Constantine Pleshakov - The Crimean Nexus

Realists argued that interference in Ukraine—past, present, and proposed—did not further American interests but hurt them. This is what Henry Kissinger had to say: “Far too often the Ukrainian issue is posed as a showdown: whether Ukraine joins the East or the West. But if Ukraine is to survive and thrive, it must not be either side’s outpost against the other—it should function as a bridge between them. …A wise U.S. policy toward Ukraine would seek a way for the two parts of the country to cooperate with each other. We should seek reconciliation, not the domination of a faction.” Ambassador Jack F. Matlock: “Americans, heritors of the Monroe Doctrine, should have understood that Russia would be hypersensitive to foreign-dominated military alliances approaching or touching its borders.” [14] Kissinger, “To Settle the Ukraine Crisis…”; Jack F. Matlock, “Who Is the Bully?” Washington Post , March 14, 2014.

Strategy experts Dimitri Simes and Paul Saunders wrote in the Washington Times that if, in the fall of 2013, the White House and the European Union had “offered half of what they are now providing Ukraine, ousted President Viktor Yanukovych would likely have signed the E.U. deal that he abandoned instead. If the White House and Brussels had been willing to enforce the February 21 agreement, Ukraine would have had a new government without providing the Kremlin a pretext to seize Crimea or leverage for new demands. By trying to have it all in Ukraine for free, Mr. Obama blundered into disaster.” [15] Dimitri Simes and Paul Saunders, “Obama’s Crimea Blunder,” Washington Times , March 31, 2014.

Veterans of American politics George P. Shultz and Sam Nunn: “Recent history has shown the damage done to global security and the economic commons by cross-border threats and the uncertainty that emanates from them. As far as Russia is concerned, the world is best served when Russia proceeds as a respected and important player on the world stage. …A key to ending the Cold War was the Reagan administration’s rejection of the concept of linkage, which said that bad behavior by Moscow in one sphere had to lead to a freeze of cooperation in all spheres. …Although current circumstances make it difficult, we should not lose sight of areas of common interest where cooperation remains crucial.” Shultz and Nunn mentioned securing nuclear materials, destroying Syrian chemical stockpiles, and preventing nuclear proliferation on their list of such areas. [16] George P. Shultz and Sam Nunn, “The U.S. Strategy for Keeping Ukraine Safe from Russian Aggression,” Washington Post , March 27, 2014.

One could add other items. If the United States is to continue the global “war on terror,” cooperation with Russia is imperative, whether in intelligence gathering, covert operations, or the United Nations. The Northern Distribution Network, the elaborate web of land routes connecting American troops in Afghanistan to seaports in the Baltic and Pacific, runs through Russia. U.S. astronauts need Russian rockets to be able to travel to the International Space Station (in May 2014, reacting to U.S. sanctions, Russia announced that it was not interested in maintaining the ISS past 2020). Many American businesses have deep connections to partners in Russia. To name just two examples, ExxonMobil is drilling for oil in Siberia and the Arctic; and a company developing spaceships for NASA, Orbital Sciences Corporation, has been purchasing rocket engines from the Russian manufacturer Kuznetsov in Samara. [17] “Rossiiski proizvoditel otkrestilsya ot avarii rakety Antares,” Lenta.ru, October 29, 2014, lenta.ru/news/2014/10/29/raketa (retrieved October 29, 2014).

The situation is paradoxical. In February 2016, the White House announced plans to quadruple military spending in Eastern European NATO countries. U.S. marines began prepositioning tanks and artillery in “classified” caves along the Norwegian-Russian border. Yet, at the same time, Washington started negotiating with Russia on the future of Syria and a joint fight against ISIS. [18] Ryan Browne, “U.S. Stationing Tanks and Artillery in Classified Norwegian Caves,” CNN, February 19, 2016, www.cnn.com/2016/02/18/politics/u-s-tanks-artillery-norwegian-caves (retrieved February 20, 2016).

