Christopher Delgado et al., Livestock to 2020: The Next Food Revolution (Washington: International Food Policy Research Institute, 1999), 4. For a discussion of the “livestock revolution,” see also Christopher L. Delgado, Mark W. Rosegrant, and Siet Meijer, “Livestock to 2020: The Revolution Continues,” Jan. 11, 2001, paper presented at the annual meetings of the International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium in Auckland, New Zealand, Jan. 2001.

144 doubled the average amount of meat:Henning Steinfeld and Pius Chilonda, “Old Players, New Players,” in Food and Agriculture Organization, Livestock Report 2006.

144 surpassed that in developed ones:Ibid.

144 China alone has accounted:Ibid.

144 A large majority:Figures on China’s livestock production come from the Food and Agriculture Organization’s database FAOSTAT. For discussion of China’s demand for livestock products, see William P. Roenigk, “Keynote Address: World Poultry Consumption,” Poultry Science 78 (1999): 722-28; and Frank Fuller, Francis Tuan, and Eric Wailes, “Rising Demand for Meat: Who Will Feed China’s Hogs,” in Fred Gale, ed., China’s Food and Agriculture: Issues for the 21st Century, Agricultural Information Bulletin no. AIB-775, Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Apr. 2002.

144 Southeast Asia’s record:Figures on Southeast Asia’s livestock production come from the Food and Agriculture Organization’s database FAOSTAT.

144 the Indonesian egg:D.K.S. Swastika et al., The Status and Prospect of Feed Crops in Indonesia, UN Centre for Alleviation of Poverty Through Secondary Crops’ Development in Asia and the Pacific, working paper, no. 81, p. 23.

144 as meat prices dropped:“Managing the Livestock Revolution: Policy and Technology to Address the Negative Impacts of a Fast-Growing Sector,” World Bank, June 2005, p. 12.

144 the record is more mixed:On possible negative effects on poverty, equality, food security, and the environment, see Cornelius de Haan et al., “Livestock Development: Implications for Rural Poverty, the Environment and Global Food Security,” World Bank, Nov. 2001; Hartwig de Haen et al., “The World Food Economy in the Twenty-first Century: Challenges for International Cooperation,” Development Policy Review 21, nos. 5-6 (Sept. 2003): 683-96; and Hans Wagner, “Protecting the Eenvironment from the Impact of the Growing Industrialization of Livestock Production in East Asia,” special presentation to UN Animal Production and Health Commission for Asia and the Pacific, 26th session, Sub ang, Malaysia, Aug. 2002. On possible positive effects, see Christopher L. Delgado, Mark Rosegrant, and Nikolas Wada, “Meating and Milking Global Demand: Stakes for Small-Scale Farmers in Developing Countries,” in A. G. Brown, ed., The Livestock Revolution: A Pathway from Poverty? (Canberra: ATSE Crawford Fund, 2003); and Christopher Delgado et al., Livestock to 2020: The Next Food Revolution (Washington: International Food Policy Research Institute, 1999). On equity benefits in Thailand, see Christopher, Narrod, and Tiongco, Policy, Technical, and Environmental Determinants, ch. 3.2.

145 jutting into the fishpond:On the potential pandemic hazards associated with the mixed development of aquaculture and livestock production, see Christoph Scholtissek and Ernest Naylor, “Fish Farming and Influenza Pandemics,” Nature 331 (Jan. 21, 1988): 215.

146 A single gram of bird feces:Christine Power, “The Source and Means of Spread of the Avian Influenza Virus in the Lower Fraser Valley of British Columbia During an Outbreak in the Winter of 2004: An Interim Report,” Canadian Food Inspection Agency, Animal Disease Surveillance Unit, Feb. 15, 1004.

146 how to prevent epidemic contagion:See, for example, V. Martin, A. Forman, and J. Lubroth, Preparing for Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (Rome: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, 2006), ch. 5.

148 There was a time:John Steele Gordon, “The Chicken Story,” American Heritage , Sept. 1996.

148 nearly every four days:“Poultry Slaughter 2006 Annual Summary,” Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Feb. 2007.

149 But the watershed:Interview with Carol Cardona, Associate Veterinarian, University of California at Davis School of Veterinary Medicine.

149 safety measures to prevent disease:Interview with Cardona. In fairness, biosecurity remains imperfect. A study in Maryland found most poultry workers are given neither protective clothing nor facilities for on-site decontamination and hygiene. See Lance B. Price et al., “Neurologic Symptoms and Neuropathologic Antibodies in Poultry Workers Exposed to Campylobacter jejuni ,” Journal of Occupational and Environmental Medicine 49, no. 7 (July 2007): 748-55.

149 safeguard their investments:Interview with Goosen van den Bosch, head of technical services at Intervet.

149 generous avenue to infection:On the dangers posed by intensive poultry farming, see J. Otte et al., “Industrial Livestock Production and Global Health Risks,” Pro-Poor Livestock Policy Initiative Research Report, UN Food and Agriculture Organization, June 2007.

149 In the unnatural setting:B. Schmit, “Disease Prevention Crucial in Intensive Livestock Production,” Zootecnica International, July 1987, 49-51.

149 Thai commercial farms:J. Otte et al., “Evidence-Based Policy for Controlling HPAI in Poultry: Bio-security Revisited,” Pro-Poor Livestock Policy Initiative Research Report, UN Food and Agriculture Organization, Dec. 20, 2006.

149 lack of genetic diversity:“Managing the Livestock Revolution: Policy and Technology to Address the Negative Impacts of a Fast-Growing Sector,” World Bank, June 2005, p. 9.

149 “Once an influenza virus invades”:R. G. Webster and D. J. Hulse, “Microbial Adaption and Change: Avian Influenza,” Rev. sci. tech. Off. int. Epiz., 2004, 23 (2), 453-65.