If American rapprochement with Putin is still tentative and reversible, a number of European NATO countries want a solid anti-ISIS alliance with Moscow. In the immediate aftermath of the Paris terrorist attacks in November 2015, the French president François Hollande rushed to Moscow for consultations, breaking the diplomatic boycott of the Kremlin. [19] Hugh Schofield, “Hollande in Moscow: A New Era in Russian-French Relations?” BBC, November 26, 2015, www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34931378 (retrieved February 20, 2016).

If you listen only to American interventionists, you can get the impression that the single obstacle to European unity is Vladimir Putin. Unfortunately, things are not that simple. The main obstacle to European unity is Europe. The European Union, built and sold as a tightly knit alliance, was never meant to replace nation-states.

In the course of the crisis, “Europe” for all intents and purposes fell apart. Those of Russia’s neighbors that were once part of the Russian empire—Poland, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania—demanded a strong response. Russia’s economic partners—Germany, Italy, and France—tried doing business as usual.

Twenty-four hours after the infamous Crimea referendum, the Italian energy company Saipem pledged to build the offshore section of the South Stream gas pipeline. The state-of-the-art pipe-laying ship assigned to the task, Saipem 7000 , was already a familiar sight on the Black Sea: Saipem had worked for Putin before, laying the Blue Stream pipeline that brought Russian gas to Turkey. [20] “Saipem Awarded Contract for South Stream Offshore Pipeline,” The Maritime Executive, March 17, 2014, www.maritime-executive.com/article/Saipem-Awarded-Contract-for-South-Stream-Offshore-Pipeline-2014-03-17 (retrieved May 5, 2014).

On March 17, 2014, still at the peak of the Crimea crisis, E.U. energy commissioner Günther Oettinger said sanctions against Russia should not target the Russian economy. “It would be wrong,” Oettinger said, “to question the economic ties that have been built over decades. They are important for the economy and jobs in Europe and Russia.” Former chancellor Gerhard Schroeder went farther. At a meeting in St. Petersburg he proclaimed: “One should be speaking less about sanctions right now but instead about Russia’s security interests.” A furious John McCain declared that the leaders of Germany, starting with Angela Merkel, were “governed by the industrial complex.” The comment caused outrage in Berlin, which deemed the senator’s analysis “vicious nonsense.” [21] “South Stream Pipeline Project Frozen over Crimea Crisis,” EurActiv.com, March 11, 2014, www.euractiv.com/energy/south-stream-project-takes-crime-news-534038 (retrieved March 11, 2014); “EU Policy to Blame for Ukraine Crisis—Ex-Chancellor Schroeder,” Russia Today , May 12, 2014, http://rt.com/news/158432-schroeder-russia-sanctions-eu (retrieved October 2, 2014); “Obama, Merkel Aim to Display Unity Against Russia,” Fox News, May 2, 2014, www.foxnews.com/politics/2014/05/02/obama-merkel-to-display-unity-against-russia (retrieved May 2, 2014).

All of the big transnational oil companies, or “supermajors,” do business with Russia—BP, Chevron, ExxonMobil, Royal Dutch Shell, and Total, and three of the five are European. After a new set of sanctions was imposed in July 2014, BP lost $4.4 billion in market value within twenty-four hours. Austrian chancellor Werner Faymann commented: “I cannot approve of the euphoria of many in the EU over the success of sanctions against Russia. I see absolutely no cause for celebration. I do not know why we should be pleased if the Russian economy collapses.” [22] Nick Cunningham, “As Russia’s Isolation Grows, Oil Companies Caught in Middle,” July 21, 2014, EconoMonitor, www.economonitor.com/blog/2014/07/as-russias-isolation-grows-oil-companies-caught-in-middle/?utm_source=rss (retrieved September 2, 2014); “Austria Says EU Must Not Seek Collapse of Russian Economy,” Reuters, December 20, 2014, www.reuters.com/article/2014/12/20/us-ukraine-crisis-russia-austria-idUSKBN0JY0IY20141220 (retrieved December 20, 2014).